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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Cur 3.05 - Continuous 125/1 - stupid, stupid price. Not saying it will win but it started last season on 120 which, were he still able to run to it, would be deserving of a single-figure price here. He probably can't but I have doubts about some of the others so I think the price is worth some sweetie money and even a place return could bag a whole lot of sweeties.
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This was from 25 May this year (did finish last of 9 though). Same situation today 125/1. Was 13/8 f for Hardwicke at this meeting last year and 3/1 for Hong Kong Vase last December - both over more suitable 1m 4f though.

Might take out small sickness insurance, just in case.
 
3.05 - another two long pops:

Titanium Emperor 66/1, 4 pl
Too Soon - ditto

Both are on the coat-tails of the top rated in the race so strike me as overpriced with so much unknown about so many.
 
4.20 - another two

Royal Champion 66/1 - Wolferton win two years ago makes him a 16/1 shot [on that form]

Continuous 150/1 - As Mr W says above, is going to be allowed to run on his merits one of these days instead of as pacemaking fodder and when he does he’s going to make long odds look silly. However, I suspect they’re trying to get him into the Ebor off 105 so it’s entirely possible he’ll be the one putting the donkey into the donkey work here but I have to have a nibble at the price just in case ‘the lads’ are having one too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
4.20 - another two

Royal Champion 66/1 - Wolferton win two years ago makes him a 16/1 shot [on that form]

Continuous 150/1 - As Mr W says above, is going to be allowed to run on his merits one of these days instead of as pacemaking fodder and when he does he’s going to make long odds look silly. However, I suspect they’re trying to get him into the Ebor off 105 so it’s entirely possible he’ll be the one putting the donkey into the donkey work here but I have to have a nibble at the price just in case ‘the lads’ are having one too.
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Continuous is just married to Los Angeles now. He's more Ice Dancer than Audience.
 
Hunt Cup

No aftertiming here. You all know I took 100/1 Ancient Rome when the weights came out but I also took 33/1 The Liffey when Slim mentioned it on here (cheers, Slim, as it would not have been on my radar until I'd studied the form and the price gone) and Greek God when Chapman flagged it up last week so happy enough to have them onside.

Others I've now backed (in the last ten minutes but don't know if the prices have changed since):

Silawi 25/1, 7 places (but my stakes are being limited)
Sisyphean 20/1, 7 places (ditto)

I'll put my figures and thoughts on the race thread.
 
HMS President. Ascot 3.40 Fri.
Touched off in this 2 seasons ago. Running off the same mark.
50/1.... He is first reserve, so hopefully he gets in.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hunt Cup

No aftertiming here. You all know I took 100/1 Ancient Rome when the weights came out
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As did I although I flagged his last run at Newbury as not being off a yard. Plus I think Spencer suits him. My other one in the race is Bullet Point as Haggas loves a plot too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Royal Champion 66/1 - Wolferton win two years ago makes him a 16/1 shot [on that form]
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The way Royal Champion travelled into the race after chasing the pace bodes well for the rest of the season. Looks like he might be back in form. Certainly outran his odds.
 
The Cursor 3.05 tomorrow
If you can forgive him.his last run at Epsom he has a huge chance on his run behind Bedouin Prince.
Looks a huge each way price
Currently 50/1
 
LUKE said:
I would say the target for A Dream To Share is the amateur maiden at Galway followed by middle distance handicaps in the Autumn..
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A significant step up in trip to 1m 7f for A Dream To Share ( around 2/1 ) in tomorrow's 8:30 race at Leopardstown which is a qualified riders' maiden. Tom Weekes on irishracing.com agrees with you that the target is probably at the Galway Festival. A win on his third start could blow the handicap rating.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, 6.10 - Inside Matters 33/1, 6 places.
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I couldn't see why this should win, but Danny Tudhope rides it when presumably he has the choice of 4 - 2 of which seem to have a reasonable chance of being in the shake-up in Mirsky and Akkadian Thunder (who I might have fancied had he been on it).

An interesting ride tomorrow for Tudhope, who rides this course better than most. is The Lost King in the Britannia (5.00pm). He doesn't ride that often for Andrew Balding (4 from 20 in last 5 years and 14 of 20 rides have finished in the first 4). He was 50/1 earlier, but when I went to take that it was reduced to 40's, now 28/1 - but that may just be because his trainer had a handicap winner at Ascot around that time. Pretty difficult race that one and no extra places from any Bookies because of the charitable donations they make on this race.

I was expecting to put up Ramazan on here in the 6.10, but he has been backed down to about 12/1. This is a bit odd. He was 33/1 earlier in the week before final final declarations. Last time out at York, over 6f, he was around 16/1 on the morning of the race and drifted out to 33/1 at the off - completely missed the break and ran well pretty well from there to get within 7l of winner (I think he lost more than that at the start). I've mentioned him on here before as a tracker horse. This isn't the race I thought they would have in mind for him as he would be better with some ease in the ground, but he is extremely well handicapped if tomorrow is the day. I'm hoping they are waiting for something like the Great St Wilfrid. Of course I had to put a bit of sickness insurance on anyway.
 
Ramazan is off his lowest mark and a 5lb claimer makes it better.
Billy Lee is not a bad substitute for Akkadian thunder though.
So many with chances.
 
In the 5f sprint at 6.10 on Friday, Zayer is interesting in first time cheekpieces. Still 20/1 in a place, I just wanted to mention him before he no longer qualifies as a Longshot.

Archie Watson does well here with this type of speedster and he has disappointed a little so far this season. BF first time out at Sandown and slowly away at York, Friday could be the day it comes together.
 
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Friday, 3.40 - Auld Toon Loon 20/1, 5 pl - very unlucky at Chester last time and should relish the step up in trip. Shouldn't have to come too wide from stall 4.
 
Gold Cup.

For me this is a truly uninspiring renewal. I'm half-hoping the dentist phones me to offer me a cancellation appointment for my overdue root canal treatment. I could get emotional about that but not this.

I do hope Trawlerman wins cos I like Appleby and Buick as professionals and how they come across in interviews but I can't bring myself to back it so I've taken three longshots against the field and hoping I can end up in front on the race.

Coltrane 50/1 - historically has had the same OR as Trawlerman
Dubai Future 28/1 - only 2lbs behind on ORs
Yasin 80/1 - has a few more pounds to find but I have him and Illinois as the only improvers in the race and Yashin just might be a late improver. Maybe he'll make me a good save...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gold Cup.

For me this is a truly uninspiring renewal.
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...
Desert Orchid said:
Coltrane 50/1 - historically has had the same OR as Trawlerman
Dubai Future 28/1 - only 2lbs behind on ORs
Yasin 80/1 - has a few more pounds to find but I have him and Illinois as the only improvers in the race and Yashin just might be a late improver. Maybe he'll make me a good save...
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Kevin Blake has just made the same reasoning as me re Coltrane and Yashin.
 

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