The Dewhurst

"By the end of the year, the figures may look different," Tester said. "There's going to be a lot of debate about Dream Ahead, about the fact that he won by nine lengths on soft ground, and whether it's right to have him ahead of Frankel or whether we call them the same horse."It is likely to depend on where we put the Royal Lodge Stakes. I think there's a good chance that we will end up with a higher rating for Frankel, because the placed horses from the Royal Lodge [Klammer and Treasure Beach] will come out and boost the form."
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If they let the form down wll he do the opposite then?
 
Tester has seriously overrated Dream Ahead on a race run in very soft ground and now doesn't know how to stop himself looking an eejit.
 
You guys know a lot more about this than I do.

On the face of it, 106 sounds about right for that 7f race, assuming you are talking OR scale. I didn't think it was decent G2 standard.

If that makes Frankel 128 on that scale, what does that make Glor na Mara? 114?
 
The runners were plodding at the end of the Challenge Stakes - winner posted a final 2f speed of ~ 95.7% of its overall speed - so it is no surprise the time for that race was poor. Not quite sure why it was SO poor and why they were plodding SO much, but there you go.
 
Dream Ahead 16.5 and Saamidd 27 for the Guineas - a slight overreaction? Roderic looks big at 20. Regardless, it is shaping up into a very good each way race for ante post purposes.
 
I could not back Dream Ahead or Saamidd at any price given the performances on Saturday. Throw in the ground and stamina doubts for Dream Ahead and the ability of Godolphin to have one ready for the Guineas these days and you are surely much better off waiting to see how the spring goes (even if it does result in a somewhat smaller price). Saamdd's attitude and head carraige is a worry for me too.
 
I should have added I'm not backing either but think they are a little overpriced. Roderic a good trading proposition as he'll certainly be shorter before the Guineas comes around.
 
gus said:
106. It looked a truly-run race but the figure is low.

Two-year-olds get 19lbs from three-year-olds over 7f at this time of year on the wfa scale I use.
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I'll have to check later what i got for the first race Gus..it wasn't that low..it was a truly run G2 with some decent animals
 
EC1 said:
I'll have to check later what i got for the first race Gus..it wasn't that low..it was a truly run G2 with some decent animals
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no i don't-its on speed fig thread

i got 116 for Red Clubs..which is still less than OHR:)

can't see how that race is slow..it was a decent run race..also that rating fits with the card

Frankel is a bare 121 without wfa on my figs..2 higher than Teofilo..i haven't ever given that high a figure for a 2yo..using my beyer type figs anyway

no point adding wfa imo as each horse is different re development..using bare fig is exactly representaive of their current ability..if Frankel only improves another 10lb he will be hard to beat next year..with average improvement..a monster
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
The runners were plodding at the end of the Challenge Stakes - winner posted a final 2f speed of ~ 95.7% of its overall speed - so it is no surprise the time for that race was poor. Not quite sure why it was SO poor and why they were plodding SO much, but there you go.
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but surely at Newmarket..its not possible to run 100% in a true run race anyway over the last 2 furlong the ...last 2f would be expected to be slower due to the last furlong being uphill..in a true run race on good ground you would be looking at 12.5 -13.00 sec.. last furlong time for instance

the challenge stakes isn't a problem time at all..its a great marker for the dewhurst

in fact ..if the challenge stakes is a slow time then the ground would time at Good..which it clearly wasn't

on good to soft..Twice Over has already run a very slow figure...if the Challenge Stakes is only a 106 race..then twice over has run 36lbs below par..very hard to beleive..its slow enough at 26lbs under par.

I would love to see if any other speed figure maker had the challenge stakes 15lbs slow..i had it 4 slow and that still gives Frankel a bare 121 figure..because it would have to be Good ground to give it that figure..does anyone think it was Good ground?..i know i certainly don't
 
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EC1 said:
on good to soft..Twice Over has already run a very slow figure...if the Challenge Stakes is only a 106 race..then twice over has run 36lbs below par..very hard to beleive..its slow enough at 26lbs under par.
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Would the Champion not qualify as one of those races you would throw out as a "dawdle", EC1?

Without having recourse to any figures, they looked to go a very slow gallop for a Group 1 to the naked eye.
 
trackside528 said:
Would the Champion not qualify as one of those races you would throw out as a "dawdle", EC1?

