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The 2025 York August Meeting Day 1 (Wednesday) thread

International
Birr Castle | Robert Havlin
Danon Decile | Keita Tosaki
Ombudsman | William Buick
See The Fire | Oisin Murphy
Daryz | Mickael Barzalona
Delacroix | Ryan Moore
 
Aidan O'Brien believes š—Ÿš—¢š—”š——š—¢š—” š—–š—œš—§š—¬ is on a "lovely mark" heading into the @SkyBet Ebor at @yorkracecourse This race has been the plan for the son of Justify since he won at the 2024 Dante meeting

Oh, for the days when fast-improving three-year-olds made the Ebor something akin to shelling peas for punters.

The modern version has lost something valuable ā€“ as evidenced by the fact that an 86-rated beast crept in last year ā€“ but finding a couple who are ahead of their mark remains vital.

One of them could be last yearā€™s unlucky fifth Hipop De Loire but 7-2 is no bargain, while second favourite French Master can win without my money from a mark of 108.

But LONDON CITY and ETHICAL DIAMOND appeal as likely sorts at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively.

Aidan wasnā€™t chuffed when the Classic generation were on the wrong end of an Ebor expulsion tool in 2019 and his sole success in the race came when Mediterranean thwarted gambled-on fellow three-year-old Foreign Affairs in 2001.

But London City is less exposed than many a three-year-old ā€“ with just seven runs including an impressive York success last spring ā€“ and the way he shaped under considerate handling in the G2 Curragh Cup last month was very encouraging.

It's fair to say there was plenty oā€™buzz around this hulking grey when the hardworking Sportinglife team visited Ballydoyle recently and the same could be said about Ethical Diamond during a similar jolly/serious journalistic assignment to Closutton.

ā€œWhat we see on the gallops is way better than what weā€™ve got on the racecourseā€ was the key message as Willie Mullins assessed this ladā€™s Ebor prospects.

But we saw plenty from Ethical Diamond when he forged clear of several rivals who have run very well since in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot.

An 8lb hike has followed but this Diamond is shining brighter now heā€™s finally learned to relax and, granted some cover and a true pace, the demands of the Ebor should suit him very well indeed.
 
luckyme said:
Aidan O'Brien believes š—Ÿš—¢š—”š——š—¢š—” š—–š—œš—§š—¬ is on a "lovely mark" heading into the @SkyBet Ebor at @yorkracecourse This race has been the plan for the son of Justify since he won at the 2024 Dante meeting

Oh, for the days when fast-improving three-year-olds made the Ebor something akin to shelling peas for punters.

The modern version has lost something valuable ā€“ as evidenced by the fact that an 86-rated beast crept in last year ā€“ but finding a couple who are ahead of their mark remains vital.

One of them could be last yearā€™s unlucky fifth Hipop De Loire but 7-2 is no bargain, while second favourite French Master can win without my money from a mark of 108.

But LONDON CITY and ETHICAL DIAMOND appeal as likely sorts at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively.

Aidan wasnā€™t chuffed when the Classic generation were on the wrong end of an Ebor expulsion tool in 2019 and his sole success in the race came when Mediterranean thwarted gambled-on fellow three-year-old Foreign Affairs in 2001.

But London City is less exposed than many a three-year-old ā€“ with just seven runs including an impressive York success last spring ā€“ and the way he shaped under considerate handling in the G2 Curragh Cup last month was very encouraging.

It's fair to say there was plenty oā€™buzz around this hulking grey when the hardworking Sportinglife team visited Ballydoyle recently and the same could be said about Ethical Diamond during a similar jolly/serious journalistic assignment to Closutton.

ā€œWhat we see on the gallops is way better than what weā€™ve got on the racecourseā€ was the key message as Willie Mullins assessed this ladā€™s Ebor prospects.

But we saw plenty from Ethical Diamond when he forged clear of several rivals who have run very well since in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot.

An 8lb hike has followed but this Diamond is shining brighter now heā€™s finally learned to relax and, granted some cover and a true pace, the demands of the Ebor should suit him very well indeed.
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I see that this piece is taken from Graham Cunningham's column in the Sporting Life. There's nothing wrong with sharing interesting content, but I think the author deserves a mention.
 
