The Arc 2021

So Wonderful Tonight is retired after an injury this morning and Adayar is also on the sidelines, misses the Niel, but should be back for the big race. That's a negative as is AOB's record in the race with 3yos so there must be some value somewhere and Raabihah is worth a tickle at 25s.
 
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good runs from Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane today, really is going to be a belter of a race, i've been waiting to back Adayar but the setback gives me hesitation. his form is rock solid though.
 
Tarnawa ran a very good race given trip/pace.
Hurricane Lane looked a steering job and was. Leger/Arc though, emmm.
Snowfall clearly not run her race today. That said, would want soft ground me thinks.

Adayar just observing!
 
Interesting that Frankie blames Snowfall's poor show in Yesterday's Vermeille on the steady pace set by Hollie Doyle (today's RP) amd, here's me, thinking that the person in the plate was responsible for how quickly a horse went.:lol:
Much more likely; he knew the filly wasn't fully primed for the race, and rode her accordingly.
Oh, what a tangled web Coolmore weave.........:whistle:
 
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reet hard said:
Interesting that Frankie blames Snowfall's poor show in Yesterday's Vermeille on the steady pace set by Hollie Doyle (today's RP) amd, here's me, thinking that the person in the plate was responsible for how quickly a horse went.:lol:
Much more likely; he knew the filly wasn't fully primed for the race, and rode her accordingly.
Oh, what a tangled web Coolmore weave.........:whistle:
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Always someone else's fault.
 
reet hard said:
Agreed, but the point is; he was being a tad disingenous about Snowfall's effort, and it may be mistaken to write her off her Arc chances on the strength of it.
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Yes, could be that the run has put her spot on for the Arc.
 
Another group one today for last year's second in the Yorkshire Oaks Alpinista.

When you think that Love beat Alpinista five lengths in that Yorkshire Oaks, while Alpinista has won four out of five races since.

Unfortunately I don't feel we've seen the very best of Love this season.

Who would have thought she'd be a 33/1 chance for the Arc 2021?
 
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Marb said:
Another group one today for last year's second in the Yorkshire Oaks Alpinista.

When you think that Love beat Alpinista five lengths in that Yorkshire Oaks, while Alpinista has won four out of five races since.

Unfortunately I don't feel we've seen the very best of Love this season.

Who would have thought she'd be a 33/1 chance for the Arc 2021?
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Cheers, Marb - taken a small slice@ 33/1
 
I've had a nibble at the Japanese horse (mare, to be precise). 10/1, top-rated on RPRs ahead of Adayar and Hurricane Lane so has to be a decent enough tool.

Edit - it was top when I looked earlier. I now see Adayar and Snowfall are rated slightly higher but both are noted as requiring to be supplemented. I wonder if they were left out earlier for that reason or if my page just opened up a wee bit off the top.

Either way, I'm ok with the 10/1 for now. She was only a neck off Mishriff at Meydan in the spring despite being bumped and carried off line.

(And mares do have a good record in the race.)
 
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reet hard said:
Interesting that Frankie blames Snowfall's poor show in Yesterday's Vermeille on the steady pace set by Hollie Doyle (today's RP) amd, here's me, thinking that the person in the plate was responsible for how quickly a horse went.:lol:
Much more likely; he knew the filly wasn't fully primed for the race, and rode her accordingly.
Oh, what a tangled web Coolmore weave.........:whistle:
Click to expand...

Thought I’d resurrect this one, reet. After that you said agreed, but the point is; he was being a tad disingenous about Snowfall's effort, and it may be mistaken to write her off her Arc chances on the strength of it..so far as I can tell no-one in the pundit brigade appears to have listened to you and I’m amazed that she barely rates a mention. She’s probably been trained for the Arc, after all, not the bloody Vermeille.

So, if she’s supplemented watch out!
 
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I'm toying with the idea of taking 40/1 Sealiway. It's only because two or three bookies aren't quoting him that's holding me back since it might mean he won't run but he was only a neck behind SMB in the French Derby and could still be a bit of a dark horse who might even improve for the step up in trip.
 
barjon said:
Thought I’d resurrect this one, reet. After that you said agreed, but the point is; he was being a tad disingenous about Snowfall's effort, and it may be mistaken to write her off her Arc chances on the strength of it..so far as I can tell no-one in the pundit brigade appears to have listened to you and I’m amazed that she barely rates a mention. She’s probably been trained for the Arc, after all, not the bloody Vermeille.

So, if she’s supplemented watch out!
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Her odds suggest she has hardly been forgotten!
 
Snowfall has never beaten another Group 1 horse and her trainer has never won it with a 3yo. She should be double figures.
 
I don't know what you're getting at. We are supposed to excuse the shitshow of the Vermeille as it was a stepping stone to the Arc?
 
Are you seriously suggesting that sitting out the back, off a slow pace, was rhe best way to ride Snowfall?
 
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I still believe Adayar is the class horse in the race, and has the potential to get even better (so, it would seem, do connections).
However, can't resist a small ew on Alenqer @ 25/1 (needs cut, ideally) in the belief he's been trained with this race in mnd.
 
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My thoughts exactly Reet and despite already being on Adayar at 6/1 and 11/2 I was just coming on to say I think Alenquer is now the value in the race.

Too much can be read into his defeat of Adayar at Sandown but it's clear he wants cut, which one would fully expect being by German sire Adlerflug and valid reasons can be give for his last two defeats.

He missed the break in the Grand Prix de Paris but finished roughly the same distance behind the winner as he was throughout the race. He didn't make any real inroads into the winners advantage but conversely he didn't lose any ground either and it's arguable that with a better break and being ridden more prominently he could have given the winner something to think about and yet he's 5 times the price of Hurricane Lane.

In the international he finished 2nd to officially the world's best 10f racehorse over a trip too short on ground most likely too lively. He was stronger hitting the line than anything bar the winner and the extra c. 2f and juice in the ground is only going to help him.

He strikes me as the sort of horse who'll have difficulty overcoming a bad draw so a bit of luck later in the week is required in that department but given that, the 25/1 or even 28/1 and 33/1 with smaller firms makes plenty of appeal, especially if that price holds up when the enhanced place terms are offered.
 
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Good shout that. I was looking back on past Arcs and when Treve and Enable won it as 4yo's there were no decent 3yo colts in oppo. Is that enough to be against the Weld mare? Maybe. I feel it may go to an outsider. Happy that Rabihaah has been confirmed as on target for the race.

Looking at the other races over the weekend I like:
Trueshan - Cadran
Audarya - Opera
Njord - Foret (20s is huge)
 
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