The Dante

D

davids2009

At the Start
Joined
May 9, 2009
Messages
27
Completely biased view here fancying Sans Frontieres tomorrow having been backing him antepost for this and the derby since his last outing. His run behind Delegator,who did win comfortably, at Newmarket looks like good form for what was only his second start of his career. Stepping up another 2 furlongs is going to suit and I am feeling very excited about his chance tomorrow. I might get shot down for saying this, and made to look very silly at 2.45 tomorrow, but taking away the Racing Post Trophy form has he achieved that much to justify being such a short price in the market? Not convinced he has, and there seems to be a lot of horses in this tomorrow which could show any amount of potential. I'm sticking with Sans Frontieres, who is beautifully bred and has shown plenty in his two starts to make me think he is capable of winning this tomorrow. The 16/1 which was available at the weekend was far too big.

Any more thoughts on this race(I seem to have focused on two horses)?
 
Kinane seemed to have been booked for him some time ago so I guess that is positive but would think (and hope) there are some better prospects in the race. Really looking forward to it.

Welcome to the forum by the way!
 
At the prices i'm backing monitor closely again cant believe he is 25/1 compared to 10/1 about neeham. he has form that ties in with kite wood and crowded house over trips to short for him so im taking a flyer.
Think kite wood will disappoint due to the obvious. For the derby I would love to see CH do something special to really make it interesting as it could potentially turn into a classic with some of the horses potentially going to epsom
 
I'll have some sickness insurance on MC tomorrow but whether I punt Nehaam will depend on the price. I'm already on at fancy odds for the Derby so it would be nice to see him win and shorten up a fair bit.

Crowded House's RPT win reads very well indeed, doesn't it? And it's backed up by a good time. However, there has to be a chance he won't be fully wound up tomorrow as they surely don't want to leave Epsom behind at York.

Redwood also put up a smart time at Newmarket and I can see that one being on the premises too.

Smashing race.
 
"Crowded House's RPT win reads very well indeed, doesn't it?"

Not so sure, DO.

There isn;t a lot of evidence, but of the horses that finished behind him that day only Set Sail with a two length fourth to the French Guineas winner has done anything to frank the form.
 
According to the RP, Kite Wood was one of the horses not "travelled" to Dubai after his purchase this winter. It could be that by doing so, they haven't screwed him up like their prospects from previous years.
 
Colin Phillips said:
"Crowded House's RPT win reads very well indeed, doesn't it?"

Not so sure, DO.

There isn;t a lot of evidence, but of the horses that finished behind him that day only Set Sail with a two length fourth to the French Guineas winner has done anything to frank the form.
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CH won the RPT in a very fast time by 3½l from a horse at the top of its form and officially rated 112. Set Sail took a 16lbs beating from the winner. Silver Frost only gave SS a 5lbs beating. Arguably, CH is 11lbs superior to a French Guineas winner and, on a line through Weald Park, 7lbs superior to Nehaam. Don't you believe that amounts to reading well, Colin?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
CH won the RPT in a very fast time by 3½l from a horse at the top of its form and officially rated 112. Set Sail took a 16lbs beating from the winner. Silver Frost only gave SS a 5lbs beating. Arguably, CH is 11lbs superior to a French Guineas winner. Don't you believe that amounts to reading well, Colin?
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I think a direct link between the Racing Post Trophy and a French Guineas Trial is very dodgy ground.

Crowded House looked a different horse in the Racing Post to the one the one that stayed on at pretty much one pace at Newmarket the time before. Its surely more likely that the pace of the race flattered him somewhat at Doncaster rather than he suddenly developed into something completely different.

For me Crowded House is a better horse than Ibn Kaldun (a previous RPT winner) but the similarity between that pair and another previous winner like American Post is that in each of their Racing Post Trophy they were racing on a decent ground against horses that probably needed 10 furlongs and thus hopelessly out paced them and in the process looking much better than they actually are.
 
I'll take the third view - the fact that the second and third haven't been seen out yet since leaves the form of the race up in the air.
 
