The Betfair Chase Haydock Park Sat Nov 24th

granger said:
MB is a bit of a spoilt brat. He doesn't like it up him
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Clearly bollocks, PJ, when he went toe-to-toe at a relentless gallop with NR, on Heavy ground in the Gold Cup.

Short memories no use in this game. Clearly, MB was disappointing at Haydock, but it’s patently too soon to be writing him off, or indulging in revisionism like this.
 
Grasshopper said:
Clearly bollocks, PJ, when he went toe-to-toe at a relentless gallop with NR, on Heavy ground in the Gold Cup.

Short memories no use in this game. Clearly, MB was disappointing at Haydock, but it’s patently too soon to be writing him off, or indulging in revisionism like this.
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I said at the time and still think it, his GC run and Aintree afterwards will have left a mark on him - he had a few quirks as it was.

I didn't like his run at the weekend at all, maybe something will come to light but he didn't like it when it got tough on Saturday
 
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All opinions may be expressed, but are not necessarily valid or accurate. :cool:

Don’t think you can say with any degree of confidence that “he didn’t like it” when the going got tough. It was all-over the display of a horse lacking in fitness, imo.

Time will tell.
 
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Grasshopper said:
All opinions may be expressed, but are not necessarily valid or accurate. :cool:

Don’t think you can say with any degree of confidence that “he didn’t like it” when the going got tough. It was all-over the display of a horse lacking in fitness, imo.

Time will tell.
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How fit was he? He's 7/2 for the King George so he would want to have been seriously unfit. Unless Hendo told him to ease up if beat.
 
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De Boinville didn’t try a tap after two out, imo.

The performance clearly wasn’t ideal - disappointing, in fact - and I confess I’m not exactly scattering the furniture to back him for Kempton......but it’s too soon to write him off, and absolutely wrong to describe him as a coward, on the back of the Haydock run.
 
Maybe it was the jockey that was timid, rather rhan the horse?
There are solid reasons for believing that could have been the case.
 
What people want to be the case and what is the actual situation vary so much when rose coloured glasses have been worn.

This is not the first time he's been found wanting at the business end and wilted.

Looking all over the winner in the King George his stride shortened and his momentum reduced to such a degree he was almost caught by a middle of the road chaser in Double Shuffle

He the goes to the Gold cup and like on Saturday can't quite match Native River in getting from one side of a fence to the other.
Then at the business end the same thing that happened at Kempton happens again only this time he's tacking a much stronger opponent in Native River.

At Haydock it's history repeating itself and for the most part he's not making errors he's just being out jumped by Native River.

The big difference this time is Bristol De Mai runs the best race of his life and wins.

The Betfair of course is his Gold Cup and would most likely be the fittest of the 3.

But it's the similarity between the King George and The Gold Cup runs that jump out at me.

Native River Jumping better and Might Bite wilting at the business end....it's just too much of a coincidence that he has done this 3 times now.

As far as Nico not trying a tap after 2 out ???

Nico who doesn't need to be told when to stop rowing the boat was giving it everything and if you watch closely doesn't stop until CDO re-passed him.

He could have knocked 10 bells out of him and finished 4th at best but he'd be looking for a new job if he had.
 
Can anyone make a strong case for taking 4/1 Might Bite for the King George? The layers will want him on the day regardless of field size. I don't see much scope in the price. I'm going in again at 10/1 e/w on Thistlecrack this morning.
 
Even I can't make the case, Slim.

However, if the Henderson horses are running better at that time (so many failed to finish off their races the last couple of weekends) I could be tempted.
 
Chris Cook in The Guardian

All not lost ?

