The Gold Cup 2010
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Justin Redman
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Good booking for Tricky Trickster. Wouldn't be surprised if you see him staying on up the hill
davidjohnson
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Always think these markets are tricky. If Cooldine trys to win the race and gets involved in a battle with Denman and/or Kauto Star, it could soften him up to get picked off by one that is ridden for a place. Few would argue that Truckers Tavern or Sir Rembrandt were the second best horses in Best Mate's last 2 Gold Cups.
granger
Senior Jockey
It may be heart over head stuff but i'm coming around to the idea that Cooldine will run a massive race
I genuinely do - my two worries are Kauto (obviously) and if the ground by the Friday gets that bit too quick for him.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Yes, Paul Townend
But Kauto has a preference for better ground and Denman has a definite preference for softer ground. When you are talking about pounds rather than stones being the difference between them, ground plays a huge part. If it came up a bog, my money would be on Denman. If it came up like the road, I wouldn't touch Denman and therefore would go strongly for Kauto. The areas in between are shades of grey. You are right that Kauto's jumping and stamina have improved but he still has a preference for better rather than softer ground.
2008: Denman beats Neptune Collonges 7L and a shd, all out.
2009: Denman beats Neptune Collonges 8L, all out.
The prosecution rests.
Sling your slide rule away. The horse that won this year's Hennessy is a different horse from the one that struggled yet still finished runner-up in the Gold Cup last year.
I find it bizarre that you say that about Denman when the same can just as equally be applied to Kauto when he finished second in his Gold Cup.
For me, neither has run up to their best in defeat when they lost their Gold Cup crowns - and I find it hard to believe that so many on here cannot accept that instead just dividing into camps. I think Kauto Star is the better horse (in terms of ability, versatitlity etc) but I can still freely admit Denman had a horrible preparation last year and was not at his best.
Grasshopper
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It's my firm contention that there was nothing wrong with Denman that day - he was simply "jumped senseless" and thoroughly "demoralised" in the 2009 Gold Cup.
Kauto did not run to this year's Kempton form when runner up to Denman in 2008, but Kauto did run to a higher rating in defeat than when he won the race the year before.
However, the Gold Cup is run at Cheltenham not Kempton, as Euro, I and others have taken pains to point out.
However, the Gold Cup is run at Cheltenham not Kempton, as Euro, I and others have taken pains to point out.
It's my firm contention that there was nothing wrong with Denman that day - he was simply "jumped senseless" and thoroughly "demoralised" in the 2009 Gold Cup.
:lol: I normally say go with a firm conviction... I'd be worried for you in this case though.
Grasshopper
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The 2007 Gold Cup is an irrelevance. Haven't you previously suggested that Kauto Star ran to a higher rating in defeat in 2008, than he did in winning in 2009?
trackside528
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Not sure I would agree with that ~ if anything, Denman is better on better ground I reckon. Goes back to the whole argument about softer ground bottoming Kauto Star's stamina reserves.
My view, fwiw, is that Denman is the more likely winner over 3m2f at Cheltenham with both at their peak. I just can't be convinced Denman will be at his best on Gold Cup day after Newbury.
In a more general sense, Kauto Star will always be ranked higher than Denman in my book. The longevity and versatility that he has demonstrated from 2m to 3m2f at the very highest class really is something to be savoured.
trackside528
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This is the sort of thread that will have Steve breaking out in cold sweats at 3 in the morning for the next two weeks btw!!
Grasshopper
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That's the plan, tracks. :lol:
No... I'm saying Kauto ran to a higher rating in defeat in 2008 than he did when he won it the year before.
Grasshopper
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......OK - and I wouldn't contest that (though I think there is probably a lb or two at most between the performances).
The 2007 Gold Cup is not really relevant though, is it? It's the 2008 and 2009 runnings which are relevant.
The 2007 Gold Cup is not really relevant though, is it? It's the 2008 and 2009 runnings which are relevant.
:lol: I'm more relaxed about this race than I can tell you... I've backed Denman as big as 9s and as low as 9/4 (averaging above 5s). If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Those going odds-on Kauto to beat the good horse will be the ones in a cold sweat on the Thursday night.
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Neither is your opening posting on this thread relevant.
Grasshopper
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Isn't it?
If Denman put up an alleged superstar performance in 2008 - apparently jumping Kauto Star "senseless" and "demoralising" him in the process, then how come he was "not the same horse" the following year, when he has beaten Neptune Collonges in an almost identical manner, by an almost identical distance, in both runnings?
Neptune Collonges improved in 2009?
Nope. We already established that Denman had more scope for progression that Neptune Collonges.
Neptune Collonges was injured in during the 2009 race?
Flannel. The horse finished his race in exactly the same manner as he had in 2008.
The only conclusion we can draw from the two performances, is that either the 2008 race was not so strong as people suggested, or that it was, and the 2009 race is de-facto a much stronger contest.
Supports of Denman are apparently unable to reconcile this, preferring instead to trot out weapons-grade bullshit about the alleged strength of the 2008 race - with barely a scrap of evidence to support it, other than the fact that Kauto Star was beaten 7L.
If Denman put up an alleged superstar performance in 2008 - apparently jumping Kauto Star "senseless" and "demoralising" him in the process, then how come he was "not the same horse" the following year, when he has beaten Neptune Collonges in an almost identical manner, by an almost identical distance, in both runnings?
Neptune Collonges improved in 2009?
Nope. We already established that Denman had more scope for progression that Neptune Collonges.
Neptune Collonges was injured in during the 2009 race?
Flannel. The horse finished his race in exactly the same manner as he had in 2008.
The only conclusion we can draw from the two performances, is that either the 2008 race was not so strong as people suggested, or that it was, and the 2009 race is de-facto a much stronger contest.
Supports of Denman are apparently unable to reconcile this, preferring instead to trot out weapons-grade bullshit about the alleged strength of the 2008 race - with barely a scrap of evidence to support it, other than the fact that Kauto Star was beaten 7L.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Hang on, the 2008 race was run on slower ground and at a faster clip. It was a far more punishing race. So why would Neptune Collonges have finished as tired last year if he had been right throughout the race?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
2007 is relevant as hell. What you had there was a race run at such a slow pace that a rogue like Turpin Green could finish within five or so lengths of the winner.
Kauto Star is now trading at around 1.8 - and at that price everything has to be in his favour - and it is not. Because two things will beat him at Cheltenham, soft ground or a fast run race. I don't think he can handle either at that course. He fell in the only Queen Mother he contested and on soft ground in 2008 he made a few notable errors on the first circuit jumping on ground he didn't like before Denman stuck the knife in.
2006 - Fast ground in the QM but a 2mile pace - fell
2007 - Dead but not soft ground and a slow pace - won
2008 - Soft ground and a fast pace - 2nd
2009 - Goodish ground and a slow pace - won.