The Craven Meeting

2mm of rain on course in the past 24 hours. Going has moved from 8.3 yesterday morning to 8.0 this morning (which is still Good). The scale goes from 1.0 Heavy to 15.0 Hard. Showers expected throughout the day which could turn it to Soft side of Good (i.e. a possible change to light green from green on the map).

So probably not as slow (going wise) as we might think (although I take on board the headwind yesterday which would have contributed to slower times rather than the actual going).

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=newmarket
 
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aye headwind would affect times..were a lot slower later though

can be a bugger to assess Newmarket without actually being there

if anyone goes today could they post if raining all afternoon or windy..would be a great assist.
 
That would be good. When anyone is actually stuck in a shower though they usually tend to over-react thinking it is much more rain than it really is. It's better to listen to what the jocks are saying after the first as to how the course is actually riding.
 
That goings a load of nonsense esentepe and nayarra one and two in the nell gwyn was a massive giveaway,totally outclassed but love soft ground.Every race was desperately slow,they shouldv'e run at least 2 seconds quicker in those 7f races if not three!!!
 
gigilo said:
That goings a load of nonsense esentepe and nayarra one and two in the nell gwyn was a massive giveaway,totally outclassed but love soft ground.Every race was desperately slow,they shouldv'e run at least 2 seconds quicker in those 7f races if not three!!!
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...did you not see the point about headwind rather than going? While it's possible that there's a little more give than the official going report the going is clearly nothing to worry about, being virtually in the middle of the scale. As far as I've seen the jockeys aren't saying it is soft. They are always the best judges of how it is riding. So the assumption that it is already soft is no doubt wrong.
 
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SteveM said:
...As far as I've seen the jockeys aren't saying it is soft. They are always the best judges of how it is riding. So the assumption that it is already soft is no doubt wrong.
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jockeys are usually the worst to ask Steve..by a long way..many days its reported that different jockeys can come up with a wide range of goings from the first race

a lot of jockey opinion depends on how their horse handled the conditions..a horse that moves well through soft could make a jockey believe the ground is good for instance

in the RP each day their opinions are usually shown in the course correspondent bit
 
if there is conflict with wind direction i usually do what G has done..look at what won + came 2nd in each race..you can usually tell what the ground is from horse preference
 
Trainers,jocks are the worst judges if the going is as stated they should be running under 1m24 seconds in the decent races over 7fs the nell gwyn was run in 1m27.60:lol:,absolutely nio chance!!
 
Forgotten Hero is a horse I have been closely watching as I have his half brother and thought his AW maiden win was visually impressive. He is put in off 92 although anything that has run since hasn't really franked the rating. I would imagine like his half siblings he would prefer top of the ground so that's a negative today but this may be his guineas and at 7/1 he's probably worth an ew bet. Win double with Bangalore Diamond at Tipperary to pay for a little holiday :cool:
 
EC1 said:
jockeys are usually the worst to ask Steve..by a long way..many days its reported that different jockeys can come up with a wide range of goings from the first race

a lot of jockey opinion depends on how their horse handled the conditions..a horse that moves well through soft could make a jockey believe the ground is good for instance

in the RP each day their opinions are usually shown in the course correspondent bit
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I think the jockeys are are good indication of how the ground is riding. Indeed it's one of the few things I listen to them about. The trick is sorting out whether they are being genuine or using the going as an excuse for their mount.
 
Jockeys are the worst judges as it will ride differently to each one - generally depending on how well the horse they're on board is travelling.

Times (providing the distances are accurate) combined with wind/pace analysis is a far better way of judging the going.

Martin
 
I backed Trumpet Major at 6/1 today, as this price reflected the view that he couldn't handle soft going on the basis that the going was better than some assume. He was top rated of those left in it (after the defection of Meehan's colt) and clearly it wasn't soft enough to stop him today despite giving them weight.
 
