The Grey Horse Race

EC1

EC1

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2.45 Newmarket

interesting race re the pace make up

front runners
SUTTON VENY must lead type
DENS GIFT leads most races
LADY FLORENCE leads most races
BILASH leads most races

Discounting these as hopefully they will burn the pace out of the race

Horses that have won or come 2nd on soft ground

ZOWINGTON
SUNSHINE ALWAYS
WITCHRY
DENS GIFT omit due to pace pressure
SAKHEES PEARL
MEDICI TIME
LADY FLORENCE omit due to pace pressure


of those that favour the ground and are well handicapped and suit the pace

Zowington - last won off 77 and was just beaten in this off 84 last year - now runs off 70 due to 3 runs he couldn't win over 5f this year - looks plotted for this - stable in good form main contender

Sunshine Always - even with strong pace will need further - well handicapped but not won turf

Witchry - Last won off 62 - now on 58 but not won above class 5

Sakhees Pearl - could possibly win off 80 so is well handicapped off 75 - but only tried 6f twice and cut no ice either time - seems to need a stiff 7

Medici Time - last won off 76 now off 84 - that win was easy one over 5f so could still win off this mark but I'm not sure re the ground..only win on official G/S was in a race that broke 60 seconds at Ayr so ground was probably not that juicy. All other attempts on slow ground have resulted poor runs.



Thought I might have found at least 2 to back in this at least - but it appears ZOWINGTON is the bet for me
 
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Galileo said:
What was the going at Newmarket by the end of today?
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the 6f handicap yesterday was run 4.42 seconds slower than RP standard..equates to 5.89 per mile

standard is for OHR 100 horse carrying 9-0 on good i believe ..or is it postmark - not sure? ..not worth quibble

the winner was rated 82 carrying 9-11

expected time for that race on good ground was 1.19 seconds slower per mile than RP standard - using the OHR- plus the 11lbs - another 0.73 seconds - so race should have been run about 2 seconds slower per mile - ground is riding 3.9 seconds per mile slow..58 lbs slow...definately pretty soft

its quick drying there so if no rain today it shouldn't be too desperate - no good at all for fast ground horses though
 
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I've backed Witchry as well now - will relish the conditions

the race has cut up so bad now though - probably not worth the effort put in :)
 
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EC1 said:
2.45 Newmarket

interesting race re the pace make up

front runners
SUTTON VENY must lead type
DENS GIFT leads most races
LADY FLORENCE leads most races
BILASH leads most races

Discounting these as hopefully they will burn the pace out of the race

Horses that have won or come 2nd on soft ground

ZOWINGTON
SUNSHINE ALWAYS
WITCHRY
DENS GIFT omit due to pace pressure
SAKHEES PEARL
MEDICI TIME
LADY FLORENCE omit due to pace pressure


of those that favour the ground and are well handicapped and suit the pace

Zowington - last won off 77 and was just beaten in this off 84 last year - now runs off 70 due to 3 runs he couldn't win over 5f this year - looks plotted for this - stable in good form main contender

Sunshine Always - even with strong pace will need further - well handicapped but not won turf

Witchry - Last won off 62 - now on 58 but not won above class 5

Sakhees Pearl - could possibly win off 80 so is well handicapped off 75 - but only tried 6f twice and cut no ice either time - seems to need a stiff 7

Medici Time - last won off 76 now off 84 - that win was easy one over 5f so could still win off this mark but I'm not sure re the ground..only win on official G/S was in a race that broke 60 seconds at Ayr so ground was probably not that juicy. All other attempts on slow ground have resulted poor runs.



Thought I might have found at least 2 to back in this at least - but it appears ZOWINGTON is the bet for me
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That looks a good spot with Zowington but I'm going to dutch him with Witchry who has run well in this race for the last two renewals but finally has his conditions with his last two wins being at 6f on soft ground. He comes here fresh and in good form but is a lot worse off with Zowington at the weights compared to their last meeting in this race, but should handle conditions better than most and the booking of David Probert catches the eye.
 
