The Fighting Fifth

Tanlic said:
Quite frankly it's nuts to use stats they only apply to the past and have no bearing whatsoever on the individual horse. Unless of course you believe in the boogie man ;)
Click to expand...

i did clear up my point that its FF and CH in the same season

if you don't use stats that only apply to the past then you are saying that an individual horse's form..that is also based on past stats..ie its form ...also has no bearing on the future

which means we must just get a pin out then?

i do believe that certain courses play to certain horse's strengths..and i'll use ROR as a classic example of a horse that wasn't suited to the speedy Xmas hurdle that completely reversed the from with the winner Binocular when faced with a stamina test at Cheltenham

if you don't think thats relevant then you are seriously reducing how you can differentiate between horses

some races are not keys to others..imo..due to many things already mentioned
 
Last edited:
Tanlic did say stats that have no bearing on the individual horse - which the form does.

The form is also more likely to inform you whether the "stat" about XH and FF winners not winning the CH is likely to apply to an individual than the bare stat is.

And this comes from a man whose bets at the festival are entirely based on stats. Having won the XH or FF would not stop me having a bet on a horse in the CH.
 
simmo said:
Tanlic did say stats that have no bearing on the individual horse - which the form does.

The form is also more likely to inform you whether the "stat" about XH and FF winners not winning the CH is likely to apply to an individual than the bare stat is.

And this comes from a man whose bets at the festival are entirely based on stats. Having won the XH or FF would not stop me having a bet on a horse in the CH.
Click to expand...

i wouldn't expect it to put people off having a bet..i just would hope they don't want to win that often if they do..which the past evidence suggests is what will happen if you bacj teh winner of either the FF or Xmas hurdle in teh CH. The last 40 years tells you that

we are talking more here about course similarity than anything else i think...why would a horse that wins on a right hand flat track be expected to do the same on a lefthand undulating one with a testing finish?

it all depends on if people believe that many horses have preferences for certain types of courses...i think they do..others ignore it..some ignore everything out there and just expect a horse to be a 170 or whatever wherever they run..imo thats not always the case

the proof will be in the pudding again come next March;)
 
simmo said:
Tanlic did say stats that have no bearing on the individual horse - which the form does.
Click to expand...


but form itself is open to interpretation and is very often turned upside down.....i'll guess that someone just using stats would get things wrong no less than somemone reading form over a period of time

many horse's have very little form to make any truly accurate assessment..like much of racing its % call......for example...i think this horse likes soft ground..all best form is on that surface.....then it goes out and wins on fast ..% call gets it wrong..same as stats get it wrong.

One difference between getting it wrong with stats is that the first time one gets broken every bugger and their mother are saying.....ooh the stats boys got it wrong..stats are sh1t ...but when a form reader gets it wrong about a horse's going/distance preference ..form reading isn't slammed in the same way.

i don't see how someone can think reading a formline is so superior to someone using stats tbh

i use both depending on mood tbh
 
just to clear any confusion..these are the FF winners who went on to win the CH in the same season since 1969

Comedy Of Errors... FF 1973/CH 1974
Night Nurse...75/76
Kribensis 89/90
Punjabi 08/09

4 in 43 years
 
I understand both points of view and I do think the traditional small fields really don't help any stat.

However, if I was the owner of any of the 2nd season hurdlers, I would certainly be avoiding the race, even though McCain is on a three timer.

The Ascot race over further certainly looks a better prep race.

As mentioned before, Nicholl's must have a reason for ignoring the race.
 
EC1 said:
just to clear any confusion..these are the FF winners who went on to win the CH in the same season since 1969

Comedy Of Errors... FF 1973/CH 1974
Night Nurse...75/76
Kribensis 89/90
Punjabi 08/09

4 in 43 years
Click to expand...

whats the level stakes profit on that? :D
 
doomster said:
It used to be known as the Coral hurdle, which is run this weekend.

Overturn won it last year.
Click to expand...

well its certainly more like a test that fits the CH..Hardy won it twice after he won the CH

when the CH becomes a test like last year the stamina horses are favoured..the first two last year being a prime example

I think the Kempton race is a quick nip round and lets see who has got speed to pass horses on a flat track where they are rarely stopping after the 2nd last..something that the CH doesn't normally resemble too often..yes its not always a strong pace test but a lot of CH's are more searching pace than not imo

The CH has caught a few flat track bullies out in its time
 
Last edited:
doomster said:
I understand both points of view and I do think the traditional small fields really don't help any stat.

However, if I was the owner of any of the 2nd season hurdlers, I would certainly be avoiding the race, even though McCain is on a three timer.

