The Hennessy

Irish Stamp said:
Albertas Run for me - Jonjo has run horses down the field in grad chases before and lined them up for a big handicap (see Exotic Dancer) and he has the class to take a race like this for sure. Would be half the price but for that warm up run.
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Agreed.
 
Galileo said:
Only a couple of weeks away now.

You have to respect Big Bucks on his stable alone, and Nicholls does seem pretty confident about his chances. But at 4/1 and 9/2 he is surely a little too short based on what he has actually achieved?

Any strong fancies? A few I like would be Albertas Run, Slim Pickings and High Chimes.

Albertas Run will improve a ton for his comeback run which had Hennessy prep written all over it imo. Probably did not get the credit he deserved last season when most where comparing his SunAlliance win to Denman's the year before.

Slim Pickings is the type of horse you would love to own. Rarely runs a bad race, so consistent, good attitude and a talented sort as well. Fine comeback run over a trip too short, plenty will have him written off as just a National type horse but that argueably stretches his stamina too much. Sounds claims.

High Chimes was last seen impressing at Cheltenham last season. A bit in/out performer but stays really well, yard always on form this time of year and could be a live one. Less confident about him than the other two but he still catches my eye.

Any fancies?
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I have backed Albertas Run and Slim Pickings today. Think both will go very close.
 
I think there is value in this market. The favourite and Island Flyer are way too short. Took 8.4 on Air Force One last week and I`ve backed Albertas Run at 12s also.
 
Looking closely Oedipe who has been a bit in and out but has shown some real ability
 
air force one for me if the ground not too 'tacky'....mann had his eye on this since his punchestown win...and i think he's improved jumping wise since albertas run beat him at ascot....not much in it though...................
 
Haven't looked at the race too closely but having had cursory looks at it I'd like the look of Alberta's Run and Oedipe.

I really can't see what Big Buck's has done to justify being such a short price, seems to me he's been a talking horse for a while now without necessarily showing on the course he is the animal he's been said to be.
 
His form is good if you look at it, and something has to be favourite, but I would worry that he is only five, which somehow feels a year too soon for a race like this, although a second-season chaser is often the one to be on.

Last years decent novice chasers have been doing really well in open company so far. Big Buck's, Albertas Run and Air Force One are all of similar ability, those and Dear Villez could all be considerably underrated, all nice horses. This might be a bit like when Trabolgan beat Comply Or Die, Cornish Rebel and L'ami.

Horses like Character Building and New Alco have had their chances to win this, though I could see My Will running a decent race.
 
His form is good, yes - however I'm not so sure it measures up to the talking up and hype he has received from some quarters though. He's got enough weight too in what tends to be a gruelling enough race.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Albertas Run for me - Jonjo has run horses down the field in grad chases before and lined them up for a big handicap (see Exotic Dancer) and he has the class to take a race like this for sure. Would be half the price but for that warm up run.
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I agree completely this is the one for me hopefully will get ground wont be to soft the weather is gonna stay dry till Saturday although slight worry of heavy showers lets hope they are after the race. Certainly overpriced imo. Will be backing as soon as the final decs announced and the bookies go non runner no bet as dont think prices will change too much before then.
 
If he has too much weight then so do his contemporaries, they are quite closely matched. He has to prove stamina in what, as you say, could be a gruelling race for one so young. I think all the four I mentioned have too little weight.

I'm not sure that Big Bucks has been especially talked up or hyped as much as you suggest. Have I missed it ? The only talking up and hype I have seen has been from Flame Beek!

If forced for a selection I would suggest Air Force One, tentatively.
 
It's been talked up enough that it was 9/2 for this race weeks ago - and yes, you must've missed all the talk that it was the 'one to be on' for the Hennessy - you clearly didn't miss the "biggest cert ever" tag from Flame either!!!

Mmm, Air Force One. Shame he's with Charlie Mann, couldn't possibly bring myself to back one of his! (yes, I know I backed Moon Over Miami last year at Cheltenham but that was over a year ago and the act of backing one of Mann's rarely happens in the SL household!) I'd rather he was trained by you, Gooby dear.
 
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He was talked up a heck of a lot last year Uncle - touted as a 2m chaser and was bitterly disappointing prior to Aintree.
 
oedeipe is a big price on betfair. putting me off a bit. why? maybe the weather forecast....?
 
