The Coral Eclipse Sandown Sat July 6

Cant have the Fugue. May come on from ascot but i wonder. How many of these top horses with top trainers are wheezing round like mcririck in a swingers party, first time out in group ones?

Ran on ok but was pretty well beaten. 3 and half lengths a lot to make up
 
Three and a half lengths isn't a lot at all to make in the context of the race. She was worst placed of all the principals when the pace picked up. I'd expect her to be right alongside where Al Kazeem and Mukhadram are on Saturday at worst.
 
But why was she worst placed ? Ill bé watching it again but its always a bit too much to assume that if they had been closer they would have ended up closer
 
clivex said:
But why was she worst placed ? Ill bé watching it again but its always a bit too much to assume that if they had been closer they would have ended up closer
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Because they only went a lowish pace. The result flattered Mukhardram greatly.

Might all be irrelevant if the mind numbing support for Dec of War continues as I might back The Fugue and AK.
 
Yes but I've always thought there has been a tendency to overrate horses that were "too far back" and underrate front runners. And M is lightly raced enough to improve again, especially under his smart trainer. Could argue price is good

But really liked the way the fav battled last time out. Really goes through with effort and sandown being sandown, that's a plus isn't it

Agree about Dec of war.
 
Clive

I think you make a fair point. A prominent racer that gets the run of things has quite a good chance of getting a similar set of circumstances and being able to do the same again.

Mukhadram does indeed look as if likely to get the run of things from the front, but I suspect in this smaller field and with a run behind her, The Fugue will get closer even if I can't be confident she'll reverse placings.
 
Mukhadram stuggled to beat Main Sequence the time before the POW and that just puts me off.

I've backed The Fugue and Al Kazeem. DoW's presence gives us a huge angle to work with.
 
Mukhadram is reckoned by the OH to have found 14lbs of improvement in the POW, and the 15 times raced Miblish 11lb, neither of which stand close scrutiny.
Declaration Of War is a strange one, as he was said to be "all about speed" after the Queen Anne (still holds a Nunthorpe entry, ffs), yet is here contesting the stiffest 10f gp1 of the season, and I just don't believe he's a serious player.
With The Fugue, it's not just a question of how far she finished behind in the POW, but of the actual intent going into the race. JG made it clear she'd come on for the run, and - though she always been a hold-up horse - to sit 10l off a mediocre pace turning in at Ascot is not how she usually races, and it's dangerous to take the form at all literally imo. No surprise to see it turned on its head completely.
 
Al Kazeem will destroy this lot. Everyone keeps looking for reasons to take on this machine. Sandown's long straight and stiff finish is ideal. I expect him to race handy and Doyle will unleash him 3f out and make this a true test of stamina. Once he's had his way with this mob he'll finally get the respect he's due.

If he was trained by AOB or Stoute he'd be even money imo. I expect him to be 2/1 at some stage prior to the race, at which point, I will fill my boots.
 
Sea Pigeon said:
Al Kazeem will destroy this lot. Everyone keeps looking for reasons to take on this machine. Sandown's long straight and stiff finish is ideal. I expect him to race handy and Doyle will unleash him 3f out and make this a true test of stamina. Once he's had his way with this mob he'll finally get the respect he's due.

If he was trained by AOB or Stoute he'd be even money imo. I expect him to be 2/1 at some stage prior to the race, at which point, I will fill my boots.
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He'll be 2/1 tomorrow morning for sure. Looks a max bet to me.
 
Sea Pigeon said:
If he was trained by AOB or Stoute he'd be even money imo.
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I always think this is thrown around way too much. Roger Charlton has won 8 Group 1's. At a race of this level what % on price is a horse being trained by Roger Charlton or APOB really going to make? 1%? 2%? It cant be more than that.

Examples to back this up would be:

Declaration of War being taken on in the Lockinge
Leading Light, Camelot and Gale Force Ten being taken on Ascot

Bookmakers want to get EVERY horse in big races on a Saturday unless they have reason to believe the market will come to them otherwise they are basically turning away business. There is much more to bookmaking these days than ducking and laying ones.
 
SlimChance said:
I always think this is thrown around way too much. Roger Charlton has won 8 Group 1's. At a race of this level what % on price is a horse being trained by Roger Charlton or APOB really going to make? 1%? 2%? It cant be more than that.

