The Derby

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gus

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The decision on whether Churchill runs will obviously have a huge impact on the Derby market but it could be some time before an announcement is made.

After Churchill, the Ballydoyle colt most prominent in the betting is Cliffs Of Moher who was available at 40/1 after his hugely impressive maiden win in a very fast time from Orderofthegarter at Leopardstown last backend. The runner-up has strongly franked the form since and Cliffs Of Moher is now a best-priced 12/1 and that only in a couple of places. He hasn't been seen this spring but he is declared at the 5-day stage for Friday's Dee Stakes at Chester. His stamina for Epsom isn't guaranteed: like Churchill, he's by Galileo out of a 5f winner. There are some middle distance influences on the dam's side - the second dam was placed in the Prix de Diane - but you couldn't be dogmatic about him staying. A chance worth taking at 40s looks a lot less attractive at about a quarter of those odds but if he does stay he has a huge chance, make no mistake.

Cracksman is still available at 10/1 for the Derby but only with Ladbrokes. Permian gave a boost to his form with a decisive win at Newmarket yesterday and Cracksman's price for Epsom was cut across the board. Although on pedigree he isn't certain to get the trip his style of racing suggests strongly that he will and Gosden and Dettori both seem totally confident about it. The trainer has said he will run in another trial and that seems certain now to be the Dante. As was the case with Cliffs Of Moher, Cracksman's maiden win last season was achieved in an outstanding time so, having won a tactical race last time, he's shown himself to be versatile in terms of how the race is run and he clearly handles the Epsom track. I think he'll win at York and shorten up for the Derby. I'd already backed him several times ante-post and I've topped up this morning.
 
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What Derby market are you looking at? Capri (16/1) and Yucatan (14/1) run today in the Derrinstown and they don't get a mention.
 
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SlimChance said:
I'm going to take a wild stab here that you've backed Cliffs Of Moher and this is a fluff piece to point it out.
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I have. Is it a problem? I posted about his outstanding time last October when that 40/1 was available. EC responded in similar terms.

I'm trying to generate debate about the Derby. It's pretty quiet on here during the Flat season. Someone has to do it.
 
Did you see Willoughby's piece on RUK about Cracksman's win at Epsom gut? He's of the opinion that his long stride means he will be better on a flatter track and therefore isn't a Derby type.
 
Euronymous said:
Did you see Willoughby's piece on RUK about Cracksman's win at Epsom gut? He's of the opinion that his long stride means he will be better on a flatter track and therefore isn't a Derby type.
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Gut? You must have seen a photo of me...

I did see that Willoughby analysis. I like the bloke but he's wrong as often as he's right. I take the view that what got Cracksman in trouble was a combination of Franny Norton's canny ride and the false early pace. A stronger pace in the Derby plus an extra two furlongs should be right up his street. I don't go much on the opinions of trainers but I make an exception for Gosden and he's expressed no reservations about the track. I also take encouragement from Prufrock's comments about the sectionals last week.
 
I've been in touch with the oracle (SteveM) and am happy to take on board his considered opinion that Churchill will be fine at 12f although possibly shorter [10f] might be where he's most effective.

I haven't done any figures yet but I suspect he's a 125+ Guineas winner probably able to run to that kind of figure at Epsom, in which case it would take an above average performance to beat him.
 
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gus said:
I have. Is it a problem? I posted about his outstanding time last October when that 40/1 was available. EC responded in similar terms.

I'm trying to generate debate about the Derby. It's pretty quiet on here during the Flat season. Someone has to do it.
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There was ample Derby discussion on the Guineas thread. Opening a new thread to aftertime a 40/1 voucher seemed needless.
 
Now we have the same discussion across two threads and it's all over the place.
 
fonz said:
But plenty of people notice gus's, You were out of order there.
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For pointing out a contrived aftertiming thread? That's a matter of opinion. If you're going to start a thread on the Derby an obvious starting point would be to mention the Derrinstown! One of the three Ballydoyle runners was well backed during the week and how he and the other two ran has an obvious knock on effect to Churchill's target. But no, I hurt someone's feeling my pointing this out so let's all hate on me instead.
 
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Gus said:
His stamina for Epsom isn't guaranteed, like Churchill he's by Galileo out of a 5f winner
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Cliffs Of Moher is not quite a million miles from being like Churchill, the obvious...they share the same sire, but in breeding and dosage terms; for two horse’s that share the same father they couldn’t be any further apart. Cliffs Of Moher may be by Galileo out of a 5f winner....but just because his Dam (Wave) won over 5f, it doesn’t make her a sprinter. The 5f race in which Wave won had 3 colts and 11 maiden fillies in it, all of the fillies remained maidens, if only in the running sense. You couldn’t put up much of an argument if I was to tell you it was a dire race, filled with horses running over the wrong trip. Cliffs of Moher has far more stamina in his pedigree; of the 3 non point scoring Chef’S on the Dam side, one won the Derby, one sired a winner and the other sired the Dam of a winner.

Churchill’s Dam Meow on the other hand, has an Infinity Index scoring great great grand sire (Indian Ridge) running direct to her tail end line. Indian Ridge was an exceptional sprinter who became an Intermediate Chef, siring horse’s that won group races over a range of distances; which doesn’t necessarily mean it will hold back on the stamina inheritance, a lot of good stamina pedigree’s have a sprint niche. Churchill’s overall Dosage point score of 36 is still exceptionally high when you consider that there’s 8 non Chef’s (no points) out of the 15 used in its calculation. There’s only 3 Chef’s from the 7 sires on the Dam’s side of the pedigree and they are all gr’t gr’t, which leaves the overall dosage score’s looking very much watered, and much harder to gauge than it otherwise would by simply looking at the immediate parent’s (sire’s).

Personally I think, if they crossed paths in the Derby, Cliffs of Moher would win if it was a real test going wise. If the ground was fast I think it would be a lot closer and I would probably be one of THE FEW who think Churchill would be victorious.
 
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