The Festival Handicaps 2019

Firstly I don't know who's written this and the article itself is a year old but I think the concept is probably 10 years old. I remember 2 completely separate guys drawing similar conclusions a number of years ago. One touting the idea that it was getting harder and harder to sneak in plot jobs because complete and utter handbrake jobs weren't making the cut anymore. The other concluding lines along the class horses at the top were now starting to be favoured as weights got condensed.

For me I don't really think that information benefits a punter like myself who pays as close to zero attention to trends and stats as any punter could possibly take as I just think in general they are minging ! The great thing about things like this as as soon as an article like that sways a host of punters in one direction the value will be found in the other. Punters I've found in the main like people flock to an idea, the more and more you see the media pundits all start saying the same stuff. You get a punter like Simon Rowlands who to my mind is one of the most knowledgeable in the game, he used to talk speed figures, then everybody caught up, then he talked sectionals, everybody caught up in a few years time the media pundits will all be talking about a horses cadence and Simon Rowlands will be another stride ahead. Guys like him and the likes of Beyer and Mordin before him and there are plenty others of course plenty who can be innovators rather than regurgitators are the people worth listening to not to say they are always right of course but at least they are original.
 
Ive not gone through the rest of the entries yet as I am in work, was hoping to see Ch'tbello in the County and he has an entry. Ill dilute the rest of the race when I have time on Monday.
 
Kapcorse a big fancy of mine for the Pertemps. He's probably right on the cusp of getting in off 136 based on the last few years, but he's a proper horse and there's already juice in his hurdle mark compared to his mark over fences. . He needs to qualify first, but is in at Chepstow this weekend and is guaranteed a run.

He's 141 over fences and that's probably lenient given the ease in which he dispatched a decent field at Newbury, I'd say you could make a solid argument he's more of a 145 and that's not taking into account any further progression. No other entries bar the potato race which may be a clue in its own right.
 
On another note, cant seem to find a price for Ch'tbello in the county. Is it me being thick or do I need to request it?
 
I'm just happy to see Good Man Pat entered into the Close Bros but not the Ultima. Just have to hope he doesn't blow his mark in the Pendil now.

Campeador is entered in the novice handicap too (his only entry at the meeting) and he's of interest but I'm no longer sure whether he's as fairly treated as I think - and a winner in waiting of a big race - or whether he's become a cliff horse for me. His jumping has left a lot to be desired at times, both over hurdles and fences but if he could bring his best hurdles form to this race and stand up then he'd take some stopping and 20/1 NRNB with Skybet seems like a decent bet.
 
wilsonl said:
I'm just happy to see Good Man Pat entered into the Close Bros but not the Ultima. Just have to hope he doesn't blow his mark in the Pendil now.

Campeador is entered in the novice handicap too (his only entry at the meeting) and he's of interest but I'm no longer sure whether he's as fairly treated as I think - and a winner in waiting of a big race - or whether he's become a cliff horse for me. His jumping has left a lot to be desired at times, both over hurdles and fences but if he could bring his best hurdles form to this race and stand up then he'd take some stopping and 20/1 NRNB with Skybet seems like a decent bet.
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That's going to be an 'interesting' race I imagine if you've got one targeted at the novice handicap. Let Bags Groove roll out in front and try your best not to be in contention without picking up a ban if you're on Secret Investor or Capeland and be close enough to him without winning if you're below 140 to make sure you get in.
 
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Probably in view of the entries being published today, I imagine the various markets will be changing. The handicaps have not been visible on Oddschecker for a while now but I notice the Ultima is now on site again but no idea how much the odds have changed. May be worth your while keeping your eyes open tonight.

Don't bet, only use it for ther AP competition so hope this isn't complete b*ll*cks. :)
 
Bonjers said:
That's going to be an 'interesting' race I imagine if you've got one targeted at the novice handicap. Let Bags Groove roll out in front and try your best not to be in contention without picking up a ban if you're on Secret Investor or Capeland and be close enough to him without winning if you're below 140 to make sure you get in.
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If Bags Groove is still 3/1 after decs (unlikely) I’ll be lumping on as he’s just about the only one who can’t ruin his mark. I’ve been bigging Good Man Pat up for ages and everything has gone to plan so far so just need a repeat of his run behind Mister Dino and I’m happy
 
wilsonl said:
If Bags Groove is still 3/1 after decs (unlikely) I’ll be lumping on as he’s just about the only one who can’t ruin his mark. I’ve been bigging Good Man Pat up for ages and everything has gone to plan so far so just need a repeat of his run behind Mister Dino and I’m happy
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Agreed. May pile in in any case as he'll be odds on otherwise I imagine.
 
wilsonl said:
If Bags Groove is still 3/1 after decs (unlikely) I’ll be lumping on as he’s just about the only one who can’t ruin his mark. I’ve been bigging Good Man Pat up for ages and everything has gone to plan so far so just need a repeat of his run behind Mister Dino and I’m happy
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I've been keeping a close eye too Lee.

