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The 2025 Longshot Thread

In all seriousness, I've paid more attention to Gosforth Park than other tracks over the years for obvious reasons, and this looks like one of, if not the best, and/or most interesting racecards that I've seen at this place. Up to the 3.45 anyway, some good betting races.

Faint praise maybe, just saying what l see.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Trade Line won the Northumberland Plate in 1985 - that has to be a candidate for TFT's user handle if he ever changes it again.

Many happy returns.
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Happy birthday. Hope you get a few winners to celebrate.

If you do ever change your name, you have plenty of 1985 related options:

Last Suspect (Grand National)
Forgive n’ Forget (Gold Cup)
Oh So Sharp (Fillies Triple Crown)
Dancing Brave (2yo season)
Pebbles (Eclipse)
 
AOB often has longshots run into the frame at huge prices in the Irish Derby so for that reason alone I've dabbled with:

Serious Contender 40/1
Thrice 125/1

Edit - Shackleton as well, 125/1
 
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Slim said:
One for today that I've been following closely.

Comes with a warning: I’m completely guessing—but there’s merit.

Hamilton 6:45
Cougar – 50/1

Ex-JP horse. Since when did JP start selling horses?

Moved from Padraig Roche to Ben Haslam, then quickly to Iain Jardine and changed colours.

In just 88 days, Jardine has got him down from a mark of 85 to 63 with five quick runs—only once showing any real ability.

The interesting part: he now holds two entries. One today in an apprentice handicap, and another back at Hamilton on Wednesday in a 0–65.

If he wins today off 63, he gets no penalty for Wednesday because it’s an apprentice race today.

If ever this horse is going to spark into life, it’s going to be today.

He won on soft ground on the Flat in Ireland, and this will be the first time he’s encountered any cut in the ground in the UK—has to help.

I could be miles wrong, but at the price, it's worth finding out.
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Running tomorrow, 4:00 Musselburgh over 1 mile off a mark of 60 plus a 5 pound claim. 9/1.
 
Saturday.
Sandown 1.50. If Manaccan can step forward from his first run in a while. He has the back form, to get involved in this. Sky going 50s 4 places.
Sandown 2.25.
Galeron ran well from a poor draw in the Lincoln. 3lb lower now. Hills took Ancient Rome out of this, to rely on this one. 35s with a boost at Ladbrookes.
Don't think these prices will last long.
 
Haydock 3.15 - Sol Cayo 22/1, 5 places - I actually went in at 14/1 on Thursday evening anticipating a move for it but it went the other way and I noticed it went out to 25s last night. I see it's come back in and is blue pretty much across the board so I've gone in again at the 22s. I have it joint-top on current figures and it might just be a late improver unexposed at this trip.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 3.15 - Sol Cayo 22/1, 5 places - I actually went in at 14/1 on Thursday evening anticipating a move for it but it went the other way and I noticed it went out to 25s last night. I see it's come back in and is blue pretty much across the board so I've gone in again at the 22s. I have it joint-top on current figures and it might just be a late improver unexposed at this trip.
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I knew my fate after half a mile. The leaders were far too fast and he got caught up in it.

The winner looks smart. These were my figures for the race and I opted for the each-way price rather than take two against the field. Such is punting.

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Purest Time has been mentioned for a recent good class handicap or two (pretty sure by DO). 3.40 Pon today, a Class 2

I'll suggest it's possibly only a matter of time before IW finds something. And has a Stewards Cup entry.

PT has some GS form in France, though unclear how 'good' that was. But it indicates today's ground may not totally inconvenience.

I'll venture 40-1 with WH is big enough to find out if today is the day. Only 8 runners being a little sweetener on top, with nothing standing out as unbeatable.
 
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Thursday, Nwm 3.00 - Azure Zain 22/1, 5 places - his Tapeta win last time appears to be treated with some disdain by the market. It was admittedly a very modest race and the general assumption is that the 73-rated runner-up was below form, and the third did nothing for the form next time, but if the runner-up, a 7/4 shot, did run to its mark then the 25lbs beating Azure Zain dished out to it would make its mark here of 85 look lenient. It won't cost much to find out.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thursday, Nwm 3.00 - Azure Zain 22/1, 5 places - his Tapeta win last time appears to be treated with some disdain by the market. It was admittedly a very modest race and the general assumption is that the 73-rated runner-up was below form, and the third did nothing for the form next time, but if the runner-up, a 7/4 shot, did run to its mark then the 25lbs beating Azure Zain dished out to it would make its mark here of 85 look lenient. It won't cost much to find out.
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Out to 50s, have gone in again.

Now is the time to punt like fannies...
 
Totally unsatisfactory race (unless you got a return, obviously).

Talk about how good UK jockeys are at judging pace? Even a race-reading troglodyte like me could see they went far too fast up front.
 
July Cup.
Run to Freedom has been runner up in 2 Group 1s, including this. Dropped a few pounds since. No denying he would've liked a drop of rain, but has won on good to firm. Trainer won this with Limato. All things considered. That 100/1 5 places ( skybet ), has tempted me.
 
