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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

Just looked at the final declarations now.
Top rated 138; only 5 rated >131, 3 of which are aged 9, 10, 11.
Where are all the good horses gone ? Hong Kong ?
It is depressing to see things sink to this low; there was a time you needed a 135 plus rating to run in a premier handicap hurdle like this.
 
For the prize money on offer you would think the better horses would be going for it.
It is disappointing to see it happening.

Let it rain.
 
edgt said:
Just looked at the final declarations now.
Top rated 138; only 5 rated >131, 3 of which are aged 9, 10, 11.
Where are all the good horses gone ? Hong Kong ?
It is depressing to see things sink to this low; there was a time you needed a 135 plus rating to run in a premier handicap hurdle like this.
Click to expand...
Yes, it's partly the modern Hong Kong (much better prize money) effect - it's often said that if Sea Pigeon had been born into the modern era, he'd never have jumped a hurdle and would have been sold to Hong Kong as a 3yo rising four.

But I don't just think it's that - there are too many easy Pattern Jumps race opportunities nowadays which dilute quality in big handicaps.

However, I am looking forward to tomorrow's race nonetheless.
 
This is my table for the race, compiled originally on Wednesday and edited on Thursday after the final decs came out with my own ratings in the bold red column. The Best Odds [BO] columns are as they were then but have since changed a bit. I've copied and pasted my synopsis underneath with further thoughts this morning below that.

1770451717604.png

Strictly speaking, Let It Rain has plenty to do to win this but seeing where stablemate Faivoir, handicapped to win an average renewal on its form this season never mind its older form, sits in the table there has to be a very strong chance that they’ve been preserving a good mark for the mare. She could be another Joyeuse who won this off 123 and two runs later was competing off 142 in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle, probably the equivalent of 146/147 over here. Certainly based on her NHF form she could be in that bracket. Quite a few of those around her in the handicap were 20lbs inferior in that discipline.

My only bet so far is Poet Laureate at 50/1 partly because it is a first-season novice and partly because the yard has an excellent record in the race from only a few runners. The trainer is no mug at the best of times and has proved he is a dab hand at targeting this race.

I will use Let It Rain to cover any other bets in the race, possibly all my bets for the day, otherwise Tutti Quanti will be the main one.

Tutti Quanti won the Gerry Fielden last time and has presumably been held back to preserve its mark as well. That day it set a fast pace and anything that tried to go with it was burned off by two out. The ones that got closest came from the back but it pretty much ran away from them again after the last despite making a hash of two out (it otherwise jumped very fluently). It could be 10lbs better than its rating.

I’ll probably have a pop at the other first-season novices at fancy odds as well. I’ve highlighted in blue the ones that have been cut a fair bit since yesterday and Poet Laureate is the only one to have drifted notably although it’s only with one firm. I can’t go in again ‘cos that firm won’t let me bet with them but if anybody else puts up 66s I’ll probably go in again.

Today's comments:

With Let It Rain now around 2/1 and Tutti Quanti around 9/2 I'm not of a mind to back both. I did go in again on Poet Laureate yesterday at 66/1 in the local shop (where I'm not a regular) but only to four places. I'm tempted to go in again this morning now that a few firms are going the price, the five places and the BOG.

Faivoir and Wellington Arch are nice enough prices to want to be involved at the best terms as well but I do expect one of the 'big two' to win but even the reverse forecast is probably not worth it.

Milldam was on my radar at the 50s the other day when Luckyme put it up but 14/1 is barge pole stuff given the potential among the opposition.

If I can get a wee profit from the each-way pops I'll take it. A wee profit from dutching the big two would be nothing to boast about.
 
It's NOT "the Schweppes, its NOT "the Tote Gold Trophy," it's NOT "the Betfair Hurdle" and no, it's doesn't attract top weights of Champion Hurdle calibre any more, as they're all off, mopping up easy prize money in nob-end Pattern races.

But if we could all see our way clear to getting our heads out of our arses of the past it's still an interesting handicap hurdle, so cheer the actual F up (no wonder Generation Z largely despise the miserable old "boomers" my generation has devolved into, banging on about a World War we weren't even alive during and so much other rose-tinted specs bollocks besides).

Cracking race, absolutely can't wait.

#willnoonespareathoughtforthechildren?
 
Also surprised by Hot Fuss withdrawal. This was on my shortlist but I’ve now backed Tutti Quanti who could have plenty in hand (even off top weight) as DO has mentioned above and Lanesborough who looks as if he’ll be well suited by this drop back in trip and softer ground
 
Slim said:
I'm surprised the Greatrex yoke is freely available at 15/2 for the Schwepps.
Click to expand...
It's got a NAME (All In You) and it's not "the Schweppes," (which you weren't born when it was hence can't even SPELL).

If ever a posting was specifically designed to give me a fit of apoplectic rage ("fuming" doesn't even come close) leading to a CORONARY, this is it.

This posting is tantamount to attempted MURDER!
 
Slim said:
I'm surprised the Greatrex yoke is freely available at 15/2 for the Schwepps.
Click to expand...

It is quite a drift considering how strong it seemed at the start of the week. Didn't it hit 11/4 at one point?