Grey said:
I see that this piece is taken from Graham Cunningham's column in the Sporting Life. There's nothing wrong with sharing interesting content, but I think the author deserves a mention.
Click to expand...
Plus I think there's an Ebor thread somewhere - I was planning to resurrect it today once the five-day confirmations are made.
 
luckyme said:
Aidan O'Brien believes š—Ÿš—¢š—”š——š—¢š—” š—–š—œš—§š—¬ is on a "lovely mark" heading into the @SkyBet Ebor at @yorkracecourse This race has been the plan for the son of Justify since he won at the 2024 Dante meeting

Oh, for the days when fast-improving three-year-olds made the Ebor something akin to shelling peas for punters.

The modern version has lost something valuable ā€“ as evidenced by the fact that an 86-rated beast crept in last year ā€“ but finding a couple who are ahead of their mark remains vital.

One of them could be last yearā€™s unlucky fifth Hipop De Loire but 7-2 is no bargain, while second favourite French Master can win without my money from a mark of 108.

But LONDON CITY and ETHICAL DIAMOND appeal as likely sorts at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively.

Aidan wasnā€™t chuffed when the Classic generation were on the wrong end of an Ebor expulsion tool in 2019 and his sole success in the race came when Mediterranean thwarted gambled-on fellow three-year-old Foreign Affairs in 2001.

But London City is less exposed than many a three-year-old ā€“ with just seven runs including an impressive York success last spring ā€“ and the way he shaped under considerate handling in the G2 Curragh Cup last month was very encouraging.

It's fair to say there was plenty oā€™buzz around this hulking grey when the hardworking Sportinglife team visited Ballydoyle recently and the same could be said about Ethical Diamond during a similar jolly/serious journalistic assignment to Closutton.

ā€œWhat we see on the gallops is way better than what weā€™ve got on the racecourseā€ was the key message as Willie Mullins assessed this ladā€™s Ebor prospects.

But we saw plenty from Ethical Diamond when he forged clear of several rivals who have run very well since in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot.

An 8lb hike has followed but this Diamond is shining brighter now heā€™s finally learned to relax and, granted some cover and a true pace, the demands of the Ebor should suit him very well indeed.
Click to expand...
I have serious reservations about London City. The idea itā€™s some sort of dark plot seems deeply unlikely.
 
1.50 York ( Wed ) Tees Spirit maybe worth a small EW interest at 66/1 5 Places with Hill's or 40/1 7 Places with Sky - hit and miss these days ( more miss ) but is fairly weighted and this being the second run back since a wind op - having been off the track for nine weeks , should strip fitter here.
 
LADY ROXBY 4:45 20/1
Beaten a neck by the favourite for this race Luna A Inbhir Nis on the knavesmire last time out gets a pound pull but would have probably won with a clear run (finished strongly)
Only downside Tom Eaves takes the ride.

Oh and in the first race Air Force One for a certain Mr G Oldroyd took the 10/1 available on Sunday.
Geoff also runs his unbeaten gelding Big Leader on Friday so with two runners in three days the poor guy will be rushed off his feet.
 
Might And Power said:
1.50 York ( Wed ) Tees Spirit maybe worth a small EW interest at 66/1 5 Places with Hill's or 40/1 7 Places with Sky - hit and miss these days ( more miss ) but is fairly weighted and this being the second run back since a wind op - having been off the track for nine weeks , should strip fitter here.
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I think you may be on to something there. 66/1 gone, for now at least.

The one I have quite a strong fancy for is Vantheman (possibly in a driving finish?). Kevinā€™s, Ryan and Stott a good combination here. Has pretty good form at York, especially when 2nd here last May behind Jubilee Walk when on wrong side of the draw. Stall six looks good and first time headgear (cheekpieces). He has a propensity to blow the start, but if he overcomes that, he should be a contender.
 
The first race is absolutely horrible and the 5f110yds trip makes it even worse.

Low draws are fashionable among the self-appointed social media cognoscenti at the moment, but then so were flared trousers once.

I suppose I ought to give the combination tricast if only to keep the haters quiet for a minute or two: Squealer, Roman Dragon, Air Force One.
 
Barnestormer said:
LADY ROXBY 4:45 20/1
Beaten a neck by the favourite for this race Luna A Inbhir Nis on the knavesmire last time out gets a pound pull but would have probably won with a clear run (finished strongly)
Only downside Tom Eaves takes the ride.

Oh and in the first race Air Force One for a certain Mr G Oldroyd took the 10/1 available on Sunday.
Geoff also runs his unbeaten gelding Big Leader on Friday so with two runners in three days the poor guy will be rushed off his feet.
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Pocklington is entered for the valuable six furlong sprint handicap, the 4:10 at York, on Saturday. He's one of the few Geoff Oldroyd horses not to have won recently.
 