Bunbury Cup - Myal 25/1, 4 places (PP & Sky) - this is a rick, I believe. It's generally around 14/1, shorter in a place or two. I suspect Oisin Murphy would have been offered several of those above Myal in my ratings table. That one was fourth in the Buckingham Palace but had beaten that winner the time before at Chester. That form would put Never So Brave in here on 106 compared with its current 115 so I’m going to take a chance on assuming that for some reason Myal just didn’t run its race at Ascot. At the price it won’t cost much to find out.
 
July Cup - Night Raider 22/1, 4 places - There has to be a chance this is targeting something like the Stewards' Cup, for which it does hold and entry, or the Ayr Gold Cup, a race the trainer loves to target, off 105 but its form on the Tapeta last back-end gives it every right to be in the mix here and it does also hold entries for all the sprinting G1s here and in Ireland. That day at Newcastle it demolished a field of decent types. Literal form lines using the ORs of the next seven home give him ratings of 121, 116, 122, 119, 121, 124 and 122. He blasted off in front that day and they never got a sniff of him. He hasn't hit form this year but I'm not sure he's been asked to. Most of those collateral figures would be just about good enough to beat Notable Speech's best ratings. Again, it doesn't cost much to find out and losses will be recouped in due course, I reckon.
 
Robicheaux said:
July Cup.
Run to Freedom has been runner up in 2 Group 1s, including this. Dropped a few pounds since. No denying he would've liked a drop of rain, but has won on good to firm. Trainer won this with Limato. All things considered. That 100/1 5 places ( skybet ), has tempted me.
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I agree, I think Run To Freedom offers a bit of each way value in this race.
I missed the 100/1 ,but it's still 80/1 in one place and 66/1 generally
There is no standout performer in this race and he may surprise a few here and grab a place at huge odds.
 
He's a Monster (2.50 Newm) ran a great race on his seasonal return at Newcastle and would probably have won with a better draw. Of course More Thunder is a big danger, but 22/1 is a ridiculous price if he can replicate that run. Sam James replaces Faleh Bughenaim and extra furlong should help. Downside is his Turf record, compared to AW. I also liked Aalto in this this race. He won it last year, very easily too, and only 4lb higher.

Ides of March - details on July Cup thread.

Erzindjan (3.10 York). I want to watch this one as he has his first run for Terry Kent. On a day with so many meetings, it's odd that Ray Dawson comes here for one ride on an apparent no-hoper (80/1). He has some old Meydan form (when ridden by Dawson) which would make him competitive. Thunder Run most likely winner.

Emperor's Son (5.25 York). Hasn't had much racing, but has some ability and wouldn't surprise if he pops up at a big price one day.

Rosario (4.50 Ascot). Another one for Taryn Langley (7). 28/1 is generous. Really fancy Jakajoro for this though. Gave She's Quality, 5lb, but beaten 3l when trained in Ireland last season. Sold for 200,000 gns last October. 2 runs at Meydan and 2 more for new connections last month, all unplaced, but he's on a decent mark now and looks ready to strike. Only 14/1 though, so I can't put him on here.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Erzindjan (3.10 York). I want to watch this one as he has his first run for Terry Kent. On a day with so many meetings, it's odd that Ray Dawson comes here for one ride on an apparent no-hoper (80/1). He has some old Meydan form (when ridden by Dawson) which would make him competitive.
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I agree and for the same reasoning. Limited to 62p ew at 8/1 (6pl) :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: Had to top up elsewhere at shorter.
 
Acrisius 4.55 Chester.

20/1 with Bet365 (so no good for me), but only 10/1 elsewhere. 4l 7th in 3yo Dash at Epsom. This should be easier and quite likely to be able to lead from Stall 4.
 
Bunbury Cup - Aalto (28/1, 4 pl) has now drifted to more than qualify for the thread. The drift is a worry. Maybe they are accepting they won't beat the favourite and will target the big 7f handicap at the KG meeting but the favourite cold end up going there and defying a new mark. As I commented on the race thread, Aalto is 4lbs higher than when he fairly ran away with this last year and is in with a shout in a race whose history is smattered with multiple winners, the most recent of which was Motakhayyel who also defied a 4lbs higher mark in 2021 when following up from the previous year. The race’s history also shows that recent form figures, or even seasonal ones, can count for nothing as the race is often won by ‘sleepers’, a moniker which might reasonably be attributed to Aalto. I would not be at all surprised if the plan was this race since the moment he passed the post last year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Bunbury Cup - Aalto (28/1, 4 pl) has now drifted to more than qualify for the thread. The drift is a worry. Maybe they are accepting they won't beat the favourite and will target the big 7f handicap at the KG meeting but the favourite cold end up going there and defying a new mark. As I commented on the race thread, Aalto is 4lbs higher than when he fairly ran away with this last year and is in with a shout in a race whose history is smattered with multiple winners, the most recent of which was Motakhayyel who also defied a 4lbs higher mark in 2021 when following up from the previous year. The race’s history also shows that recent form figures, or even seasonal ones, can count for nothing as the race is often won by ‘sleepers’, a moniker which might reasonably be attributed to Aalto. I would not be at all surprised if the plan was this race since the moment he passed the post last year.
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Aalto as big as 35/1 now. I backed him at 14/1 last night!

Obviously this drift is a worry, but he was so impressive when winning this last year, the 4lb rise would not have stopped him then, I’ll be backing him him again around this price. If he disappoints again today, he’ll be more, or less, back to last years winning mark and one for the tracker.
 

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