There’s no creature of habit like a racehorse trainer and this reflection gives me hope that Might Bite can bounce back when we next see him and either win the King George or go close to it. Yes, he was disappointing in Saturday’s Betfair Chase but it seems relevant to me that he is Nicky Henderson’s fourth beaten favourite in that race, which the Lambourn man has never won.
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</aside>The most recent of those four was Bobs Worth, back in 2013. He went to Haydock unbeaten for 21 months, having landed the Hennessy and the Cheltenham Gold Cup the previous season, but he fared as poorly in the Betfair as Might Bite, trailing home in sixth, 40 lengths behind Cue Card. The track’s speed-favouring nature was said to be against him but Barry Geraghty added: “He’ll be sharper and will have benefited from it.”
Long Run was favourite for the previous two Betfairs. Though he couldn’t win the race, he ran to a high level each time, chasing home Kauto Star in 2011 and Silviniaco Conti in 2012.
What interests me is how these horses fared next time out, having run below market expectations at Haydock. Long Run couldn’t turn the form around with Kauto Star at Kempton but he got a lot closer to him, being beaten just a length and a quarter in the King George by one of the greatest chasers there ever was. The next year, he bounced back from his reappearance defeat at Haydock to win the King George.


Bobs Worth also fared much better next time. Stuffed in the Betfair, he went to Ireland a month later and won the Lexus, a performance about two stones better than his Haydock effort.
Might Bite, Henderson’s first runner in the Betfair since Bobs Worth, looked like the second coming of Sprinter Sacre in the paddock on Saturday but didn’t seem to enjoy those stiff fences and tired badly in the last quarter-mile. Nothing has been found to be amiss with him, we are told, and so the likeliest explanation for me is that he just wasn’t quite as ready as the others in the field.
As ever, his trainer’s main focus is on the King George and, beyond that, Cheltenham in March. Surely the likely outcome is that Might Bite will put up a much improved showing at Kempton next month and the 4-1 is tempting for me.
 
I haven't read the handicapper's blog so don't know what his train of thought is but he only put BDM up 4lbs to 169 for Saturday.

My guess is that he is factoring in the fences making life difficult for them all, preventing them from showing their very best form.

At the same time, I've never had a high rating for Native River so he appears to have run to form.

A look a the ORs of the principals tells its own story.

Going into the race they were (in finishing order) 165, 176, 165 and 157 (leaving out Might Bite who was looked after from two out).

Rate the race through Clan Des Obeaux in fourth and the winner only comes out on 163. Through Thistlecrack, the winner comes out on 169. But through Native River you'd have the winner on 179 but it would also put Thistlecrack and Clan Des Obeaux uncomfortably high on 175 and 173 resoectively.

I suspect the handicapper sees the second scenario as a 'best fit' as he's only raised Clan Des Obeaux 3lbs.

For me it's been a duff race run on a duff course organised by a duffer.

Best forgotten as the circumstances are unlikely to be replicated in the future.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Even I can't make the case, Slim.

However, if the Henderson horses are running better at that time (so many failed to finish off their races the last couple of weekends) I could be tempted.
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Is that because you have him so far clear on ratings?
 
SlimChance said:
Is that because you have him so far clear on ratings?
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Yeah, kind of...

More a matter of faith in his ability, though, I'd have to say. My top rating for him is 4lbs above my top rating for Native River but I've always believed he was a long way better again, based mainly on what he did in the final mile of his RSA. There was a quote by Ruby Walsh about that race - maybe someone has it filed - along the lines of being convinced MB was going too fast and would never get home then he suddenly kicked clear leaving them all for dead and not slowing until going quirky after the last. Even then he got back up and was going away again after the line. I thought it was a very telling comment from Ruby at the time.

Edit - here you go:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/rub...of-the-greatest-horses-we-ve-ever-seen/322330
 
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And don't forget what Whisper did subsequently in the Ladbrokes... and Bellshill in all three races the next season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
And here's the race itself (with French commentary!):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwi6lWJDoJo
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Still amazes me how he got back up.

I find it interesting he hasn't run a race like that since. Is that because of better opposition and better front runners along with him? Or is that a plan to iron out his quirks?

Either way, the Betfair didn't fill me with confidence, especially for a horse I couldn't get beat for the 2019 Gold Cup. I've since switched to Road to Respect. Merely for the price, the race is wide open again now though.
 
I think the plan was to run him like that in the Gold Cup but the soft ground meant a switch to Plan B and try to beat Native River for speed, which looked like paying off until he did a Wayward Lad up the hill.
 