swedish chef said:
That looks a good spot with Zowington but I'm going to dutch him with Witchry who has run well in this race for the last two renewals but finally has his conditions with his last two wins being at 6f on soft ground. He comes here fresh and in good form but is a lot worse off with Zowington at the weights compared to their last meeting in this race, but should handle conditions better than most and the booking of David Probert catches the eye.
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my thoughts exactly - see previous post

when i looked last night both were 11/1..so am a bit gutted to see the race cut up so bad..but obviously this was always going to happen in the conditions

there should still be a good pace hopefully - thats not as clear cut as it was before obviously
 
a few filters on the St Wifrid

far side is faster

top 3rd of draw

TAJNEED
HITCHENS
RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH
ADVANCED
MIDNIGHT MARTINI
DAMIKA
SIGNOR PELTRO

1st or 2nd over 6f on slow ground

TAJNEED
RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH
ADVANCED
DAMIKA
SIGNOR PELTRO

Damika looks handicapped out of it - so does Signor Peltro

Tajneed looks to have a great chance - can't be backing it at that price though

but at the prices - I'll dutch

RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH @ 10.5
ADVANCED @ 13.0


.
 
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Heres a copy of my post from another forum - I'm thinking of calling it a day.

Newmarket Soft going - my thoughts
Topic Started: Today, 12:09 PM (20 Views) Append a Poll · Edit Topic Title
swedish chef Today, 12:09 PM Post #1

Posts:6,948
Group:ITK Member
Member#195
Joined:September 30, 2008
Newmarket
1:45 – Dictionary – sire and dams sire both won very easily first time out over 6f on soft ground and both went on to win Group races.

2:15 – Kalk Bay – both sire and dams sire ran some of their best races with cut – I also like the fact the trainer is going for a h’cap after only two runs and the booking of J Fahy another positive as he’s had 5 runs for trainer in h’caps and won two was placed in two and claims 5lb.

2:45 – Zowington & Witchry – both have run well in this race before – both come here fresh and on good marks and both look to have been laid out for this race.

3:20 – Dafeef – has plenty of weight but is one of the few Godolphin horses to have been running well during their lean spell – with the horses now coming into form this drop back to 6f on soft should suit.

3:55 – Sirens – a chance is taken with this outsider who’s best run and only decent run came with soft in the ground – certainly bred to appreciate conditions but whether she’s good enough time will tell – Chris Catlin has been booked and he’s 3 wins from 7 2yo runners for trainer and at 14/1 looks a value bet. Also a small saver on Instructress another bred to appreciate conditions.

4:30 – Balius & Libel Law – tricky race this but I fancy a r/f/c on the Godolphin pair – both should be suited by conditions of the race.

5:05 – Pool Of Knowledge – another outsider but this horse has a nice bit of form over 11f on very soft ground in France last September and if this 1m4f race turns in to a real stamina test I’d like to be on this French Bred of Venetia Williams.
 
swedish chef said:
Heres a copy of my post from another forum - I'm thinking of calling it a day.

Newmarket Soft going - my thoughts
Topic Started: Today, 12:09 PM (20 Views) Append a Poll · Edit Topic Title
swedish chef Today, 12:09 PM Post #1

Posts:6,948
Group:ITK Member
Member#195
Joined:September 30, 2008
Newmarket
1:45 – Dictionary – sire and dams sire both won very easily first time out over 6f on soft ground and both went on to win Group races.

2:15 – Kalk Bay – both sire and dams sire ran some of their best races with cut – I also like the fact the trainer is going for a h’cap after only two runs and the booking of J Fahy another positive as he’s had 5 runs for trainer in h’caps and won two was placed in two and claims 5lb.

2:45 – Zowington & Witchry – both have run well in this race before – both come here fresh and on good marks and both look to have been laid out for this race.

3:20 – Dafeef – has plenty of weight but is one of the few Godolphin horses to have been running well during their lean spell – with the horses now coming into form this drop back to 6f on soft should suit.

3:55 – Sirens – a chance is taken with this outsider who’s best run and only decent run came with soft in the ground – certainly bred to appreciate conditions but whether she’s good enough time will tell – Chris Catlin has been booked and he’s 3 wins from 7 2yo runners for trainer and at 14/1 looks a value bet. Also a small saver on Instructress another bred to appreciate conditions.

4:30 – Balius & Libel Law – tricky race this but I fancy a r/f/c on the Godolphin pair – both should be suited by conditions of the race.