SteveM said:
I backed Trumpet Major at 6/1 today, as this price reflected the view that he couldn't handle soft going on the basis that the going was better than some assume. He was top rated of those left in it (after the defection of Meehan's colt) and clearly it wasn't soft enough to stop him today despite giving them weight.
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he was forecast at 6/1..so it were nowt to do with the going..ran 2nd in a listed race to Talwar on slow ground so hardly fair to say doesn't act on it. Maysun in the abernant has run all best races on slow ground

if you believe jockeys are the best indicator of the ground..then stick with it..i couldn't make a decision based on them that is for sure
 
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Taking only one horse forward from the meeting for the rest of the season, who are you choosing? I'll take Main Sequence thank you very much. Maintained his unbeaten record despite a very average ride and had plenty left at the finish. Another handicap or too, but could easily see him making into an ideal sort for the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot.
 
Two desperate days on the wrong ground for most,false form most of the races,the one you've picked proved itself on the ground and doesn't mind it quicker either.I#d stick woth that and ignore the rest!!;)
 
Irish Stamp said:
Times (providing the distances are accurate) combined with wind/pace analysis is a far better way of judging the going.

Martin
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To a degree, yes; but even then it needs to assume at least one of the races was run at optimum pace.
Deadly accurate for events like the Cheltenham Festival, where big competitive fields are the order of the day, but on a 'trials day' like yesterday, where almost everything is running with an eye to the future, hardly some thing you could hang your hat on.
As it stands, 6 of the 8 races yesterday were run within 3 secs of RP standard, and the quickest race of the day ( Maysun - 1.8 secs o/s) attracted the RP comment: "An unsatisfactory race, with the pace being very steady for the trip" which suggests the ground was no worse than good, (and probably not a lot worse on the previous day).
 
davidjohnson said:
Taking only one horse forward from the meeting for the rest of the season, who are you choosing? I'll take Main Sequence thank you very much. Maintained his unbeaten record despite a very average ride and had plenty left at the finish. Another handicap or too, but could easily see him making into an ideal sort for the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot.
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The Feilden form probably needs treating with caution, but I thought Jungle Beat shaped well having been held up off a steady pace and shuffled back as the gallop was quickening. Thought he did well to keep on nicely without being knocked about.

The bare form is probably pretty weak, but he just struck me as one who may improve considerably next time.
 
Big drifter pre-race too because of his demeanor and appearance in the paddock I believe, on edge and coltish, so as you suggest, could certainly step up on the bare form.
 
EC1 said:
he was forecast at 6/1..so it were nowt to do with the going...
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But isn't it obvious that fear of soft going was the reason for this? He was fully entitled to be favourite and at least half this price as a Group 2 winner, Guineas protagonist and top rated in the surviving field even allowing for the 3lb he was giving away.
 
SteveM said:
But isn't it obvious that fear of soft going was the reason for this? He was fully entitled to be favourite and at least half this price as a Group 2 winner, Guineas protagonist and top rated in the surviving field even allowing for the 3lb he was giving away.
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i don't see him at half the price Steve..and i don't see the going as Good either

we'll just have agree to disagree
 
SteveM said:
I backed Trumpet Major at 6/1 today, as this price reflected the view that he couldn't handle soft going on the basis that the going was better than some assume. He was top rated of those left in it (after the defection of Meehan's colt) and clearly it wasn't soft enough to stop him today despite giving them weight.
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I do think the market can often over compensate for factors like the ground at times and forgetting that they are just animals that can overcome certain specific factors, not as bad as draw biases though in markets. You'd go skint backing stalls one and two at Chester these days!!
 
EC1 said:
i don't see him at half the price Steve..and i don't see the going as Good either

we'll just have agree to disagree
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I wasn't saying it was Good. That was the official going on the morning of the race and I was allowing it to be on the soft side of good with subsequent rain. This wouldn't have been enough to worry TM though, as some late money for him also seemed to twig.

Without the fears about the ground (voiced also by Hannon) he would have probably been about 3/1 favourite given that he was previously a Group 2 winner and top rated.
 
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