The Betfair Chase Haydock Park Sat Nov 24th

I don't think the race told us anything for later in the season. Bristol de Mai had his Gold Cup, Native River was game as usual but will have had later targets in mind, and Might Bite blew up. A race to erase from your mind unless you managed to sneak an extra point or two for the King George or Gold Cup.
 
I think that goes without saying although there is a chance at 7 years of age he has improved.

Kempton is a certainty for him with 1 million up for grabs

God only knows if Colin Tizzard will send River but may depend on Thistlecrack who showed some of his old sparkle after looking well beat 4 out

As for Clan Des Obeaux he'd have no chance at Kempton and the Hennessy looks a better option for him.
After that Ascot win over 2m5f PN must be thinking of sending Politilogue and possibly Black Corton

Might Bite will bounce out to back no doubt but I wouldn't be taking 5/2 as he could be gone.
He's airy fairy to my mind and the type that can lose form and take a couple of years before regaining it...time will tell
 
Personally think Might Bite faded out of contention too quickly and it may be that the Gold Cup in that bad ground has left it’s mark after all (notwithstanding his win at Aintree after)


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viking said:
Personally think Might Bite faded out of contention too quickly and it may be that the Gold Cup in that bad ground has left it’s mark after all (notwithstanding his win at Aintree after)


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I'm a big fan of the horse but yesterday was shocking -has questions to answer.I think Noel Meade will probably send RTR to Kempton.
Something that stood out for me yesterday was someone was trying to place lay Native Rapper for €8K just before the off-that is a fair chunk.
 
Nicky doesn't talk shyte very often but he could fill a horse box when making excuses for Might Bite.

During the race he was complimented on his jumping on several occasions and never made any sort of mistake that would upset your normal everyday top class chaser.

I thought 5 out he was in trouble and was actually counting the sheckles I was going to collect when it was just a matter of time before Native River would go past Bristol De Mai...

I most certainly got the latter wrong but that was because in my minds eye it was a 2 horse race.

Footnote: IMO Might Bite's Feltham time and his amazing recovery in the RSA has fooled alot of people into thinking he's the next Kauto Star e.g.

I think it's time to face facts. He scraped home in a very poor King George against a no more than above average opponent then was easily disposed of in the Gold Cup

Both races they made excuses. he idle, He didn't like that ground...now he got scared because he brushed through the top of a fence.......gimme a break he's a good horse but grossly overrated as I have been saying for months.

Lotta younger horses like Road to Respect Bellshill and PPPP...Percy who will be bigger dangers to Native River than Might Bite come March
 
viking said:
Personally think Might Bite faded out of contention too quickly and it may be that the Gold Cup in that bad ground has left it’s mark after all (notwithstanding his win at Aintree after)


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My thoughts entirely.
 
I didn't have a bet in the race but wanted to see MB win.

I was never happy with the way it was jumping although it seemed to get better for a few fences early on the second circuit as the pace picked up a bit before reverting to hesitancy.

Then again, I suppose I could say I wouldn't have been entirely happy with the way anything jumped and you have to wonder if the fences really were just far too big.

Maybe they were the way they used to be back in the fifties and sixties - maybe some older forumite will have that kind of detail but I couldn't imagine anything going too fast over that course yesterday.

I'm more inclined to go along with the theory that Might Bite, who tends to give his fences plenty of respect anyway, was expending too much energy with his jumping. I am always willing to forgive a horse one bad run, especially a seasonal debut.

I can't accept the the Gold Cup took too much out of it.

But I see the CoC is already talking about trimming the fences back.

What I would suggest is that anything that coped well with the fences yesterday should be kept in mind for Aintree.
 
HawkWing said:
immediate reaction - is it worth having a few quid on Thistlecrack for the stayers? Fences prevent him from running with his pre-injury freedom.
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The temptation to take him to Kempton for one last crack will surely be too much. Would you go hurdling then?
 
What made Thistlecrack special was that he never really settled and just galloped all over good horses. On the long bends he looked at times to be getting that head of steam up but looked as if the fences got in the way. Maybe they were that bit more intimidating than usual. Ran around going into the last down the back, pushed away from a few others to keep tabs. Im not sure he will ever get back to his KG form but if he can, I think his best chance of a Chelt win is the Stayers. Im sure its not their current plan though and they'll go for the KG with him, Im sure.
 
watched the race again there. Ran like the best horse in the race and to me struggled to get into that proper rhythm over those fences. Amazing he was a length off the leaders turning in. He wasnt knocked about and connections would be dead right to think that he could progress. The KG is the obvious target (and the value in the race IMO). He'll likely run well enough there to ensure he doesn't go to the stayers. But 25/1 with PP isn't the worst interest bet I'd have this year. I do think its his best chance of winning at the festival
 
The fences do looked to have played a part. I watched the race on ITV and at the start of the race Paisley Park won Henderson could be clearly seen down in the straight examining one of the last fences to be jumped. He was on the phone with a perplexed expression on his face.

Nico also said it in the immediate aftermath of the race and Haydock themselves have acknowledged as much since saying the fences were bigger than normal and would be reduced. MB seemed to panic over them and got overly big at a number of them.

