The Arc 2019 discussion thread

M

Marb

Journeyman
Joined
Mar 8, 2016
Messages
7,577
Enable is a mare of the highest calibre; according to Oisin Murphy the best since Frankel.

I've no problem with her winning, winning it again next year, the year after; even being the greatest horse of all time for that matter.

But...err... Waldgiest at 16/1, really?

This has strong each way claims.

He gave Enable three pounds at Ascot, was only beaten under two lengths, staying on well in third place.

Enable, Crystal Ocean and Waldgiest pulled miles clear of the fourth.

I reckon Waldgiest has a solid profile. While it's not essential, if rain arrived it would help him more.

He's best after an absence, (gaps of a few months, as opposed to years off the track), so if they rest him until early October, I can't see why he can't finish in the first three.

Enable is a great thing, but Waldgiest looks a class each way bet.
 
Last edited:
Is Crystal Ocean a good thing in the Juddmonte then?

There's three quality horses in opposition, King Of Comedy, Elarqam and Circus Maximus, none of whom are currently likely to run in the Arc.

Maybe Crystal Ocean did actually have a very hard race the last day?

If he gets beat everything else will shorten up a bit including Waldgeist - So the time to commit on Waldgeist may be near.

If Crystal Ocean wins as expected Waldgeist's price probably won't change. It's a win-win. Time to back him now.
 
Last edited:
simmo said:
I'm not sure I follow your logic here. If crystal ocean wins, waldgeist stays the same price but if he loses he shortens?
Click to expand...
With Crystal Ocean's three main rivals on Wednesday not Arc horses...this definately supports my overall argument. Crystal Ocean either holds his position in the betting market by winning or gets beat in which case he has no chance in the Arc and the others are bigger dangers to Enable.
 
Last edited:
By 'all those', do you mean Enable and Waldgeist?

Thats a fair point actually. I hadn't considered that angle.

For purely selfish reasons I'd rather Crystal Ocean got beat and that would be one less serious contender to worry about for mine.
 
Last edited:
Of the big three I prefer Waldgeist as at least he's been given a break after the KG.CO and Enable running at Ascot and York is a negative imo. The latter obviously overcame this two years ago but she had the excessive allowances then (age excessive not sex)

Siyarafina might be interesting at 33s. 3yo filly, shithouse ride in the Diane. Likely takes in the Vermeille.

Magical isn't a terrible price but might lengthen after the Yorskshire Oaks. Remember Found used that race as a tune up the year she won
 
Waldgeist now 20 on the machine -the idea that he is going to shorten all the way to the day of the race is flawed.
 
Ballydoyle have high hopes for Japan methinks.
They will try ensure Enable gets roughed up in Yorkshire Oaks if possible and could well field every available 12 furlong horse to get one up on her, her scalp would make any stallion page.
 
LUKE said:
Waldgeist now 20 on the machine -the idea that he is going to shorten all the way to the day of the race is flawed.
Click to expand...

Into 14's today with five firms, there's only a couple left going 16's.
 
Last edited:
tiggers1972 said:
Enabke is a steering job again surely.
Click to expand...

Not for me. I like my Arc runners to have a mid season break. Optimal is a 3yo who has such a gap and has the wfa (only because the scale is too generous for 3yos this time of year over 12f). So, she overcame not having a break in 2017 because she was already top class and had all the allowances. Last year she only just won but was relatively fresh. This year she's taken in the KG (always a neg for older horses) and went to York. It's a shame Waldgeist ran at Ascot but at least he's been kept quiet since then.
 
Euronymous said:
Not for me. I like my Arc runners to have a mid season break. Optimal is a 3yo who has such a gap and has the wfa (only because the scale is too generous for 3yos this time of year over 12f). So, she overcame not having a break in 2017 because she was already top class and had all the allowances. Last year she only just won but was relatively fresh. This year she's taken in the KG (always a neg for older horses) and went to York. It's a shame Waldgeist ran at Ascot but at least he's been kept quiet since then.
Click to expand...

sottsass?
 
Ghaiyyath, impressive winner of Baden Baden group one today was bred by Dermot Weld, the dam a 1000 Gns for him after winning a Cork maiden in his mother's colours.
He was at Cork today watching the race with great interest in the Paddy Power shop.
it so happens his greatest remaining ambition is to win the Arc, possibly only matched by the Champion Hurdle.
Wouldn't it be something if he bred the winner rather than trained it ?
He was awarded a Veterinary Sporting Hall Of Fame award this summer from UCD Vet college so I congratulated him on both.
Speaking to him after the race he was generous enough to answer any question I had for him
I asked him the question that has bothered me for 10 years; what went through his head when Dunguib came upsides his Rite Of Passage in the Cheltenham Bumper.
" I could not believe my eyes " was his reply " Mind you , the winner must have had more powering him than mine had, but none the less I thought no horse could do that to mine !"
 
Last edited:
Yeah really looking forward to the race this year. Whats your take on Enable, Luke?
 
I would like to lay her at 11/10 for my absolute max before Irish Champions Weekend.There is a chance she won’t make it-I think Ballydoyle will explode into life next week,the Godolphin horse is interesting and Waldgiest has a chance along with the French Derby winner.
 
Amazing really, we've all gone from 5 weeks ago saying she's going to be hard to beat and CO is the only danger to having a potentially great race on our hands.

Not that I should question him but I think Stoute mad a bit of a mistake running CO in the Juddmonte, that again would have taken a lot out of him. Japan really impressed me as well, without that setback he wins the Derby, and he will come on for the step up in trip again. Ghaiyyath was impressive yesterday but not really beat anything. This Sottsass could be good as well.... Really excited!

But I have to say, if you gave me a tenner now, like Marb, i'd be backing Waldgeist each way! He ran really well in the KG and this is a horse that HATES travelling out of France, never produces normally!
But the key thing is going to be the draw - she gets a good draw, and she is the first 3 time winner and the first 5yo winner!
 
Back
Top