5:05 – Pool Of Knowledge – another outsider but this horse has a nice bit of form over 11f on very soft ground in France last September and if this 1m4f race turns in to a real stamina test I’d like to be on this French Bred of Venetia Williams.
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nice going :cool:

I've layed Normandy Bay in the 3.55 - couldn't decide which one will win..I doubt that one will act on the ground - good luck with Sirens
 
EC1 said:
what was the other forum you posted on Chef?
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It's a private forum - invite only and I was invited on there a couple of years ago - you can't view it unless your a member but very similar to this forum except this forum is more detailed and a lot more discussion goes on here.
It's called the ITK Gamblers Den and is run by a guy called Simon who had an accident a few years ago that resulted in him spending the rest of his life in a wheelchair, so he set up the forum which is his pride and joy and keeps him going. The ITK stands for In The Know and quite a few people on their have connections with stables and owners and we get the occasional tips but I can assure you the win rate is not that impressive. We have the occasional competitions and recently raised money to help Simon buy a new wheelchair as his old one was falling apart. When the two young jockeys were killed in that fire we raised money for the Injured Jockeys Fund. We've also met up at the races for days out etc...,
 
swedish chef said:
It's a private forum - invite only and I was invited on there a couple of years ago - you can't view it unless your a member but very similar to this forum except this forum is more detailed and a lot more discussion goes on here.
It's called the ITK Gamblers Den and is run by a guy called Simon who had an accident a few years ago that resulted in him spending the rest of his life in a wheelchair, so he set up the forum which is his pride and joy and keeps him going. The ITK stands for In The Know and quite a few people on their have connections with stables and owners and we get the occasional tips but I can assure you the win rate is not that impressive. We have the occasional competitions and recently raised money to help Simon buy a new wheelchair as his old one was falling apart. When the two young jockeys were killed in that fire we raised money for the Injured Jockeys Fund. We've also met up at the races for days out etc...,
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that sounds a superb set up Chef :cool:
 
What do you make of the Newmarket race with the benefit of hindsight, EC1? You certainly were correct in your overall pace analysis (even with the withdrawal of two of the pace angles) though it doesn't seem to have been a total burn-up .

More generally, in my limited experience evaluating pace I have found that a race featuring a number of prominent types is far from guaranteed to produce a burn-up, though it usually ensures that that those held up off the pace aren't at a significant disadvantage.* Rather burn-ups they seem to result from either a jockey wanting to set too strong a gallop (be it to emphasize stamina or on an established) or two headstrong types lighting each other up taking each other on from an early stage despite the jockey.

My experience is that true burn-ups (the Lingfield Oaks trial, for which David Johnson did an excellent comparative sectional analysis by hand somewhere on the forum being an example) are exceedingly rare in comparison to slow times as a result of a moderate pace through the early and middle sections of a race. Would be interested in hearing other thoughts.

*Another not insignificant advantage is that having a good idea of the pace shape of a race reduces ambiguity over jockeyship, particularly in races with unexposed types. To take an example from today, Richard Hills (Sharedah) and Kieren Fallon (Finest Reserve) took the bull by the horns in a race lacking any definitive pace (in contrast to what I thought was a bizarre tactial ride given to Jivry) the 1m2f 3yo handicap at Newbury, which was the making of the race. Not a pace shape that could have been seen beforehand and enough in itself for me to give a race the swerve from a punting perspective.
 
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trackside528 said:
What do you make of the Newmarket race with the benefit of hindsight, EC1? You certainly were correct in your overall pace analysis (even with the withdrawal of two of the pace angles) though it doesn't seem to have been a total burn-up .

More generally, in my limited experience evaluating pace I have found that a race featuring a number of prominent types is far from guaranteed to produce a burn-up, though it usually ensures that that those held up off the pace aren't at a significant disadvantage.* Rather burn-ups they seem to result from either a jockey wanting to set too strong a gallop (be it to emphasize stamina or on an established) or two headstrong types lighting each other up taking each other on from an early stage despite the jockey.

My experience is that true burn-ups (the Lingfield Oaks trial, for which David Johnson did an excellent comparative sectional analysis by hand somewhere on the forum being an example) are exceedingly rare in comparison to slow times as a result of a moderate pace through the early and middle sections of a race. Would be interested in hearing other thoughts.

