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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Doncaster 3.10

Crystal Flyer has to improve a lot to get involved on official ratings, however, she ran well enough last time in fifth when once again racing too keen and freely. Connections stick the first time cheekpieces on tomorrow and I'm prepared to take a chance they can work the oracle on this horse. The drop in trip and cut in the ground may suit her too. At odds of 66/1 or thereabouts I'd be delighted if she placed.
 
Nocte volatus 2.40 Aintree 33/1
Has a very good record fresh and has a very consistent record.
His ability to cope with these fences has to be taken on trust, but he looks an attractive each way price.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Doncaster 3.10

Crystal Flyer has to improve a lot to get involved on official ratings, however, she ran well enough last time in fifth when once again racing too keen and freely. Connections stick the first time cheekpieces on tomorrow and I'm prepared to take a chance they can work the oracle on this horse. The drop in trip and cut in the ground may suit her too. At odds of 66/1 or thereabouts I'd be delighted if she placed.
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She finished 6th at SP of 100/1 today, after finishing well from a pretty difficult race position, near enough last she was for about a mile. The cheekpieces did appear to settle her down a bit.

One for another day perhaps. She's got form on the all weather so I'll watch out over the winter to see if she runs on that.
 
My first contribution to the thread for a while and I wouldn't say there is any confidence behind this one but I've taken 50/1 Haddex Des Obeaux in the Schloer tomorrow.

The last time it was seen, it was only a 10/1 shot in the Tingle Creek (for the Moores) and finished less than five lengths behind Jonbon at levels and whom it meets on 6lbs better terms.

You don't need me to tell you the many dangers of taking that kind of form literally and HDO has been off a long time. He had a season and a half with Hendo who couldn't even get him to the track so has obviously had issues but McCain sends him down here with Hughes riding.

Maybe the plan is to get it to the Grand Annual off 140 (currently 153) but I just thought the 50s looked wrong. Clearly if the plan is to ride it cold - it's usually a front-runner - then I'll know my fate by the first fence but it doesn't cost much to find out if they fancy its barra a wee bit here.
 
I was going to make a point of backing front runners with the current soft going everywhere and I like backing horses that have been off the track for a long time so I’ll definitely put my three pennies on that one!
 
Seven runners, so not an ew play. However, watch what HDO does at the first fence to see if he will lead. He’ll still be a good in-running price, if he’s leading at the first fence.
 
Littlefoot 3.30 chelt tomorrow 80/1 boosted to 92/1 with William hill
Has a fairly consistent record in Ireland and Darragh O Keefe has been booked to ride.
The form is difficult to weigh up ,but he looks a stayer and the ground should suit.
Looks too big a price , but time will tell.
Good luck all👍🏻
 
De Temps En Temps 25/1 chelt 3.30 tomorrow's
I have decided to add this to Littlefoot in this race.
Won here at Cheltenham last time out staying on well over 2 furlongs shorter.
Won despite almost falling and looks an attractive price in an open looking race.
 
PPGC - I've taken 40/1 The Other Mozzie. As a second-season novice it is as entitled to improve as anything else and I suspect it's there on its merits rather than to make the running for the stablemate and the claimer seems to be doing very well for the yard this season. I thought on Thursday that 20/1 was generous enough so I'm happy to take the punt at double that with some much shorter shots taken out in the meantime.
 
Haydock, Saturday, 2.25 - I've taken 25/1 Esprit Du Potier. That price strikes me as very generous. It won't be my main bet, mind.
 
Saturday, Newbury 2.15 - Col Du Pre' - for the life of me I can't see why this is 66/1. Its French rating translates to 140 and it gets in here off 127. With only three runs to its name it should be up to improving a fair bit more into its second season and I wouldn't want to be offering double figure odds, let alone 66s. If it isn't trying, fair enough, but I want it onside at those odds.
 
Newbury

1.50 King Of Kingsfield has ran several stinkers at Cheltenham, so I'm content to put a line through the last days performance. Apart from there, he's not done a lot wrong over fences, especially with the tongue tie applied, and looks like a horse who might even appreciate stepping up in trip.

Now given I couldn't make heads or tails of the market leaders, in terms of sorting out who was the wheat from the chaff, (this arguably could be because I'm just an awful judge 😂👍), I thought why not go even further left field altogether, by backing this one at the very big price each way in this trappy little six runner race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Newbury 2.15 - Col Du Pre' - for the life of me I can't see why this is 66/1. Its French rating translates to 140 and it gets in here off 127. With only three runs to its name it should be up to improving a fair bit more into its second season and I wouldn't want to be offering double figure odds, let alone 66s. If it isn't trying, fair enough, but I want it onside at those odds.
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He also held an entry for today's 2:25 race at Newbury ( class 2 two and a half mile handicap chase ) but may have been a couple of pounds out of the handicap with the 4-y-o weight for age allowance off 127. Trainer doesn't usually have runners in top two mile handicap hurdles, and the move from France to Venetia Williams was notified only six days ago. It's more likely to be a longer term project ( handicap chases next season ), but the 66/1 is rather tempting.
 

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