Would a run 16 days before his Festival target not bother you? I can't imagine it would have been the plan to leave it this late to get his third run in. If he has an easy race there's also a chance he gets dropped a pound or two and doesn't get in, and there's a small chance 139 might not be enough anyway. And if he doesn't have an easy race then any Festival plans could be over this weekend anyway.

I've been hovering over the button for ages and now I can't bring myself to press it. I think because of his late start, the rush to get his mark, and that the Close Brothers will be his fourth race in nine weeks, the moment has passed for me.
 
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Not been following the thread closely so far but the 3/1 price caught my attention. Are we seriously discussing taking 3/1 now about a festival handicap?

It will be some time, probably the 5-day dec stage, before I think seriously about the handicaps but I did take 16/1 Glen Rocco for the Ultima a month or so back.
 
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Maruco said:
I've been keeping a close eye too Lee.

Would a run 16 days before his Festival target not bother you? I can't imagine it would have been the plan to leave it this late to get his third run in. If he has an easy race there's also a chance he gets dropped a pound or two and doesn't get in, and there's a small chance 139 might not be enough anyway. And if he doesn't have an easy race then any Festival plans could be over this weekend anyway.

I've been hovering over the button for ages and now I can't bring myself to press it. I think because of his late start, the rush to get his mark, and that the Close Brothers will be his fourth race in nine weeks, the moment has passed for me.
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They're fair concerns of course Paul but if the Close Bros is the target, and as the JLT seems a step too far I expect it is (Plumpton bonus etc.), then I wouldn't expect him to be 100% ready tomorrow or trying too hard. The way I see it is everything needs to go to plan for him to be able to run in the handicap, as you say, so the 20/1 NRNB with 888 was/is just too tempting.

Dessie - No, the 3/1 is about Bags Groove winning the Pendil tomorrow, in a race where it's questionable how hard the others will be trying given that he's rated 152 and the rest, while currently considerably lower, are entered in the Close Bros which has a ceiling of 145 so wouldn't want to get too close to Bags Groove.
 
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wilsonl said:
Dessie - No, the 3/1 is about Bags Groove winning the Pendil tomorrow, in a race where it's questionable how hard the others will be trying given that he's rated 152 and the rest, while currently considerably lower, are entered in the Close Bros which has a ceiling of 145 so wouldn't want to get too close to Bags Groove.
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Okaydokay. That does make 3/1 look tempting but I haven't started doing the form for tomorrow yet. (Don't know if I'll even get round to it at all.)
 
Just the four declared for the Pendil;

Bags Groove (phew) OR 153
Good Man Pat OR 139
Silent Investor OR 145
Castafiore OR 139

Could be a case of "please, after you...". Bags Groove and Silent Investor fighting out the finish to push Silent Investor above the limit for the Close Bros (in which case he holds a JLT entry too) and Good Man Pat a quietly ridden 10 lengths back in third will do me nicely.
 
Followed you in with Bags Groove so happy to see him among the 4. Hopefully will run better than in the Feltham at this grade


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wilsonl said:
Just the four declared for the Pendil;

Bags Groove (phew) OR 153
Good Man Pat OR 139
Silent Investor OR 145
Castafiore OR 139

Could be a case of "please, after you...". Bags Groove and Silent Investor fighting out the finish to push Silent Investor above the limit for the Close Bros (in which case he holds a JLT entry too) and Good Man Pat a quietly ridden 10 lengths back in third will do me nicely.
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I'm not convinced he'll get in off 139 if last year is anything to go by. He's going to need to show an improvement to guarantee a start, but not too much improvement. He's 13th of the UK contingent as it stands. Very tricky.
 
Bonjers said:
Kapcorse a big fancy of mine for the Pertemps. He's probably right on the cusp of getting in off 136 based on the last few years, but he's a proper horse and there's already juice in his hurdle mark compared to his mark over fences. . He needs to qualify first, but is in at Chepstow this weekend and is guaranteed a run.

He's 141 over fences and that's probably lenient given the ease in which he dispatched a decent field at Newbury, I'd say you could make a solid argument he's more of a 145 and that's not taking into account any further progression. No other entries bar the potato race which may be a clue in its own right.
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Failed to qualify today. Excellent start!
 
Dandridge. Good second today. In the Johnny Henderson. Switched stables and wind op. Just saying.
 
When are the weights out again? Solomon Grey entered at Taunton later this week.
 
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