Examples to back this up would be:

Declaration of War being taken on in the Lockinge
Leading Light, Camelot and Gale Force Ten being taken on Ascot

Bookmakers want to get EVERY horse in big races on a Saturday unless they have reason to believe the market will come to them otherwise they are basically turning away business. There is much more to bookmaking these days than ducking and laying ones.
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I know what you are saying Slim and I agree the Bookies are going after the every horse in these big Sat races, hence ante post bets are a waste of time, but AK was 3/1 pre the POW after serving Camelot his dinner in Ireland. Yet Camelot went off fav at Ascot? Why? It can't of been form. It was Camelot's connections/hype and mug money
 
Why does AOB run two here? I can't have Mars at all. This horse is a Dundalk maiden winner thats his lot. At this rate he's going to be the most "unlucky" horse in history. Yet he is 5/1 and the Haggas horse who will get the run of the race, till Al Kazeem spits him out is 8/1?
 
Sea Pigeon said:
I know what you are saying Slim and I agree the Bookies are going after the every horse in these big Sat races, hence ante post bets are a waste of time, but AK was 3/1 pre the POW after serving Camelot his dinner in Ireland. Yet Camelot went off fav at Ascot? Why? It can't of been form. It was Camelot's connections/hype and mug money
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I did think Camelot deserved to be favourite in Ascot but now I'm completely sold on AK. He's the real deal in my book. Funnily though a few compilers are mad to take him on. the Group races are pretty good for splitting opinion and that added in with the Saturday competitive madness its great for punters.
 
Sea Pigeon said:
Why does AOB run two here? I can't have Mars at all. This horse is a Dundalk maiden winner thats his lot. At this rate he's going to be the most "unlucky" horse in history. Yet he is 5/1 and the Haggas horse who will get the run of the race, till Al Kazeem spits him out is 8/1?
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In fairness to Mars he's still unexposed and the step up in trip is in his favour. I would certainly back him at 8/1!
 
SlimChance said:
I did think Camelot deserved to be favourite in Ascot but now I'm completely sold on AK. He's the real deal in my book. Funnily though a few compilers are mad to take him on. the Group races are pretty good for splitting opinion and that added in with the Saturday competitive madness its great for punters.
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He's very much the real deal. When he won the Gordon Richards over C&D when Charlton's were all needing the run, he was very strong in the market. (Form doesn't look too shabby now) and pissed up I said to my old man, that's a Group 1 horse and to my eternal dismay i bottled backing him in Ireland and was seething afterwards. Charlton's son was saying in the days after that when he did his final bit of work they could not see how he could be beaten there. He will be even better over 12f for sure and the only way he will be beaten tomorrow is if they go a stop start gallop but Doyle will be wise to it. Wheelbarrow at the ready..
 
The form student's will tell you that there is only a few pounds between a few of them, that the Fugue will come on for her run, Mars will be in the mix getting the allowance, etc etc etc. Our's is rock solid, uncomplicated, plently tactical speed, hard as nails and in the form of his life.
 
Combo of Falbrav and Mtoto I think with maybe more in common with the latter.
I cannot (yet) see Al Kazeem win a QEII by 5 lengths but the real deal he most certainly is!
IMO if Falbrav had a proper jockey thru 2003 we would be talking of him nearly in Frankellian tones.
 
I reckon I'm going to be all over Pastorius like a rash.

Al Kazeem has a couple of dodgy verdicts over Camelot to his name while Declaration Of War's Queen Anne doesn't amount to a lot and he'll struggle to improve on that run at this trip. I can see the O'Brien pair trying to manufacture a slow tactical race.

The Ganay is arguably the closest we have to proper Group form and there was plenty of support for Maxios at Ascot but he couldn't get close to Pastorius back home.
 
If he hits 2s then he's my choice. Agree with most of the above and he has something about him. Would he relish that battle to the line? You bet.

True what is said about Dow but ballydoyle always come out with that stuff don't they ? Wasn't Yeats dur to run in July cup or something ? On what he's done he's rubbish value at the price

In strict value terms the haggas horse is surely the best priced? But I don't like EW and hard to see him really beat the fav this time around isn't it

I'm there tomorrow. One of the best days of the year
 
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