The Clinton Affair

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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If you want an opinion of someone that actually knows what he's talking about go listen to Victor Davis Hanson. He is no Trump apologist for what he says but is a massive believer in his policies. In 50 years people will talk about Trump nullifying every single thing Obama did in 8 years and he will be a nothing president. I see beauty in that the rest of you see RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I was wrong you are not a degenerate gambler.
You are a delusional, degenerate gambler.

Never heard of Victor Davis Hanson so went to check him out and very quickly came up with this tasty morsel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDdSsA9ZcrQ

Wow is all I can say!!! Spent some time reading the comments as well just to make sure to be informed.

Nothing much else to say but apparently Hanson is a farmer too so this one's for you Vic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCkmOCsI-hc
 
How long for and when?

Trump's RCP average has been locked between 37% and 43% throughout his Presidency. And a big part of that is Rasmussen throwing in a favourable one every week. He's now got to contend with the fact that his well respected Defence Secretary has quit because of this decision too. Mattis is some sort of God to the US Marine Corps. For every one he might gain, he's going to be losing one as well. Even if Trump goes from 39% approval to 41% for a period of 2 weeks, it doesn't change anything

Trump has a ceiling and a floor. A massive majority of votes in 2020 are already locked in. Trump operates in a narrow band. His base can't win him an election. He needs the habitual Republican voters too. If they begin to drift off, he'll lose. Even Fox are starting to place a few hedges on him now. The relationship was always transactional anyway.

America is going to be facing an economic deterioration in 2020. Trump is going to be very vulnerable to that as well.

There is an index which has been spot on for predicting recessions on 11 out of the last 11 since the war (I think it's 11?). That concerns the spread in yields between 2y and 10y US bond. When they converge, or even invert, a recession has followed within 12-18 months (every single time). They haven't quite 'kissed' yet, but they've been puckering up to each other for 3 months now. Last time I checked the gap was something like 0.2%

His best hope right now is the Democrats finding a lousy candidate

He's also got 17 legal actions/ life enquiries going on into him at the moment as well, and some of them look pretty damn good. Even Fox's house legal expert says they've likely sealed an indictment against him already

The Senators to watch are going to be Romney, as he's capable of providing a totem that McCain couldn't, and then the likes of Rubio, Sasse, Kennedy and Burr. These will be the sort of bell weather ones I reckon. When they begin failing to speak up in support of Trump he slides a little closer to the trap door

Continue to admire your perseverance Warbler but why do you bother? It would be easier for you to convert the pope to atheism.

I don't know where Trump is supposed to gain the one from the Mattis resignation but we'll see.
 
Exhibit A of my degenerate gambler statement.

If for some reason I'm wrong I'll quote the heavyweight Republican donor ( the biggest in New England), multi billionaire and major racehorse owner (this is after all a racing forum) Seth Klarman:

“Trump is ill tempered, with chronic impulsivity, limited attention span, ignorance of history and flawed judgment” — To those who say he has instituted some good policies. “I don’t care what good things are happening because I am drawn to focus on the democratic norms that are being eroded,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what the ends are. The means disqualify the ends.” Any good decisions Mr. Trump makes, he said, should be seen as “random or lucky.”

This quote is from early in the year, there has been some erosion in the random and lucky lately.

So if you are right on this one as far as I am concerned it's random and lucky. Win win for me.

Viva the age of Trump where we can all make shite up as we go.
 
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I was wrong you are not a degenerate gambler.
You are a delusional, degenerate gambler.

Never heard of Victor Davis Hanson so went to check him out and very quickly came up with this tasty morsel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDdSsA9ZcrQ

Wow is all I can say!!! Spent some time reading the comments as well just to make sure to be informed.

Nothing much else to say but apparently Hanson is a farmer too so this one's for you Vic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCkmOCsI-hc

Are you seriously saying Victor Davis Hanson is not smart?
 
Continue to admire your perseverance Warbler but why do you bother? It would be easier for you to convert the pope to atheism.

I don't know where Trump is supposed to gain the one from the Mattis resignation but we'll see.

Put the vote to the people. The American public want out of Syria including progressives that you pretend to be with.
 
If for some reason I'm wrong I'll quote the heavyweight Republican donor ( the biggest in New England), multi billionaire and major racehorse owner (this is after all a racing forum) Seth Klarman:

“Trump is ill tempered, with chronic impulsivity, limited attention span, ignorance of history and flawed judgment” — To those who say he has instituted some good policies. “I don’t care what good things are happening because I am drawn to focus on the democratic norms that are being eroded,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what the ends are. The means disqualify the ends.” Any good decisions Mr. Trump makes, he said, should be seen as “random or lucky.”

This quote is from early in the year, there has been some erosion in the random and lucky lately.

So if you are right on this one as far as I am concerned it's random and lucky. Win win for me.

Viva the age of Trump where we can all make shite up as we go.

Trump is a populist not a GOP hack. I'd love if the media would just admit that withdrawing from Syria is what the American people want. The fact Trump is willing to bury Lindsay Graham is fabulous. Lindsay Graham got ran over in the primaries but now the media is using him to bash Trump. Pathetic.
 
Where have I said that? The guy is smart, dangerously so. And I do not mean that in a good way.

He is right about Trump. He hates Trump's rhetoric as much as you but sees the balls in his policy . The fact the media is going hawkish over Syria is a ******* betrayal of the American people.
 
