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The 2025 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap)

The Fortune Teller said:
I know plenty are sweet on The Liffey, are there any others worth noting, maybe at bigger prices?
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I couldn’t resist backing Toimy Son at 66/1 and again when he drifted to 100/1. The drift suggests it is not his day today, but as I’ll be following him for small stakes until I think it is, I’m happy to take the chance.

He won the Golden Mile, very easily and from a bad draw, at Goodwood last year off only 88, and ran well in 3 good handicaps after, off today’s mark of 95. He hasn’t done much in two starts this season and maybe best in the Autumn and with a bit of ease in the ground (though the Golden Mile was on GF).

Talis Evolvere may also be a little overpriced at 66/1.

I did find it difficult to reduce my shortlist though for this race. I ended up on Sisyphean, but without much confidence, and he has drifted to 25/1.
 
I couldn't have backed My Cloud at the 9/2 let alone the 3/1 but he won like a 6/4 shot.

I'm a big fan of Varian so find it hard to feel bad about him beating one of mine, Greek Order, on this side and another of mine, Bullet Point, on the far side. I don't think I've got any return from the race unless I got four places GO but that's a pittance.

What I will say is take the winner out and GO has pissed up on this side and I don't see how the handicapper can put him up so they'll no doubt find a nice race for him so long as they can avoid My Cloud.

The sectionals will also be interesting. I suspect MC won despite the draw rather than because of it.
 
The days of 7/1 the field handicaps is gone in my opinion. The algorithm always finds one it wants to bet.
 
My cliff pony finished third on this side just didn't quicken as well as the winner although he was tracking him. Goodwood over 1m2 then.
 
I believe only 1 person in 37 entries put My Cloud in their compo list today.

Not sure why, can only think many felt he was far too short.

But then he goes and wins.
 
jinnyj said:
We all thought we were far cleverer than the obvious
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I'm not sure that's the case, though. The horse is clearly on an unusually steep curve. It's not as though he was 7lbs well in despite a 5lbs penalty. He had been hiked for his last win and needed to improve another big chunk. He did, and then some, and with ease. It was a hugely impressive win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure that's the case, though. The horse is clearly on an unusually steep curve. It's not as though he was 7lbs well in despite a 5lbs penalty. He had been hiked for his last win and needed to improve another big chunk. He did, and then some, and with ease. It was a hugely impressive win.
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But he market knew. Ratings are ratings.
 
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Didn't Bopedro run well.i did have a pound on the exchange at 100/1 just in case.

I don't think my cloud was as impressive as Maurice does.Bullet point was giving it 2lb.it would have been interesting if they had been on the same side.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You mentioned 'the algorithms' finding it, Slim.

Can I ask how that works?
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God, it’s a hard one to explain in writing. Basically, there are very sophisticated people now who mine massive datasets on racing and spit out the ‘true price.’ Most of the ‘late moves’ aren’t gambles at all — they’re simply the model men getting enough liquidity on Betfair to show their hand, usually two minutes before the off.

I often reference the dynamic on my Substack. This article being an example:

open.substack.com

Point Blank: The Nerd Reich – Why Betting on Horse Racing Is Finished

My phone buzzed on Wednesday.
open.substack.com open.substack.com
 
So are these databases not available to the general betting public? If so, where are they?

And wouldn't bookmakers also have access to them?

It's a concept I'm struggling with.

I get the principles and maths re sectional analysis.

Likewise with form analysis.

I get that some people are better at reading form than others.

I don't get how databases can spit out winners.

And I certainly don't get how they could make My Cloud a good thing even it it proved to be correct.

I won't sleep tonight and I'm thinking I might as well give up.
 
Slim said:
The days of 7/1 the field handicaps is gone in my opinion. The algorithm always finds one it wants to bet.
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it's certainly a trend in the festivals and big Saturday races, definitely something that warrants further attention for those who bet on the exchanges.
 
Desert Orchid said:
So are these databases not available to the general betting public? If so, where are they?

And wouldn't bookmakers also have access to them?