Saratoga Special was 50/1 when she won at Ayr, and tbh she didn't do a lot at Sandown Park last time out.

Maybe it was the understandable excitement of being the closest she's ever been to Maurice that galvanised her up in Scotland but, if she could recapture that career-best form, I don't think a mark of 95 would be impossible in the 4.45.

And Temple Of Athena ran alright at Glorious Goodwood, the fourth and fifth have run ok since, and I think the winner's having a crack at the Nunthorpe on Friday.

Temple Of Athena runs off 79 in the 5.20, is bred to appreciate the sixth furlong and looks a bit of potential value at double-digit odds.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Saratoga Special was 50/1 when she won at Ayr, and tbh she didn't do a lot at Sandown Park last time out.

Maybe it was the understandable excitement of being the closest she's ever been to Maurice that galvanised her up in Scotland but, if she could recapture that career-best form, I don't think a mark of 95 would be impossible in the 4.45.

And Temple Of Athena ran alright at Glorious Goodwood, the fourth and fifth have run ok since, and I think the winner's having a crack at the Nunthorpe on Friday.

Temple Of Athena runs off 79 in the 5.20, is bred to appreciate the sixth furlong and looks a bit of potential value at double-digit odds.
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You certainly picked out the two hardest looking races of the day there. That 4.45 has almost no end of improvers who could be anything and I had difficulty whittling a shortlist down to 5. Saratoga Special was the first I looked at, and I agree 50/1 is very attractive and worth a bet at that price. It is showing as best price 18/1 on Oddschecker now, but the history on there shows it was never 50/1 (though I also saw that price shown on the Racing Post earlier). Iā€™ve ended up with another Irish runner, who could be overpriced - Eclairage 18/1. Iā€™m not sure her turf rating of 88 reflects her ability and she is rated 96 on the AW mainly on the basis of a very good run behind Valiant Force at Dundalk (albeit in receipt of tons of weight). If she can reproduce that, she could be involved. Stall 18 is a concern, but who knows where the bias will be on Wednesday. Novamay interesting as well.

In the 5.20 Blue Orbit could run well. I think he will be glad to get back on firmer ground and his run at Goodwood was very good, considering he had a less than clear run and pulled hard early on. He has pulled hard in every run, but could be decent when he learns to settle. Perhaps he might try to lead from stall one. He won his maiden by making all. I like this Newland/Insole combination and Jamie Insole was quite bullish about Blue Orbit before his Goodwood run.
 
Barnestormer said:
LADY ROXBY 4:45 20/1
Beaten a neck by the favourite for this race Luna A Inbhir Nis on the knavesmire last time out gets a pound pull but would have probably won with a clear run (finished strongly)
Only downside Tom Eaves takes the ride.

Oh and in the first race Air Force One for a certain Mr G Oldroyd took the 10/1 available on Sunday.
Geoff also runs his unbeaten gelding Big Leader on Friday so with two runners in three days the poor guy will be rushed off his feet.
Click to expand...
I used to have a girlfriend, (gosh that was a long time ago), and her nickname was Roxy, so that must be an omen to follow you here.

I also fancy a horse Ian has mentioned, that being Squealer. It looks a good day for an each bet tomorrow. I'm looking forward to it.
 
Taking into account there is usually a low draw bias at least for the first day I think The man looks a solid enough favourite in the first, stayed on well over the 5f when winning here suggesting the extra half furlong wont be a problem. Up 8lb but only had 4 runs so obviously open to plenty of improvement and things couldnt be going better for Richard Spencer at the moment. Can't see any reason why this one wont go close and 7/1 is fair enough.

In the fillies and mares sprint Mademoiselle could be given another chance. Split Ruby's profit and Nannas sparkle on her first run of the season finishing strongly. Will be a couple of pounds better off with Ruby's profit who had match fitness on her side that day and this being a stiffer 5f should help. Madame disappointed in the 3yo sprint at Epsom but lost a shoe Ruby's finished 3rd there and Nannas sparkle has won since so the form of that original race looks solid enough and if losing a shoe is a reasonable excuse for the poor performance that day then 18/1 looks worth a shot. Drawn 9 i couldnt really fancy any of the lower drawn runners here but 9 is low enough to be involved on that side if it is favoured. She also since switched stables to Kevin Foy whos had his string in fine fettle lately.

I've had a few quid on the e/w double for a bit of interest prices boosted to 15/2 and 20/1.