I watched its races at that point. If I'd backed it in those races I'd have thought I was on a non-trier but it put in good finishes first to end up on the wrong end of the photo finish and then to win well. If recent years are anything to go by he'd probably have made the cut off his old mark but maybe they felt they didn't want to risk it not happening.

On top of that, his Flat rating suggests he is potentially some way better still than his current mark.

I certainly wouldn't put anyone off it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It is quite a drift considering how strong it seemed at the start of the week. Didn't it hit 11/4 at one point?

I watched its races at that point. If I'd backed it in those races I'd have thought I was on a non-trier but it put in good finishes first to end up on the wrong end of the photo finish and then to win well. If recent years are anything to go by he'd probably have made the cut off his old mark but maybe they felt they didn't want to risk it not happening.

On top of that, his Flat rating suggests he is potentially some way better still than his current mark.

I certainly wouldn't put anyone off it.
Click to expand...

Day of the race is the only market counts. It's currently 9.8 into 8.0.
 
Actually nice to see the Nicholls horses running so well atm. And clearly that was a big tonic for them. Especially after losing Kalif du Berlais.

Would you supplement him for the CH now? In an open year with a rapidly improving horse, it's not the daftest idea?
 
Desert Orchid said:
This is my table for the race, compiled originally on Wednesday and edited on Thursday after the final decs came out with my own ratings in the bold red column. The Best Odds [BO] columns are as they were then but have since changed a bit. I've copied and pasted my synopsis underneath with further thoughts this morning below that.

View attachment 24855

Strictly speaking, Let It Rain has plenty to do to win this but seeing where stablemate Faivoir, handicapped to win an average renewal on its form this season never mind its older form, sits in the table there has to be a very strong chance that they’ve been preserving a good mark for the mare. She could be another Joyeuse who won this off 123 and two runs later was competing off 142 in a Fairyhouse handicap hurdle, probably the equivalent of 146/147 over here. Certainly based on her NHF form she could be in that bracket. Quite a few of those around her in the handicap were 20lbs inferior in that discipline.

My only bet so far is Poet Laureate at 50/1 partly because it is a first-season novice and partly because the yard has an excellent record in the race from only a few runners. The trainer is no mug at the best of times and has proved he is a dab hand at targeting this race.

I will use Let It Rain to cover any other bets in the race, possibly all my bets for the day, otherwise Tutti Quanti will be the main one.

Tutti Quanti won the Gerry Fielden last time and has presumably been held back to preserve its mark as well. That day it set a fast pace and anything that tried to go with it was burned off by two out. The ones that got closest came from the back but it pretty much ran away from them again after the last despite making a hash of two out (it otherwise jumped very fluently). It could be 10lbs better than its rating.

I’ll probably have a pop at the other first-season novices at fancy odds as well. I’ve highlighted in blue the ones that have been cut a fair bit since yesterday and Poet Laureate is the only one to have drifted notably although it’s only with one firm. I can’t go in again ‘cos that firm won’t let me bet with them but if anybody else puts up 66s I’ll probably go in again.

Today's comments:

With Let It Rain now around 2/1 and Tutti Quanti around 9/2 I'm not of a mind to back both. I did go in again on Poet Laureate yesterday at 66/1 in the local shop (where I'm not a regular) but only to four places. I'm tempted to go in again this morning now that a few firms are going the price, the five places and the BOG.

Faivoir and Wellington Arch are nice enough prices to want to be involved at the best terms as well but I do expect one of the 'big two' to win but even the reverse forecast is probably not worth it.

Milldam was on my radar at the 50s the other day when Luckyme put it up but 14/1 is barge pole stuff given the potential among the opposition.

If I can get a wee profit from the each-way pops I'll take it. A wee profit from dutching the big two would be nothing to boast about.
Click to expand...
Well done DO.:cheers::drink:
 
I’d be very careful about getting carried away with that form. He went forward on desperate ground in a race where horses couldn’t get to the main group, never mind the winner. I can’t ever remember a season where all the form before the Festival was on bottomless ground.
 
Agree completely Slim as I said earlier in thread when conditions get that bad it comes down to whatever goes through it, what doesn't pulls up. Tutti fruity went through like he was wearing flippers.

Well done anyone who won.

And just to say I thought lucky mes pick was outstanding despite the result. I ended up amazed it didnt run a big race but i thought the pick was absolute top thinking. It just didnt work out today for whatever reason.
 
Totally agree re the ground making him look head and shoulders above the rest. And horses can look better simply because they go through the ground whereas so many don't.

BUT Nicholls was really confident and to run him off top weight does indicate what a high opinion he has of him. I have just read his profile in the Nicholls Horses in Training booklet they gave us during the visit and he does like him a lot. That said he sees (or saw) him as a 2m Novice Chaser. I suspect after an easy campaign, he's matured significantly and this then became the plan. He's a decent sized horse so the weight was easier for him to carry than most.
 
He was clocking 14s furlongs in that ground before Cobden got him a breather from halfway until the straight then he just picked up again.

I'm happy to rate the form very highly, higher even than I imagined it might be, so much so that I have taken 25/1 NRNB for the Champion Hurdle.

His hurdling is exceptionally slick and he has slaughtered some very well handicapped first- and second-season novices.
 

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