He still tho looked to be at a level of fitness well short of what was required. My worry now is heading into next Saturday’s Fighting Fifth is that Buveur D’Air is in a similar situation. If he is he too will be caught out.


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Yeah, I've convinced myself now that Thistlecrack is outstanding value at 12/1 for the KG. EW viable. Looked like the most talented of that lot on Saturday, not knocked about at all yet was staying on from the last, race likely to cut up to have fewer than 8 runners, ground likely to be similar to this weekend, MB nothing to be frightened of scrambled home last year vs Double Shuffle, no excuse for BDM last year, and Waiting Patiently has it to prove.
 
I really don't buy this panic crap........Nothing but a lame excuse for a horse who simply was not right. When horses are in panic mode they will almost always make unforced errors belt one and lose ground rapidly.

I saw no evidence on that he jumped really most of the time and never made a one significant error.

Henderson was bumming his load a bout how fit he was before the race ...........his excuses come across more like prayers to me, in the hope he hasn't shot his bolt.

I'm told Buvi is only 50/50 for Saturday so you might be worrying unnecessarily
 
HawkWing said:
watched the race again there. Ran like the best horse in the race and to me struggled to get into that proper rhythm over those fences. Amazing he was a length off the leaders turning in. He wasnt knocked about and connections would be dead right to think that he could progress. The KG is the obvious target (and the value in the race IMO). He'll likely run well enough there to ensure he doesn't go to the stayers. But 25/1 with PP isn't the worst interest bet I'd have this year. I do think its his best chance of winning at the festival
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I agree with most of that but not so sure he's the value of the race. As I see it he's ran a cracker but against that Tizzard's horses are jumping out of their skin in comparison to most.

As others have pointed out that I am in total agreement with is early form isn't worth the paper it's written on
 
Tanlic said:
I really don't buy this panic crap........Nothing but a lame excuse for a horse who simply was not right. When horses are in panic mode they will almost always make unforced errors belt one and lose ground rapidly.

I saw no evidence on that he jumped really most of the time and never made a one significant error.

Henderson was bumming his load a bout how fit he was before the race ...........his excuses come across more like prayers to me, in the hope he hasn't shot his bolt.

I'm told Buvi is only 50/50 for Saturday so you might be worrying unnecessarily
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As Might Bite was concealed by the other two leaders for much of the way it was difficult to see accurately how he was jumping - he certainly seemed singularly less fluent than usual in the back straight both times .

It was very disappointing - this is a horse that apart from his fall in the Kauto Star/Feltham had not been out of the first two in a chase - for a long time if at all .
 
It's high time they got rid of Tellwrong.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...wered-and-softened-in-betfair-build-up/355314

When I was head of my department (in education) if we knew there was an inspection/verification coming up you made sure you knew what was supposed to be what. You had tome upon tome of 'guidelines' relating to every aspect of the service you should be providing.

Surely any CoC has all guidelines relating to the size and make up of obstacles. Jesuschrist I've even researched stuff like this myself on the Net.

So this clown goes and builds the fences too high and too densely packed. The inspector comes in and tells him to reduce it in both aspects, which he does but they end up still too high and too densely packed.

How incompetent is this guy?

What on earth must those fences have been like to start with?

Why not get the top local trainers and/or trainers already there to come in and look at the fences the day before the meeting?
 
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archie said:
Didn't seem to inconvenience Bristol De Mai or Native River that much.
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I'd say perhaps it was more a case of them inconveniencing them less than the others. I didn't think any of them looked comfortable at the fences. Same in the C&D handicap.

As I said the other day, the ones that negotiated those fences might be worth bearing in mind for Aintree.
 
HawkWing said:
Yeah, I've convinced myself now that Thistlecrack is outstanding value at 12/1 for the KG. EW viable. Looked like the most talented of that lot on Saturday, not knocked about at all yet was staying on from the last, race likely to cut up to have fewer than 8 runners, ground likely to be similar to this weekend, MB nothing to be frightened of scrambled home last year vs Double Shuffle, no excuse for BDM last year, and Waiting Patiently has it to prove.
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I had to panic this evening to snag the last of the 12/1 with Boyles...
 
Desert Orchid said:
It's high time they got rid of Tellwrong.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...wered-and-softened-in-betfair-build-up/355314

When I was head of my department (in education) if we knew there was an inspection/verification coming up you made sure you knew what was supposed to be what. You had tome upon tome of 'guidelines' relating to every aspect of the service you should be providing.

Surely any CoC has all guidelines relating to the size and make up of obstacles. Jesuschrist I've even researched stuff like this myself on the Net.

So this clown goes and builds the fences too high and too densely packed. The inspector comes in and tells him to reduce it in both aspects, which he does but they end up still too high and too densely packed.

How incompetent is this guy?

What on earth must those fences have been like to start with?

Why not get the top local trainers and/or trainers already there to come in and look at the fences the day before the meeting?
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I'd agree, chuck in the wrong distances they've done for the same race over the years shows he's a basket case.
 
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