*Another not insignificant advantage is that having a good idea of the pace shape of a race reduces ambiguity over jockeyship, particularly in races with unexposed types. To take an example from today, Richard Hills (Sharedah) and Kieren Fallon (Finest Reserve) took the bull by the horns in a race lacking any definitive pace (in contrast to what I thought was a bizarre tactial ride given to Jivry) the 1m2f 3yo handicap at Newbury, which was the making of the race. Not a pace shape that could have been seen beforehand and enough in itself for me to give a race the swerve from a punting perspective.
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i don't think a race needs to be a burn up to bring the hold ups into play - it needs to be just faster than is comfy for the front runners..which makes their task very difficult late on..bringing in the even paced plodders for a shot at winning

the degree of pain on the front pace decides the outcome of races and brings in or excludes certain horses from winning.

its not an exact science obviously and the races that are best served are those containing horses that we have a good deal of knowledge about

its as good as any other analysis though..i don't know of any ways of analysing form that is an exact science

thats why i laugh when people start nit picking how accurate speed figures are..when in fact they are no less accurate than say AvB form reading..just how accurate is that?

i've found that races further than 5f are better for this..the further the better usually..6f is a minimum

shall we keep an eye out for races that look strong on pace and see how much we can predict the outcome?..i'll keep an eye out and post them here.

the beauty of looking at pace is it is a decent filter to throw in with ..say draw bias.. to reduce a field.
 
The 3.10 at Ponty looks interesting - lots of front horses on display - will give it a coat of looking at later and post some thoughts
 
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3.10 Pontefract


Front Pace Horses

Spiritonthemount (led last twice and has led in the past)
Stage Acclaim (won last time from front and has led in the past)
Tillietudlem (Led last time and has done in the past)
Dan Buoy (Leads most races)

There are a couple more who have dabbled with prominent positions – all in all this race should be a real stamina test which will make it difficult to be near the front and hang on to win.

Horses I'm interested in would be the mid pack held up runners – the chase leader types could get dragged along a little too fast for their liking.

Mid/ Held up types

Petella – won a poor maiden handicap then lost in class 6 on Good ground– now up to class 5 and may need faster ground

Chocolate Caramel – had to be dropped to seller to get last win and has since been beaten in class 6 races – doesn't look good enough

Dubara Reef – improving – slight niggle that fast ground may be needed – contender

Bandanaman - 0/12 on the flat – just don't fancy it

Lava Lamp – dropped to seller for win – previously failed in madn handicap company – has raced mainly on fast ground so a doubt re the slower conditions as well

Carmela Maria – 0/20 on the flat – trainer is 1/114 on the flat

Fair Spin – seems to be on a comeback to old form on the flat and over jumps – contender

Spring Breeze – was favourite to beat Dan Buoy last time and will appreciate stronger pace stiffer course – stable in form - contender

Planetarium – well handicapped and can't rule out especially at the prices - contender



4 contenders [betfair price now]

DUBARA REEF [5.9]
FAIR SPIN [9.2]
SPRING BREEZE[24.0] should get bigger
PLANETARIUM [38.0] possibly get bigger

I'll split 15 quid around these using Dubara as a stake returner + a bit

5 quid on Dubara
5 quid on Fair Spin
3 quid on Spring Breeze
2 quid on Planetarium

just got on at 6.0 /12.5/22.0/65.0 respectively
 
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Dan Buoy not running seemed to change the run styles somewhat :confused:..wondered wtf were going on at one point

discounted the winner but it did come from off the pace to win as did discounted 2nd- wish DB had run tbh
 
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4.45 Wolves looks a cracker re pace

Glenridding - leads most times
Small John - leads most times
Kipchak - leads most times
Mistertinktastic - also helps out when they are busy on the leading front :)

its interesting that Glenridding is fav - looks a lay just on the pace angle.

of the other 6

Buxton - looks handicapped out of it the way he lost 2nd place last time

Greensward - - will act on the track looking at the sire stats - needs this pace to show best - handicapped to win - main contender

Mountain Cat - could get embroiled up with the early pace

Emeebee - definate chance here- needs strong pace - down the handicap and Musson having winners - contender

Shaws Diamond - 1/19 and that was from the front - don't fancy

Hatta Stream - no
========================================================

Main Bet
GREENSWARD @ 4.5

Small wager
EMEEBEE @ 17.0
 
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