The Cesarewitch

Tout Seul

Tout Seul

Senior Jockey
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
2,628
Takes place next Saturday. Still trying to fathom it out but at first glance the 120 and 130 on Befair tonight for Bowdlers Magic looked far too high. Though the horse may not run, at those odds I have taken the small amount available. Does the distance, comes late of a close up position-suited by the dip, is in fair form and should get ground he goes on.
 
Last edited:
Has he won over 2 miles? When is the all important draw? I keep looking at Ermyn Lodge and [this one makes no sense but I've been keen on him for a place ever since the declarations] La Estrella. Of the Pipe horses I like Tasheba although not sure if that one will get in. May be a lot of withdrawals due to the ground. My favourite race [next to the Ebor].
 
I love the Ebor, but for some reason the Ces leaves me cold. The race could hardly look more out of place on 'Future Champions' Day' either.
 
davidjohnson said:
The race could hardly look more out of place on 'Future Champions' Day' either.
Click to expand...

Indeed, exposed dogs who are too slow to run in anything else on the flat. They should have moved it to Cambridgeshire day to bump that card up half a notch.
 
Same card as Cambridgeshire probably doesn't make sense as they'll be competeting with each other for turnover, but certainly would have looked better on last weeks card.
 
Anyway you can't have it on the same day. The traditionalists will moan that the likes of Nanton won't be able to attempt the Autumn Double!
 
ANyone can help- me with the draw here??? I knwo drawn high is and advantage in the past but have they moved the stall numbers this year, therefore drawn low being the advantage???


Thanks
 
Moehat is usually the one to listen to on these races. A good e/w case can be made for Ermyn Lodge. The new Pipe inmate Tasheba could be anything in terms of the new trainer finding improvement.

I've had Dazinski on my radar for ages as a horse waiting to win. Didn't back him last time when winning at 20/1 at York but I still think he is potentially a Sergeant Cecil mold of handicapper that is waiting to win a big one and could go on a role either this year on next.

Market looks to have it about right with Keys, Tuscan Gold & Veiled all with live chances. That doesn't change the fact it's a enormous handicap and many of those at bigger prices have a chance as well. I think Dazinski is probably the one for me.
 
Last edited:
Race is doing my head in this year, marb. Couldn't wait to get home to see the draw today and there was my 'dark horse' Red Anthem with an amazing draw! Ermyn Lodge has a perfect one as well. Bow to No One is in 4; has had lots of racing this year but has the magic words 'held up in rear' in it's profile. 2nd to Martyr last year, as well. Dazinski's got a bad draw, hasn't he, and I still feel he doesn't like the track; Palomar's got a decent one. Ashbrittles got a bad draw, but has got the visor back on [so they mean business]. And I've backed La Estrella again at 50/1 [he's my Moyenne Cornishe horse] and L Frank Baum at 100's because I've been following him all year and I'm still desperate to get that 100/1 winner. One more look at the race tonight and then my head will probably explode....
 
First 5 last year were 30,16,13,17 and 28. Pretty much the same in previous years [although a couple have won from 1].
 
Bar the Bull said:
At the risk of this descending into another Arc thread, is there any analysis to show that the draw really matters over 2m2f at Newmarket?
Click to expand...

I remember seeing some quite convincing stats a few years ago.

The very large field size would have a lot to do with it. The horses drawn furthest from the rail are very wide indeed and either get trapped out there or concede a lot of ground because of the mass of horses inside them. Apparently there is also a slope away from the rail, so that those nearest it are on higher ground coming into the bend than those out wide.
 
I think draw 16 could be the one with the loveable rogue Trovare who has plenty of course form,the excellent Harry Bentley taking off three and hopefully his confidence boosted after his recent narrow victory over hurdles at Plumpton.

50's looks big.
 
moehat said:
Race is doing my head in this year, marb.
Click to expand...

LOL Moe. What you say on Dazinski makes a lot of sense, I'm not happy with his track form at all. One that does have track form, and seems to be better on a right handed track is Bernie The Bolt but he's got a massive 416 day break to bounce back from, and a big weight to boot. A key piece of form for this race could be the Ascot Stakes could it not? There you had Veiled (1st), Ermyn Lodge (2nd), Phoenix Flight (3rd), La Estrella (5th) and Palomar (7th). Below is the handicap rating that each of those horses has went up/down since.

Veiled - 7 pound higher
Ermyn Lodge - 3 pound higher
Phoenix Flight - 2 pound higher
La Estrella - 2 pound higher
Palomar - 4 pound lower.

I'm quite interested by Phoenix Flight. 8 wins from 40 starts is not a bad strike rate. The career best came in the Ascot Stakes where he stayed on strongly to get 3rd. He was subsequently tailed off in a lesser event at Kempton over two miles next time out, before staying on strongly next time at Ascot over the same two miles. A real decent clip will suit this horse and he's definately one that I think could out run his odds of 50/1, although I guess the high draw is against him.
 
Last edited:
Translating numbering to the current system, the following stalls have produced horses in the first 4 on 3 or more occasions:

1,2,3,4,8,9,12,16,19

Winners have come from:

1,2,3,4,9,11,12,16,19,23,26.

With 1,4,11 & 12 producing 2 winners apiece.
 
Can the case be made for Sentry Duty this year? Fits the bill on a number of counts (draw, weight, rating, ran in the right races, class 2 winner, listed hurdle winner) and will appreciate the ground. I can see Murtagh getting a good tune out of him. Maybe he's not good enough as per last year but he was given a bit to do. He's my first choice.

Also like, Keys and at a bigger price La Estrella.
 
I am looking back and don't see the bias. Again translating into the new system:

2004 34 ran
1st 4 home 19, 25, 5, 18

2005 36 ran
1st 4 home 9, 36, 33, 26

2006 31 ran
1st 4 home 4, 1, 22, 13

2007 33 ran
1st 4 home 12, 7, 9, 34

2008 32 ran
1st 4 home 25, 4, 8, 22

2009 32 ran
1st 4 home 12, 21, 29, 2

2010 32 ran
1st 4 home 3, 17, 20, 16

So I make it bottom quarter: 9 places. Second quarter 5 places. Third quarter 8 places. Last quarter 6 places.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top