The Ascot race over further certainly looks a better prep race.

As mentioned before, Nicholl's must have a reason for ignoring the race.
Click to expand...

PN probably ignores it as it's a 13k race run at the other end of the country; Donald McCain not so.
 
PN probably ignores it as it's a 13k race run at the other end of the country; Donald McCain not so.
Click to expand...

Last years winner picked up 58k, a week after winning the Ascot race for 51K.

Not sure what race is worth 13k.

I also think prize money is a secondary factor when placing these horses for many owners.
 
Last edited:
My mistake, Doomster (don't know what I was thinking :o), but the distance does matter (as does prize money, but that's a discussion for another day).
 
The purses available for the Morgiana, Hattons Grace and Istabraq Hurdles (and by that I mean logical preps and/or targets) mean that the Irish contingent have no need or reason to travel east to Newcastle or Kempton. Obviously there are notable exceptions such as Barkchibald, but generally a lack of top-class Irish raiders dilutes the strength of many UK Champion Hurdle trials.

To that extent, I agree with EC1.....but equally, I'm not sure it's hugely relevant either. Don't the stats show that the best Champion Hurdle trials are the previous year's race and the previous year's Supreme anyway? If true, doesn't that render the isolation of the FF & XH as 'bad pointer races' a bit tunnel-visioned? Because, by default, all trial races must be pretty-much of a muchness?
 
i highlighted these two races mainly because we do discuss them a lot each year and i think they are overrated by people to a degree as a pointer to the CH..more so the xmas hurdle.

i think one of the main issues is we don't really see enough of the main protagonists race against each other so that when a decent hurdle race does come up it creates plenty of chat...and the inevitable ..what price the winner for the CH

I suppose i'm just trying to profile the CH winner a little by removing races that don't display the sort of strengths you need for a CH..again i keep going back to the xmas hurdle which must be as a test the most unlikely C/D to spot the CH winner.
 
Last edited:
Hard to disagree with that but weird as it may seem that unlikely test, from the last 3 runnings, has produced 2 winners a 2nd and a 4th in the Champion Hurdle in Binocular 1st and 4th Rock On Ruby 1st and Overturn 2nd.

Binocular is heading for his 3rd win in the race but I would imagine after Rock on Ruby going close last year PN could well be thinking with Binocular not getting any younger it could be a good race to be sending Zarkandar for and of course Harry Fry could be thinking Rock on Ruby might also have another go. Might end up not a bad race this year.

If the Ground is Ok for Darlan I would expect he'll go to Newcastle and as mentioned before Grandouet will wait for the International.

If all that goes to plan Grandouet, Rock On Ruby, Cinders and Ashes, Binocular and Zarkandar will all have ran in trials this year and apart from Hurricane Fly what else is there. I would think there's a very good chance the Champion Hurdler 2013 is among them.


Be a sport and lay me evens one of the six wins it ;)
 
Flemenstar said:
I think this years Supreme will prove to be a weak bunch, with probably Montbazon being the most progressive. They will certainly have their work cut out to match the 2011 runners, who are proving to be the strongest bunch in recent memory, to of came out of the race.

I can see Rock On Ruby winning this if lining up.
Click to expand...
That is a very big if now as it will need to dry out big time for him to take his chance. Amazingly you can still have 1.98 about Cinders and Ashes which is as near to theft as you'll get without being arrested
 
Rock On Ruby out and Darlan


CHAMPION Hurdle hero Rock On Ruby will miss his intended comeback in Saturday's Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle due to testing conditions.

First season trainer Harry Fry has instead decided to wait for the International Hurdle at Cheltenham on December 15.

The trainer said on Thursday morning: "The plan was always to take the horse to Newcastle provided the going wasn't too soft. Unfortunately after the dreadful weather around the country the ground is bound to be very testing on Saturday.

"To run him first time on this type of going is not ideal. We are looking at the bigger picture because the aim for Rock On Ruby all season is to try to win the Champion Hurdle again in March and we think he has a decent chance of doing that.

"So we will give the Fighting Fifth a miss and wait instead for Cheltenham a fortnight later."

The ground at Newcastle was described as heavy with soft places in the last three furlongs on Thursday morning. Landings, takeoffs and vulnerable areas in back straight are due to be protected by frost covers.
 
Last edited:
Henderson has these totally unnecessary dramas with his top 2m hurdlers nearly every season.

Fk knows why he is seemingly so averse to running two of his in the same race. At this rate, Darlan make his seasonal re-appearance in the Haydock Champion Hurdle trial (unless the ground is too soft).

Erse.
 
Back
Top