Without having recourse to any figures, they looked to go a very slow gallop for a Group 1 to the naked eye.
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yes- 26lbs slow

like i said..if anyone only rates Red Jazz at 106..then they must have the ground timed at Good...which I doubt anyone would agree with

its not really about how slow the champion was..and 26 is slow..to make RJ only equal 106 would make it 36 slow...getting silly really

in fact if RJ is 106..then every race is 10lb slow...but that automatically means the going allowance was good as said

i'd love to see some calculations to show that the challenge was 15 slow..and to show a going allowance with it.

very few people want to reveal how they get figures from a specific meeting..hence only myself contributes to the speed figure thread in the main

i doubt very few would think the ground was good at Newmarket..i would also doubt that anyone who does speed figures doesn't have frankel as the top figure they have seen for a 2yo
 
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EC1 said:
very few people want to reveal how they get figures from a specific meeting..hence only myself contributes to the speed figure thread in the main
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Rightly so imo, people spend hours a week on them and I think giving the methodology away on public forums defeats the purpose to some extent.

Publish your findings for sure, but giving away the methodology seems silly to me. Others could easily do it themselves if they picked up a couple of books.
 
to demonstarte what i mean

if RJ is only a 106 speed figure..then that is saying that he could have run 14lbs faster if the race had been truly run..which is about a second

he ran it in 86.04...so to only be rated 106 his possible time would be 85.04

the course record on fast ground with a draft at back of winner is only 82.24

85.04 is a clear decent ground time..it wasn't possible to run a time that quickly on that ground

hence he has run a decent time on slow ground..not a slow time on good ground
 
Gamla Stan said:
Rightly so imo, people spend hours a week on them and I think giving the methodology away on public forums defeats the purpose to some extent.

Publish your findings for sure, but giving away the methodology seems silly to me. Others could easily do it themselves if they picked up a couple of books.
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which sort of dilutes the point of a forum to me though

you get..

oh i think so and so will run well..
why is that then?
oh i can't tell you that as its my secret

oh i think that ran a fast time
how come?
oh i can't tell you its my secret

so you just get a shallow exchange of virtually nowt

we have had this discussion on other boards through the years

here is how it goes.

.you could put up a cast iron money making system on an open forum..and the average punter would still not win..or stick to it..even though it guarantees him money


you could highlight a brand new way of rating horses..that beats the odds...and still the average punter would be to idle to put the work in

so at the end of the day putting stuff on an open forum actually does bugger all to spoil anything

its a non argument for me

i personally don't want anyone's method..but when someone is suggesting it was good ground at a track when it clearly wasn't..i don't think its much to ask how that conclusion was reached

but..if its top secret..then i'll belive my figures and others can believe theirs

but at end of day..the actual discussion is just pretty vacuous without meat on bone

its not that important in the great scheme of things is it?
 
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Fair enough, I just think most people (myself included) don't spend hours (easily in double figures) a week to calculate speed ratings which is profitable for many people to then give the methodology away in public for nothing.

I've published my ratings and mentioned the authors I've read to develop my methods but I wouldn't go any further myself, all personal opinion.

It's hard enough to get bets on nowadays without eluding to how you're picking the horses you're backing to every man and his dog.
 
I agree with that. very very hard to keep a betting account open, theere is a cull culture amongst many traders it seems.
 
Will said:
I agree with that. very very hard to keep a betting account open, theere is a cull culture amongst many traders it seems.
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Probably something for another thread, but I can see both sides as I play both sides on a daily basis. I think some firms have it more right than others myself, if you're simply betting horses at 16s that go off 7s etc, EW against odds on shots and betting in 16 runner handicaps, you can have no complaints if you get closed imo. The firms are there to make money at the end of the day.

However, some firms have just gone barmy, Bet 365 close you if you win off 6 or 7 bets on top class racing. How they can make a trading decision of a small spread of business is baffling.
 
Another forum has a complete section on speed figures going into detail about how they are calculated..a guy called SPOOK posts there

it makes a refreshing read to such as myself

no discussion of methods to me = heart and soul of messageboard gone

what you are left with is..ooh i think this will win..that will win

basically a Betfair forum with A levels
 
I know of the forum, Spook posted on here under a different guise I believe.

I just don't know how anyone can give such hard work away for free when it could easily detrimentally affect them financially.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I know of the forum, Spook posted on here under a different guise I believe.

I just don't know how anyone can give such hard work away for free when it could easily detrimentally affect them financially.
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because it doesn't detriment them financially..99% of punters can't be arsed with doing proper analysis..they don't have the patience for one.

If Spook put up 20 straight winners from his ratings..it wouldn't encourage anyone to apply themselves..maybe one or two out of thousands

its a complete fallacy that posting on messageboards damages the method

the whole nature of gambling to the masses..is just that..gambling..they don't want to work at it generally

its relaxation to most people..thats all..not a way of making a living

..making speed figures..teaching yourself how to read form..its all geekery to the masses
 
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