The Arc 2021

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
24,294
With Snowfall laying down a huge marker for the season in the Oaks, this might be a good time to get a thread up and running for the Arc.

She's 6s tops now for Paris as far as I can see.

One longshot I backed early for the Derby but which was taken out was Derab at 50/1. I also backed him for the Arc (50/1) just in case.

The brother phoned me this morning to tell me he'd read that Derab has been supplemented for the Prix du Jockey Club. That has to be a big positive.

We'll see what the Derby throws up tomorrow.
 
I see SMB has won the French Derby. Will he stay?

Headline dosage figures suggest it's possible:

[FONT=&quot]DP = 1-5-16-6-0 (28) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.04


[/FONT]
 
Just watched today's replay.

Very encouraged by Derab's run. He got messed about quite a lot and forced fairly wide round the turns, made sharp headway when pulled out but then ran very green. I reckon the experience will not be lost on him.

I can see me going in again at 66/1.
 
A filly that can run to 120 getting allowances is almost unbeatable in an Arc.
 
Slim said:
A filly that can run to 120 getting allowances is almost unbeatable in an Arc.
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Nah, 120 is bang average for the level of the Arc. A right good Arc winner will be at least 126. The allowance wouldn't account for the difference.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nah, 120 is bang average for the level of the Arc. A right good Arc winner will be at least 126. The allowance wouldn't account for the difference.
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Why would she need to be "right good". Doesn't feel like a vintage year and she's open to improvement like the others.
 
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Slim said:
Why would she need to be "right good". Doesn't feel like a vintage year and she's open to improvement like the others.
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I know where you're coming from but I think it's too early in the season to be assuming the Arc will be as poor as the races so far.

The Coronation Cup form might be better than we think.

SMB might be a better horse again by October.

The French trainers know how to campaign theirs for the Arc.

Japan might have a contender or two.

I haven't lost faith in High Definition.

If BB had a definite excuse he might stage a strong revival.

Mishriff might keep impoving.

So might Adayar.

So might Snowfall, granted. I can't see a 120 [filly] performance winning an Arc but if she goes on to show herself to be a 125 horse she will have a shout.

It's all a wee bit early, I reckon, to be enthusing about a 120 filly at 5/1.
 
Adayar and Snowfall would need to supplemented for E120,000. For me this adds a couple of points to the price i'd want because it lessens chances of the scenario where either of them disappoint a bit in their next couple of runs before bouncing back under more suitable conditions at Longchamp.
 
ep1987 said:
Adayar and Snowfall would need to supplemented for E120,000. For me this adds a couple of points to the price i'd want because it lessens chances of the scenario where either of them disappoint a bit in their next couple of runs before bouncing back under more suitable conditions at Longchamp.
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Very insightful post. Hadn't noticed they weren't entered.
 
German Derby winner Sisfahan may not be up to this but interesting that he is from the Mill Reef sire line , his sire a German Derby winner that never won after but no sign of Galileo, Sadlers Wells , Shamardal or Dubawi in the pedigree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One longshot I backed early for the Derby but which was taken out was Derab at 50/1. I also backed him for the Arc (50/1) just in case.

The brother phoned me this morning to tell me he'd read that Derab has been supplemented for the Prix du Jockey Club. That has to be a big positive.

We'll see what the Derby throws up tomorrow.
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A big negative that he was entered over a mile today DO (pulled out on account of the ground) and his only other entry is the Sussex stakes...
 
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Yes, and when I saw Dettori couldn't be arsed to hang around for the ride I more or less accepted my fate.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, and when I saw Dettori couldn't be arsed to hang around for the ride I more or less accepted my fate.
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Frankie living off coolmore scraps at the moment. Unless gosden has some decent 2yos I can see him retiring in a couple of years. He’s hardly riding outside the group races. Mind you he said he isn’t interested in training so maybe a future in tv might beckon. If the ground is decent in the arc love will take all the beating . If it’s heavy in swoop won’t be far away and wonderful tonight and snowfall will be very close too. Looks like it could be a humdinger if an arc. Also bolshoi ballet may come into the reckoning. I hope it’s good to soft at worse then we could have a fabulous field.
 
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Bolshoi Ballet appears to be going for the Belmont Derby Invitational on Saturday over 1m2f.
 
Frankel said:
Cheshire Academy ran an interesting race today in the Jockey Club.
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Entered in the Grand Prix de Paris on Wednesday.

Hurricane Lane and Alenquer have been supplemented.

O'Brien has three entered, Sir Lamorak, Wordsworth and The Mediterranean.
 
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