It's a concept I'm struggling with.

I get the principles and maths re sectional analysis.

Likewise with form analysis.

I get that some people are better at reading form than others.

I don't get how databases can spit out winners.

And I certainly don't get how they could make My Cloud a good thing even it it proved to be correct.

I won't sleep tonight and I'm thinking I might as well give up.
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You've asked me a lot of questions there that I can't do justice in the time I've on me tonight. I might write an article on it.

Bookmakers are modelling now too. They'll eventually catch up. They are a long way off yet.

Essentially they have access to better data, built themselves. They don't spit out winners, they spit out 'true prices' and play the market accordingly.

Over the years I've had access to their numbers, trust me, if they make My Cloud 3/1 you'll do your brains long-term laying 4/1. They don't study form. They simply bet the numbers.
 
Wouldn't the similarly heavy move for Poniros have been driven by the numbers too?

I know that Tony Bloom, for example, uses data to drive his footballing operations, and does so successfully, and that it's a growing trend in the football transfer market.

And how do we tell the difference between a market move that's driven by numbers and one that's driven by something else?

Don't feel pressured - I know you won't anyway - to answer these questions. I'm the type that gets very curious about certain things and ends up chasing my tail trying to make sense of them.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wouldn't the similarly heavy move for Poniros have been driven by the numbers too?

I know that Tony Bloom, for example, uses data to drive his footballing operations, and does so successfully, and that it's a growing trend in the football transfer market.

And how do we tell the difference between a market move that's driven by numbers and one that's driven by something else?

Don't feel pressured - I know you won't anyway - to answer these questions. I'm the type that gets very curious about certain things and ends up chasing my tail trying to make sense of them.
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I actually went to the trouble of finding out who bet that because the price was ludcrioius. Bloom bet it. The models bet Reaching High.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
And how do we tell the difference between a market move that's driven by numbers and one that's driven by something else?

Don't feel pressured - I know you won't anyway - to answer these questions. I'm the type that gets very curious about certain things and ends up chasing my tail trying to make sense of them.
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The models bet into the market now pre 9am. Then what I would call the 'big boy model' plays with 2 minutes to the off. Those that play lastest have the sharpest numbers.
 
Slim said:
The models bet into the market now pre 9am. Then what I would call the 'big boy model' plays with 2 minutes to the off. Those that play lastest have the sharpest numbers.
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Forgive me, Slim, I’m coming up 85yo so treat me gently :)

I have a million questions (looking forward to your article if you write it), but for the moment just- what is the model based on?
 
barjon said:
Forgive me, Slim, I’m coming up 85yo so treat me gently :)

I have a million questions (looking forward to your article if you write it), but for the moment just- what is the m
odel based on?
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All available data.
 
barjon said:
Mmm, well I do that on a very small scale, but a lot of the time the data is contradictory.
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Well, that’s the point. The models factor everything in, weigh it all up, and spit out a price. Stats men are some of the stupidest people in betting.
 
And I suppose AI is going to make it even more sophisticated, although if company Help Chat Lines are anything to go by it’ll be a long time coming. Thx, slim.
 
Slim said:
You've asked me a lot of questions there that I can't do justice in the time I've on me tonight. I might write an article on it.

Bookmakers are modelling now too. They'll eventually catch up. They are a long way off yet.

Essentially they have access to better data, built themselves. They don't spit out winners, they spit out 'true prices' and play the market accordingly.

Over the years I've had access to their numbers, trust me, if they make My Cloud 3/1 you'll do your brains long-term laying 4/1. They don't study form. They simply bet the numbers.
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Morning G,

A couple of questions if I may, obviously not obliged to answer or reveal all....

Presume they are targetting more than one horse in some races? Also are they backing and laying to their numbers?

Noticed a few late plunges yesterday on exchange, Lennilu (14.30), Pinhole (15.05), Crimson Advocate (15:40), Blue Brother (17:00) and Old Is Gold (18:10). A couple of these must have been driven by the Big Boy Model?

Anyway look forward to the article ;)

Cheers
 

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