The Gold Cup 2010

It's not MY timeform figure. It's THE timeform figure. I don't rate jumpers. I was adding it merely to plug the gap in Grasshopper's post.
 
Whatever numbers we want to put on any of Kauto’s Gold Cup performances. What does seem clear is that Kauto ran to a better rating in 2008 (when second to Denman) than when he won the race the year before (even allowing for after-time adjustments).

I’m also quite sure that whatever number we want to call it this time round that at Cheltenham Denman will be able to outperform his stablemate.
 
SteveM said:
Whatever numbers we want to put on any of Kauto’s Gold Cup performances. What does seem clear is that Kauto ran to a better rating in 2008 (when second to Denman) than when he won the race the year before (even allowing for after-time adjustments).

I’m also quite sure that whatever number we want to call it this time round that at Cheltenham Denman will be able to outperform his stablemate.
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His first Gold Cup was run at a crawl - he was never going to show his true dominance in that.
 
SteveM said:
Whatever numbers we want to put on any of Kauto’s Gold Cup performances. What does seem clear is that Kauto ran to a better rating in 2008 (when second to Denman) than when he won the race the year before (even allowing for after-time adjustments).
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Again, it's acknowledged that 2007 was never a big 'numbers' run - hence my suggesting it has limited relevance in the context of the next two renewals.

SteveM said:
this time round that at Cheltenham Denman will be able to outperform his stablemate.
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I have no doubt that he will, and expect him to finish comfortably ahead of Tricky Trickster. :p
 
Steve, while I have immense respect for your knowledge and opinions, you must be the only person who absolutely expects Denman to beat Kauto. Sure if Denman is at or near his best and Kauto has an off day it could happen but I don't see where your unshakeable confidence comes from.
 
chroniclandlord said:
Steve, while I have immense respect for your knowledge and opinions, you must be the only person who absolutely expects Denman to beat Kauto. Sure if Denman is at or near his best and Kauto has an off day it could happen but I don't see where your unshakeable confidence comes from.
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Let's just say its a trait he has! Much like the rest of us he is right some times but also wrong.
 
Fair play to Steve ~ has made for cracking debate, at the very least!

Under all that bullishness I'd say he'll be sweating like a priest in a playground along with the rest of us come Friday week!
 
Any word on Tricky Trickster? Is he confirmed a runner - heard of two doubtful runners yesterday even him and Uimhiraceathair.
 
When Denman won Kauto fans all howled that he had an off-day and vice-versa last year, when Denman returned from illness. To be fair, neither horse looked 100% on those days - but Denman more markedly so.

If they both turn up in peak form - what a treat!
 
I know, and that's my point - we all know he had basically an off season. But there is scant evidence to suggest the same for Kauto the previous year. It's probably gonna be moot anyway - my theory that he can't jump efficiently out of softish ground at Cheltenham.
 
Euronymous said:
I know, and that's my point - we all know he had basically an off season. But there is scant evidence to suggest the same for Kauto the previous year.
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I contend that the proximity of Neptune Collonges in 2008 is plenty enough "evidence" to support the theory that Kauto Star under-performed that year - considering the grey would never ordinarily get within an asses roar.

I appreciate that the thurst of your argument is different, but even if you disagree with the above, it can't simply be dismissed as "scant evidence". It is every bit as likely (moreso, imo) as theories which suggest that Kauto was taken off his feet, or couldn't jump out of the ground.
 
Euronymous said:
I know, and that's my point - we all know he had basically an off season. But there is scant evidence to suggest the same for Kauto the previous year. It's probably gonna be moot anyway - my theory that he can't jump efficiently out of softish ground at Cheltenham.
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The proximity of Neptune Collonges etc etc but even allowing for that if you believe he can't jump efficiently out of softish ground (I could point to any numerous wins in soft ground) then that in itself suggests you believe Kauto Star ran below par or was not at his best.
 
Galileo said:
The proximity of Neptune Collonges etc etc but even allowing for that if you believe he can't jump efficiently out of softish ground (I could point to any numerous wins in soft ground) then that in itself suggests you believe Kauto Star ran below par or was not at his best.
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It was you Gal who first mentioned the mistakes he kept making on the first circuit before Denman put the hammer down. I would put that down to the ground/course combination - this is what led to his below par run, not simply this theory that he just had an off day. I don't think his wins on soft ground elsewhere are relevent.

Bottom line, if we had a deluge next Thursday and it was genuine soft ground how many Kauto fans would be confident of him winning?
 
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Euronymous said:
Bottom line, if we had a deluge next Thursday and it was genuine soft ground how many Kauto fans would be confident of him winning?
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My confidence - what it is, at least - would be unaffected in the event of Soft ground. I don't see the going as an issue for either horse, one way or the other. Same goes for trip.
 
granger said:
I'm just convinced that Kauto is the best horse in many a generation and definitely this race. Unless it turns into an absolute bog, he won't be inconvenienced
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My thoughts exactly - it needs to be a bog to influence my opinion. Soft enough to allow others to draw the class out of the race.
 
I believe that Kauto had an off year that year. That was the year he had a bad preparation for the race, I think at one point he was a doubtful runner and people have opined ever since that he wasn't right. He certainly ran like he wasn't right and didn't look great in the parade ring that day.
 
SteveM said:
If you don't want to bet against Kauto, I reckon you are right... you shouldn't have a bet rather than actually back the favourite.

However, you'd be turning down astonishing value on the 4s (I've taken more today) on a horse that must be in the first two and imo the first one.
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Steve

Good to hear someone has conviction that Denman will win the Gold CUp - you are seemingly a rare breed this year.

I had a strong feeling that Denman would win this in '08, but don't have the same confidence this time around (much as I would like to). IF Denman was back to his best then I think he could break Kauto Star again, but that is unquestionably quite a big "if" and I don't think he is any value at 4-1, especially as the ground looks set to be on the fast side.

Regardless of whether he represents value at that price, I definitely think you will get bigger on the day. So few people seem to fancy him relative to his price - indeed, if you had a Tote pool based on opinions at the preview nights, I think Denman would be double figures - even Harry Findlay seems to lack confidence in his horse. I think we could see 11-2 or even 6-1 on the day....
 
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Bold prediction, tdk!

Speaking of Findlay, surprised no one has mentioned the comments he made regarding the positive vibes coming out of Ditcheat before the Aon. I've not always agreed with Findlay or his boisterous personality by any means, but he hasn't ever struck me as a bullshitter. Denman may well have been beaten by being pretty seriously undercooked on the day, but it doesn't seem to square with the vibes coming from the yard beforehand. Or am I reading this wrong?
 
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