The Cesarewitch

Being overbet imo. Looking at his pedigree and the way staying races are run in France I can't see him being at his best towards the end of the race.

I like Pallasator who should come on for his run at Haydock the other day. He's a massive horse who will carry the weight and just keep going in a relentless manner. Hopefully 12s and five places will be available on the day
 
He is a strong stayer though and it looks like Newmarket is in for some rain so hopefully no "firm" in the going description.
 
I decided that with £250,000 up for grabs in the main race Broxbourne might not be overextended in the trial. Have done well backing the horse this season and thus can afford the bets I have for this race. Even hoovered up some small change 45+ on Betfair.

The run at Goodwood shows the potential and it is worth noting that the likes of Ladbrokes did not lengthen their odds. The current 25/1 is well taking imo with a place element to cover stakes.
 
So they were happy to win shy of £20K at York with Broxbourne, but weren't interested in going for the £30K+ prize at Newmarket?
 
Yes, but her mark still went up for winning at York.

Interesting that the yard won the trial with another horse in the yard that is also going for the main event too.
 
davidjohnson said:
So they were happy to win shy of £20K at York with Broxbourne, but weren't interested in going for the £30K+ prize at Newmarket?
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Is it possible they didn't think she'd get in unless she won another race at that point?

Looking at the five day decs, it looks much less competitive than in recent seasons. It looks like a mark in the high-70s will get in and that the handicap will be a 2st spread. I think this might be unusual compared with recent trends but I haven't checked.
 
davidjohnson said:
Yes, but her mark still went up for winning at York.

Interesting that the yard won the trial with another horse in the yard that is also going for the main event too.
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Broxbourne will be 5lbs better off with Oriental Fox for 36 lengths on Saturday. Clearly enough, given the stable, for that form to be turned round.
 
What is clear is that Broxbourne did not run her race in the trial, nor in the Goodwood race in September. Tiring some way out does not seem to tie in with her earlier performances particularly at Goodwood, where she was pushed back, hampered and yet came through strongly to win.
Of course she is carrying more weight, she might even be OTT, but I believe she may well be capable of even more than she has shown and has the right attitude in that she wants to win ( a welcome trait often absent from the nags carrying my money).
A structured bet whereby a place return covers the win portion means I'll be still be getting a return in excess of 25 times if I'm right, appears a worthwhile punt. My stake is less than 3 times my stake when she won at Goodwood as my main bet of the meeting (put up on here) so only partially drawing down winnings. I'll be disappointed if she doesn't put in a major effort but ecstatic if she wins.
 
I don't disagree with any of that, it's the assertion that she was just having a run round in a race worth in excess of £30k to the winner I disagreed with when the weights are already out of the race and her mark won't get dropped for it anyway.

Think this is Pallasator's chance to shine, he's a bit quirky but think the step up in trip will definitely suit. He was the only one at Haydock to get into the race from off the pace and still has few miles on the clock.
 
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I acknowledge your point and its merits, David. I hope I'm not too defensive as debate is one of the main attractions of the forum. Rightly or not I think that if I were the owner my logic process would involve consideration of the point I outlined and therefore, for me, it is a possible course of action. Good luck with Pallasator!
 
Must admit this Smoky Hill looks thrown in but the price has gone. I joined in at 10 sadly which was just value and if you can get 5 places, I would still take 8.

Isn't Waterclock a bit big at 33? Nice draw and lightly raced unexposed sort who looks like he needs a trip.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Smoky Hill a shoe in, surely
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Not necessarily a shoo-in but shaping up as a must bet. If the form can be taken at face value and if the track and/or going don't inconvenience it, and if it avoids trouble in running and if the jockey doesn't **** it up... it might be a good thing in which case it has to be a bet but not necessarily the bet.
 
Rather taken with Albert Bridge. Came 7th last year with a bad draw and has had a couple of seconds over two miles. Nice weight and a good draw. Probably not up to winning but 33/1 with Ladbrokes first five places is worth risking a few bob.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is it possible they didn't think she'd get in unless she won another race at that point?

Looking at the five day decs, it looks much less competitive than in recent seasons. It looks like a mark in the high-70s will get in and that the handicap will be a 2st spread. I think this might be unusual compared with recent trends but I haven't checked.
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I might have been wrong in saying the above. It's a terrific renewal. The weight and ratings ranges are just about right for the race but the inclusion of the French horse adds a bit of extra spice.

From my own item:
This is another compelling renewal with more angles than a protractor, more plots than the crime fiction section of the library, more... you get the picture.

Recession Proof is immediately interesting. The form book said he ran well for a long way on his comeback after two years off and he’s very well handicapped if he can translate his excellent fifth in the 2011 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle back to the Flat. If he’s been plotted up then it was a bit of a gamble not to get him up the handicap but maybe they were confident he'd get in anyway as it isn't as if he's just scraped through.

Smoky Hill might be thrown in too but I see RPRs have drastically revised down the mark they had him on for his recent defeat by Domeside. I’m glad I didn’t dive in during the week as I was allowing myself to be guided a bit by that figure. Then there’s the trip, jockey, etc and suddenly the 8/1 isn’t so tempting.

Balding’s yard is flying, as is Murphy whose claim will be especially invaluable at this trip, and Chiberta King looks a plot.

Scatter Dice is 2lbs lower than when beaten just over two lengths in the Northumberland Plate and is visored for the first time.

Pallasator ran a terrific race in the Ebor, being held up in rear off a less than generous pace. He was pushed along for some way to keep his position but ran on well up the straight. He was a public gamble that day but I suspect it was a prep for this race which should suit him so much better.

Lieutenant Miller showed improvement last time and Henderson knows what it takes to win this race but I have to say I’m more interested in this one’s return to hurdles. He might have a real shout in something like the Greatwood. In any case, Henderson also has Earth Amber who had some higher-rated animals behind him first time out before disappointing in the Sagaro.

Big Easy might prefer this test to the Ascot Stakes and has a shout on his best hurdling form.

Plenty of others will have chances too but these are the ones that interest me most. My main bet will be Pallasator but I’ll have savers on Recession Proof, Chiberta King, and Big Easy.
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Tiger Cliff has the class, and travels well enough for his draw not to be insurmountable.
The only question would be whether he truly stays, as his Ascot race was run at a nothing pace, and the ground here looks appreciably softer. Well worth finding out at current prices, though.
 
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