You won't this argument. I've not worked in 24 months. If you fancy laying me I'm all ears.

24 months not bad. I thought it was more like ten minutes.

You do know though that until you quit you are just aspiring. Come back to me in say ten years from now.

I don't need to lay you I've already made my money. My time has come and gone and it is a young man's game.
I'm mostly too lazy for this gambling shite these days.

But I do sincerely wish you good luck in your endeavor.
 
24 months not bad. I thought it was more like ten minutes.

You do know though that until you quit you are just aspiring. Come back to me in say ten years from now.

I don't need to lay you I've already made my money. My time has come and gone and it is a young man's game.
I'm mostly too lazy for this gambling shite these days.

But I do sincerely wish you good luck in your endeavor.

Look whatever. This is all pointless. I'm sure you are an upstanding guy and I would like to think you could accept the same of me. We view the world differently and it's pointless going back and forth. All I will add is that if you did serve your country, which I believe you did than God ******* bless you. You're a better man than most.
 
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I'm fully in tune with the hypocrisy here. I'm not one of those though. I still view Dubya's presidency as an unmitigated disaster and Cheney will forever be the evil dark knight in my book. I will also say that I believe Dubya to be an inherently decent person.

Trump is an immoral shite show along with his ghoulish offspring and all the enablers and bootlickers he surrounds himself with.

This man could not even run a foundation, using it mainly as a one stop self service station.
 
I'm fully in tune with the hypocrisy here. I'm not one of those though. I still view Dubya's presidency as an unmitigated disaster and Cheney will forever be the evil dark knight in my book. I will also say that I believe Dubya to be an inherently decent person.

Trump is an immoral shite show along with his ghoulish offspring and all the enablers and bootlickers he surrounds himself with.

This man could not even run a foundation, using it mainly as a one stop self service station.

Truce? Move on?
 
I did serve. 6 years, seems like another life. I can send you pics if you wish.

I also renounced my citizenship, the toughest decision I've ever had to make, took me almost two years to come to that.
I blame some of that on Trump, that ******* draft dodge. I wish there was a hell so he could fry there with the devil's fingernail stuck up his fat ass.

At least my integrity is still mostly intact.
 
Truce? Move on?

Fine with me just don't go off on Mueller again, too me a real hero in this sorry saga.
I did make some remarks on my own personal thread you started on the racing thread, which upon reflection were maybe a bit ill advised, so let's leave it at that.
 
I don't doubt for a second you believe what you say and I respect your service. I just think America will be great after Trump and I hope you don't regret renouncing your citizenship
 
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Fine with me just don't go off on Mueller again, too me a real hero in this sorry saga.
I did make some remarks on my own personal thread you started on the racing thread, which upon reflection were maybe a bit ill advised, so let's leave it at that.

Im admitting they were ill advised. I'm as passionate about my position as you are yours that's why it escalates. BUT I'm sure if I met you in person we'd get on fine so I'm looking for a truce.
 
We're good maybe someday I'll pop over to Ireland for some race meet and we can down a few suds and exchange notes.
 
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I'm happy to bet Trump's approval rating goes up. The media will spin it as if Puntin says that it's good than it Must be bad. This will be wildly popular with progressives on the left I'm a buyer of Trump's approval rating.

As of today Trump's approval rating on the RCP average is 42.4. His lowest in the last 18 months has been 37.7 and his highest 44.4. There isn't much upside left.

I think you're likely deluding yourself if you think there's going to be a wave of liberal progressives who suddenly flock to Trump over a decision to retreat from Syria. Especially as they come to realise that its all about Turkey and trying to strike a deal with them which prevents the Turks from heaping further embarrassment on Trump's beloved Saudi Arabia. Indeed, I note that even Joe Scarborough got himself on message today having spent yesterday pursuing links to Putin. I can only assume that someone has explained the real motives behind Trump's move as he cryptically referenced "events in a courthouse earlier this week" (which was of course a secondary motive that I alluded to yesterday given that Flynn was an unregistered foreign agent for Turkey cracking deals on their behalf)

The people you're describing "progressives on the left" are higher information voters, they aren't going to perform a 180 on this cynical move. These people have long ago decided what they think about Trump. Their minds are made up. If you're relying on them to win a buy position you're likely going to struggle, and before you commit to it, you need to also trade out any loss of support from his own supporters who lap up the idea of exceptionalism.

Also you need to factor in other things when looking at the approval rating.

As things stand, he hasn't got a Chief of Staff, hasn't got an Attorney General, has just lost his Defence Secretary, he's just shut the government down, the stock market has had its worst December since 1931 and he's just been ordered to close his foundation down for inappropriate function. All this in the last 10 days. He's got a total 17 legal cases in against him, plus six major investigations. Someone is sooner or later going to put two and two together about Stephanie Wolkoff as well. This is just an example of one of them!

For those unaware, she's a friend of Melania Trump whose line of business is party planning and event organisation. She founded WIS Media Partners in December 2016, (six week before the inauguration) and was paid a bit less than $26m towards organising the event. On November 19th, 2016, Trump agreed to settle the legal case brought against him for fraud involving Trump University for a total of $25m. Coincidence? We'll see. Has he really used WIS to funnel his legal settlement through using inauguration donations to pay off his fine?

Trumps in real trouble, trust me.
 
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