Gearoid said:
New Alco @ 16/1 appeal to anyone?
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In a word - no! Although he goes extremely well fresh the stable form is a massive negative (prompts a 16/1 winner sluicing up:p)

I like stats but usually they provide the best lays once I have picked my top 4 out of them. Heres my findings:

(1) Well for a start I can't have either of the top 2.
Neither are Denman, or even Trabolgan come to that, & those 2 were the last to win off topweight.
(2)They are also at the wrong end of the age spectrum for this race.
6 & 7 year olds have won all bar one of the last 9 runnings & the other was won by an 8 year old.
(3)That also counts against Big Bucks (5yo) & Favs also haven't got a great record so thats a double negative!
(4)The last 3 winners were, of course, on their seasonal debuts.
(5)Winning form is good to have but must have had a top 3 place LTO at least.A reason that puts me off Oedipe & Albertas Run.
(6)No more than 1 run this season (another reason to ignore the Bowen pair).
Taking all that into consideration & you are left (at the moment) with this list:

Ornais
My Will
Air Force One
Dear Villez
Character Building
Island Flyer

Not sure what the plan is with Ornais as he's the only one of Nicholls without a jockey as I write so he could well be taken out. The rest are almost certain to run barring accidents.

I have included MY WILL as he goes well fresh & is a MASSIVE price for a Nicholls horse.Whether he will be given a hard time remains to be seen but could be worth a pound each way.

AIR FORCE ONE is ,IMO, a place certainty. The stable are on fire,Noel Fehily is riding out of his skin &,apart from the fast finishing Roll Along winning 1st time out again,he had them spread out behind him at Ascot. My only concern is that he does sometimes make mistakes when the pressure is applied but having said that they were his Novice days & judging by his recent runs they seem to have ironed them out. Big chance.

DEAR VILLEZ is another at a nice price for a Nicholls runner,one of the least experienced though so will have to be at his very best to win this but he is certainly on the upgrade. As won here & ground is no problems.Due to be ridden by another jockey who is at the top of his game,Christian Williams, who was unseated on his only ride on him so hopefully they will get round this time.Great each way bet though.

CHARACTER BUILDING. Last years 3rd returns to try again.Since that run he as had one run in a hurdle race at Towcester where he was racing off his 15lb lower hurdles mark. He races here off 3lb higher than last year & there is no reason to doubt he won't be able to handle that small rise after his recent return which should have put him spot on for this. Stable have been going well too but my only doubt is whether he as the touch of class to win this & he strikes me more of a 3m 4f plus horse,ie the Welsh National,where, if he got in off a low weight, he would be an ideal candidate especially as the ground there is likely to be soft at best which he should love.Place at best.

ISLAND FLYER,the market springer! Probably the least experienced horse in the field but 3 wins from 4 chases (some would say 4 wins, beaten a very small nose LTO) means he as to be taken very seriously.
Two course wins as well so obviously goes well here but what he's beaten in those races is debatable.his last race also seemed to take a lot out of him so you have to take that into consideration. My main concern though would be his liking to front run where here,in this class of race,I think he will come undone.But he is off bottomweight so could try & stretch them all but I'd be surprised if there wasn't something that will come & pick him off before the line.Place possibilities.

So there you have it,five solid lays for you cos usually my time spent writing these articles results in a faller,an unseat & 3 tailed off fancies:rolleyes:

Good luck whatever you back:cool:

PS I should point out that I have posted this on another forum too should anybody suspect anything.
 
Snoopy Loopy is on a winner almost regardless of what happens. If he proves he really is a 168 horse he'll probably win and help his order of merit cause to boot. If he proves he isn't, then this is step 1 on the road to getting a realistic rating for the National.
 
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Even if he got in from a weight he could be competitive off (he won't), it has to be long odds that Snoopy Loopy and rider would get round the National course with the partnership intact.
 
Air force one is my pick.dont fancy big bucks at all.The race he won at aintree they went no gallop and it turned into a sprint,Rather back albertas run then the nicholls horse.
 
I am convinced High Chimes will run a huge race.
Evan Williams is on fire at the moment "Deep Purple won at Taunton pulling a cart, full of running like Simarian at Cheltenham.
Chimes was well impressive at the festival and at solid 12/1 now across all bookies there's no chance being taken with him is there?
Season debut also
 
I've just come on here to say I reckon High Chimes will run a big race, Harry!

I've had a bit of 16 ew tonight since I've a sneaky suspicion he may be Pricewise, along with possibly Alberta's Run, if not AR on his own.
 
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