Suprisingly no one seems to give Bristol De Mai a chance in the King George. It's either Might Bite or Thistlecrack to make a comeback.

I was the first person to right him off last year saying he had no chance at Kempton or Cheltenham.

However there mus be a chance that last years exertions at the age of 6 took their toll on him for the rest of the season.

He's at the age now when chasers can improve by leaps and bounds and he's certainly proved everyone who thought he needed a bog wrong.

Last year never worked out for him and it was one poor performance after another but he did hold his form well enough as a novice.

I reckon at 8/1 he's decent ew value as he could take some beating this time round on Boxing Day
 
BDM’s age is irrelevant. He has had 20 starts in chases, and there is little-to-no hope of him ‘improving’.

He is what he is - top-class round Haydock, but merely high-class elsewhere.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't read the handicapper's blog so don't know what his train of thought is but he only put BDM up 4lbs to 169 for Saturday.

My guess is that he is factoring in the fences making life difficult for them all, preventing them from showing their very best form.

At the same time, I've never had a high rating for Native River so he appears to have run to form.

A look a the ORs of the principals tells its own story.

Going into the race they were (in finishing order) 165, 176, 165 and 157 (leaving out Might Bite who was looked after from two out).

Rate the race through Clan Des Obeaux in fourth and the winner only comes out on 163. Through Thistlecrack, the winner comes out on 169. But through Native River you'd have the winner on 179 but it would also put Thistlecrack and Clan Des Obeaux uncomfortably high on 175 and 173 resoectively.

I suspect the handicapper sees the second scenario as a 'best fit' as he's only raised Clan Des Obeaux 3lbs.

For me it's been a duff race run on a duff course organised by a duffer.

Best forgotten as the circumstances are unlikely to be replicated in the future.
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Here's his take (from the BHA blog pages):

Luckily, I didn’t have to contend with a 57-length win and with Clan des Obeaux and Thistlecrack not beaten that far, it gives sensible parameters on which to base the obvious ballpark minimums and maximums. I also looked at the historical standards and a time comparison with the concluding handicap on the card.
Standards wise, the 5 years of results I used, allied to the difference at the weights produced in this running, varied markedly (from 146 to 171), with an average of the those figures being in the low 160s and the median in the high 160s. Time wise, the Betfair worked out around 40 lbs quicker than the now 146-rated Vintage Clouds.
Taking all the pre and post-race information into account, I have raised Bristol de Mai 4 lbs to 169, which is 4lb lower than the figure he was awarded this time last year. Other than Clan des Obeaux just about recording a personal best at 160 (his Aintree run is almost a match following a collateral rise), I have left all the other ratings for now which means Native River and Might Bite still top the staying chase rankings on 176 and 172 respectively.
 
tanlic said:
i think that goes without saying although there is a chance at 7 years of age he has improved.

Kempton is a certainty for him with 1 million up for grabs

god only knows if colin tizzard will send river but may depend on thistlecrack who showed some of his old sparkle after looking well beat 4 out

as for clan des obeaux he'd have no chance at kempton and the hennessy looks a better option for him.
After that ascot win over 2m5f pn must be thinking of sending politilogue and possibly black corton

might bite will bounce out to back no doubt but i wouldn't be taking 5/2 as he could be gone.
He's airy fairy to my mind and the type that can lose form and take a couple of years before regaining it...time will tell
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no chance.
 
Why would anyone dig out an old post unless they were some kind of KUNT...I also did a few paragraphs on why Might Bite is overrated.............no one gets it right all the time

Show me one post where you have said you think any horse will win.

Until then keep the silly comments for someone who gives a fvck about what you have to say which is usually nothing of interest
 
:lol: I'll be honest if anyone wants to dig up any old posts of mine where I talk **** or got things wildly wrong ...you're going to need a bigger shovel !

Sticking around £600 on Ashkazar from prices down from 200/1 in the outrights to 14s in the without markets for a stayers hurdle was probably one of my finest bloopers. :)


Ah good times, good times.
 
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