The Arc 2019 discussion thread

If you believe what you read it is, from what O'Dowd said in the paper at the weekend, she's in unbelievable form and they are more confident that last year.

Last year I think Waldgeist went off about 11/2 on the PMU but I reckon the French money will come for Sotsass and then 'the boys' will come for Japan. Can't see her going off shorter that 8/13.
 
Just had another look at the card!
There is only really 5 horses that could put it up to her if they put in they're best and she gives her worst. Waldgeist, Magical, Japan, AVD and Sottsass. AOB will use AVD as his pacemaker surely, so he's out. I know they love Sottsass but he found trouble in a 5 runner race where he was in a group of 4 so not for me.... Waldgeist realistically will be playing for places so as we know it, Japan and Magical are the only ones. I dont think Magical will run but sky are offering NRNB at 10/1 which is a BIG price!
 
Obviously I want Enable to create history but it’s a shame it’s a small field. If she wins, there will always be people saying she beat a sub standard field. I suppose there is less of a risk of traffic problems.
 
Lay Enable is the only value I can see. No horse won the Arc three times and only two 5yo+ in the last 69 years.
Sottsass, Japan and Ghaiyyath are three (well weighted) 3yo able to beat her, so I think her odds are relatively low.
 
SeaTheMoon said:
Lay Enable is the only value I can see. No horse won the Arc three times and only two 5yo+ in the last 69 years.
Sottsass, Japan and Ghaiyyath are three (well weighted) 3yo able to beat her, so I think her odds are relatively low.
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Ghaiyyath won’t get an allowance as he’s a 4yo. That said, I still think he’s the best e/w alternative to the fav. Especially if we get 4 places on the day.
 
Enable would be a hell of a story but unfortunately for her Sottsass will win and for two reasons:

1) Been following Rouget's career for more than 35 years and the way he has prepared this horse is like no other in his illustrious career.
The comments in the Racing Post are basically telling everybody that this is the best horse he has ever trained and that includes the mighty Almanzor. You just have to read the fine print.

2) Sottsass beat what I thought was the best European 3yo (Persian King) by a good way in the French Derby. I was a bit stunned with the ease in which he did it.
I think this horse is at least 8-10 lbs. better than Sea of Class last year. Enable will have to be at her most mighty best and for me an exceptional 3yo colt will beat any mare even one as xtra ordinary as Enable.
Demuro is the perfect partner, nothing not to like.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough but I've tee'd this one up.

Either way it promises to be quite a spectacle. Can't see beyond these two.
 
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Good question.

It is very soft now, but it could even be heavy by off time.

Waldgeist is by the German sire Monsun who from memory produces horses that can win on soft or heavy.

There's a possibility he will relish a proper Group 1 gallop on this sort of ground.

He should certainly see his race through-the-line based on his previous staying-on efforts.

Whatever happens, I fancy Waldgeist will put in a career best here.

The betting market tells us not to doubt Enable.

Enjoy the race.
 
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Are you backing Pink Dogwood tomorrow James -10 furlongs tomorrow and was nicely looked after when last seen.
 
Amongst the 6 principals, the only horse proven on proper heavy ground is Japan (imo). Probably has the stamina to withstand a slog, too.
Enable won her first Arc on officially sft, but the 'french' version, which was nothing like as deep.
 
If she does not win it will be because she is not right - if she is at her best she will go clear 2 out and nothing will be able to run her down.

I have no concerns about the ground - soggy as hell for her first King George.
 
Ground did not play to her strengths. Huge shame. I just wish they didn’t hype things up so much. Makes it all the harder when she gets beaten.
 
Undone by the ground three times too good for Waldgeist and only a bog did for her after she had been softened up . I suspect Dettori will wish he had hung on to her a bit longer but I suspect it made no difference.
 
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