As for the main event I wont bet the opinion as im a bit worried by the French horse but id expect Delacroix to take down Ombudsman with relative ease. Also have no idea about the Japanese horse as I dont follow the Japanese form like I once did in the days of Gold Ship and Harp Star but if they send one half way around the world you should always show it a bit of respect. Should be a great race and just looking forward to watching it and hoping that Delacroix as I think he will emerges as a star in the latter half of this season.

Good luck.
 
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Danny said:
Taking into account there is usually a low draw bias at least for the first day I think The man looks a solid enough favourite stayed on well over the 5f when winning here suggesting the extra half furlong wont be a problem. Up 8lb but only had 4 runs so obviously open to plenty of improvement and things couldnt be going better for Richard Spencer at the moment. Can't see any reason why this one wont go close and boosted odds to 7/1 is fair enough.

In the 3yo sprint Mademoiselle could be given another chance. Split Ruby's profit and Nannas sparkle on her first run of the season finishing strongly. Will be a couple of pounds better off with Ruby's profit who had match fitness on her side that day and this being a stiffer 5f should help. Madame disappointed in the 3yo sprint at Epsom but lost a shoe Ruby's finished 3rd there and Nannas sparkle has won since so the form of that original race looks solid enough and if losing a shoe is a reasonable excuse for the poor performance that day then 20/1 looks worth a shot. Drawn 9 i couldnt really fancy any of the lower drawn runners here but 9 is low enough to be involved on that side if it is favoured. She also since switched stables to Kevin Foy whos had his string in fine fettle lately.

I've had a few quid on the e/w double for a bit of interest.

As for the main event I wont bet the opinion as im a bit worried by the French horse but id expect Delacroix to take down Ombudsman with relative ease. Also have non idea about the Japanese horse as I dont follow the Japanese form like I once did in the days of Gold Ship and Harp Star but if they send one half way around the world you sould always show it a bit of respect. Should be a great race and just looking forward to watching it and hoping that Delacroix as I think he will emerges as a star in the latter half of this season.

Good luck.
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Cracking read, enjoyed that, many thanks, Danny.

Differing opinions are what these threads are for and it's great to be reading plenty of sometimes contrasting views.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Cracking read, enjoyed that, many thanks, Danny.

Differing opinions are what these threads are for and it's great to be reading plenty of sometimes contrasting views.
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Tbh I used to do a lot more in depth write up's years back on another forum I was on. There were some really knowledgeable guys on there who did the same. When I first joined on there I was a bit of the forum clown amongst these guy's but I learned so much from them and there write ups that I started doing alright myself. They were top punters who shared knowledge and expected nothing in return just genuinely a good bunch of guys. In real life I'd never met people like that everyone always wanted something. I loved that ethos and my life is certainly in a much better place because of them and I'd never forget what they did for me. I'd also try carry it on myself helping people where I can.

As for the horses these days despite me keep telling myself that i'll get back into things properly i never have done, the drive isn't there anymore so selections are usually no more than loose educated guesses. That said I've never really understood people who post on a forum and just put up a name of a selection without any form of reasoning, I know plenty on here do and each to their own. If you're like Slim who in all honesty from what I've seen of him from down the years operates on a different level to most people here and could probably be doing a paid subscription sort of thing considering his results then the fact he sticks his tips up here for nothing is probably enough.

As for us mere mortals the idea surely of a forum is to put up ideas let other people read and discuss and that's how we learn and move forward. I've put up plenty of things in the past and people have pointed out errors I've made or just pointed out point blank that I'm talking shit. I took it on board a learned as I went, improved from it and got better as a punter. Believe it or not I even actually learned one of my most important lessons from Tanlic of all people through all the shit he spouted at me over the years I sifted out one golden nugget. Putting up just the name of a horse and odds of a horse you've backed seems a fairly pointless process to me. Unless you were keeping track of the profit and loss i suppose to show people your selections were worthwhile and winning in the long run. There is a down side to putting up your thoughts as I've done it before pointing out some people have just got it plain wrong in a bid to straighten them out and put them on the right path some people have been receptive and taken things on board, some offer a counter opinion as to why I'm wrong sometimes I've accepted that and sometimes we've agreed to disagree. There are those who take any criticism of a selection personal and throw their toys out the pram.

As said each to their own, I'm not much use myself these days so perhaps I should concentrate on getting my own house in order and putting up some better more educated content myself. Hopefully the NH season and the AW programme will rekindle something.
 

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