I'm really undecided about this race. I think Crowded House is a great horse, although I also really like Kite Wood. Too tight to call, so I'll take Chris's early Derby tip and have a penny or two on Native Ruler e/w, especially judging by the fact that there's likely to be a bit of rain overnight in York.
 
I think the race is crying out for a reverse forecast, and have reservations about Kite Wood and the Ballydoyle challenge. English punters might regard the Dante as 'the' Derby trial, but I'm far from convinced Aiden O'Brien does. You don't need to be a genius to see that his better 3yo's use the Derrinstown.

Fame & Glory, Washington Irving, Archipenko, Dylan Thomas, Grand Central, Yeats, Brain Boru, The Great Gatsby, High Chapperral, Galileo and Bach;

make better company than;

Frozen Fire, (2nd)
no runner
Septimus (he might have won but the less said about his Derby effort the better:whistle:)
Albert Hall (5th)
Moscow Ballet (6th)
No runner
No runner
No runner
Royal Kingdom (5th)
No runner

In fact I'm not entirely sure that in recent years he hasn't been more inclined to use Chester ahead of York (on the recommendation of Fallon if we're to believe things)

That being so, I can't make a case against Crowded House and have him about 3L's faster than Ibn Khaldun on their respectiev RPT's. I hold a rating for Redwood from the Fielden that suggests he's there on merit and shouldn't be too far away, and know just how confident Chris remains that Native Ruler is the Derby winner (he's not even talking in terms of the Dante). O'Briens record is hardly brilliant by his standards, as Septimus only won a particularly poor renewal, and this one looks particularly hot. 1 win 1 place and 3 unplaced?
 
As someone mentioned, Kite Wood is being well supported and Ladbrokes 13/2 may not last long tomorrow.

Few others being nibbled at for tomorrows contests:

1.40
Hamish McGonagall 9/1
Sonny Red 12/1
Everymanforhimself 15/2

3.10
Mias Boy 7/1
Moynahan 14/1.
 
It was raining here in York when I hit the hay last night. Not loads just steady and woke up a couple of times to find it raining. Light drizzle this am, stopped now.

I don't know if they watered last night, they were on about having a look after racing and deciding then. Hope they did not after last nights rain but tough call for W. Derby I suppose.
 
Racing Post staff7.20AM 14 MAY 2009
THE official going at York has been changed from good to firm to good, good to firm in places after 8mm of rain on Wednesday night ahead of day two of the 2009 Maymeeting.
Clerk of the course William Derby said he decided not to water after the rain fell on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, adding that the forecast was for further light rain throughout the afternoon, which features the return of Racing Post Trophy winner Crowded House in the Totesport.com Dante Stakes at 2.40pm.

He said at 7:20am: "The going is now good, good to firm in places after 8mm of rain overnight and we did not put any water on the course.

"There are patchy showers around today although it is not raining at the moment, just grey skies.
"The track has taken the water well."
 
The jar out the ground has brought music to my ears. I will be having a decent bet on Native Ruler today taking the 28s and 25s available. He is tool and continues to impress at home. He is fit, getting his ground slowly and more importantly he will get the gallop he needs today. Next step Epsom, before he can return to Newmarket head held high being the 3rd Classic winner of his family.
 
Thought I'd take a bit of the 7/4 Paddy Power were offering on Crowded House this morning... I'm not especially confident though.

Cecil's horse could well run a blinder.
 
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I have backed Freemantle for the Derby at big prices but admit it will need a huge performance to dislodge Fame And Glory as Ballydoyles number 1. The reports have been extremely positive about him all spring though so I live in hope.
 
Flame said:
The jar out the ground has brought music to my ears. I will be having a decent bet on Native Ruler today taking the 28s and 25s available. He is tool and continues to impress at home. He is fit, getting his ground slowly and more importantly he will get the gallop he needs today. Next step Epsom, before he can return to Newmarket head held high being the 3rd Classic winner of his family.
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It will not surprise me if he wins the Dante, but will be a surprise if he wins the Derby. Still, I've been surprised a few times in my life! :lol: Nice prices anyway, tempting .....
 
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