The King George

A somewhat less than equivocal quote from Clive Smith re his King George plans.

The plot thickens....

"There was an original thought that maybe we should go for this race [Betfair Chase] and if he ran creditably we'd then go for the Gold Cup, but that's four months away," said Smith.

"It may still be the best way to get the very best out of him [is to go] for one more race [the Gold Cup] and whatever happens retire him afterwards. We haven't decided on that.

"However, it seems a shame not to give him a chance in the King George. He's won it four times, he almost deserves it. It's his track, he runs it so well.

"He might have his best chance of winning the two major races of the year by going to the King George, and if he won it a fifth time it would bring the house down."

He added: "Master Minded is in the picture. He's running very well and is a younger horse, so it's very difficult to work it all out.

"It wasn't absolutely perfect ground for Master Minded at Ascot and ifit was a bit softer at Kempton on Boxing Day that would suit him, and a right-handed track like Ascot suits him too."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...-serious-option-for-kauto-star/950846/latest/
 
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I have no doubt that Long Run was expected to win and thought fit enough to do so . I agree that he is much more likely than Kauto to improve by Kempton but he needs to . Also I suspect SWC knows it is much better for him to be ridden with a bit more restraint - he moved up intending to put Kauto under pressure and it backfired spectacularly .
 
Euronymous said:
Maybe. But that was probably a reflection of the perceived lack of competition as much of them having him razor sharp.
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True enough - I don't think they expected Kauto to produce his best ever run at Haydock over the new fences or a 180 performance !

Kauto is the fly in the ointment really . If he turns up in that form at Kempton Long Run will have to produce the performance of his career to beat him .
 
Euronymous said:
Maybe. But that was probably a reflection of the perceived lack of competition as much of them having him razor sharp.
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correct

how many people thought KS was going to be trained to the minute?

KS has not been special FTO before

had KS run to his normal fto level..LR woudl have won even with mistakes

I can't see how KS has run more than a OHR 175..not decrying it obviously..but through weird al its a 175 would have thought
 
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Cantoris said:
You've gone all in on Long Run for the KG.

I expect the run on Saturday will have knocked the cob webs away. I thought it interesting that if fitness was a problem, SWC seemed so sure that he wanted to take on Kauto from the get go and down the far side. He could have sat off him, taken his time, got him jumping and finish where he was going to finish (which would have been second anyway). Masterful piece of riding from Ruby to push SWC into the side of one of the fences down the back. Masterful.
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I haven't had any bet... not sure where you are coming from.
 
What Kauto did last weekend was meritorious but Long Run should reverse the form in style on boxing day.
 
Hamm said:
I haven't had any bet... not sure where you are coming from.
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I was just commenting that you are very confident that LR will sluice up in the KG. I thought you'd be getting involved, from a betting perspective, while the competition is there before there are a few non-runners and the price contracts.
 
Cantoris said:
I was just commenting that you are very confident that LR will sluice up in the KG. I thought you'd be getting involved, from a betting perspective, while the competition is there before there are a few non-runners and the price contracts.
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Lets say Master Minded, Captain Chris, Somersby, Riverside Theatre, Medermit, Nacarat + the Hennessy winner turn up (I've left out Kauto for now) - what price would you say Long Run would be?
 
Hamm said:
Lets say Master Minded, Captain Chris, Somersby, Riverside Theatre, Medermit, Nacarat + the Hennessy winner turn up (I've left out Kauto for now) - what price would you say Long Run would be?
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it would be 6/4 ish i reckon..i'm not taking Saturdays race as meaning much more than a warm up

he has to be odds against because of the jumping.. i don't see any of the horses listed as a massive danger to him.
 
I still see Master Minded as the main danger to Long Run. If there is a Long Run of last season, this season it is probably Captain Chris, but it is doubtful that any young chaser will bridge the gulf that LR managed last season.

I'm still with LR.
 
Captain Chris is the only second season chaser I can see bridging the gap as well.
 
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Aragorn said:
Captain Chris is the only second season chaser I can see bridging the gap as well.
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Although I've backed him for the Champion Chase I've got a feeling he'll end up in the 2½ miler (Golden Miller) rather than the Champion or Gold Cup
 
SteveM said:
Although I've backed him for the Champion Chase I've got a feeling he'll end up in the 2½ miler (Golden Miller) rather than the Champion or Gold Cup
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Ryanair Steve :whistle:

He looks all over a stayer with plenty of pace to me. Hobbs probably will go Ryanair this year and wait for Kauto and Denman to finally flag and step him up next year. I don't see him as a champion chaser despite winning the Arkle.
 
I'm not seeing MM staying the trip at all tbh

In his career the furthest he has ran was over 2m5f on slow ground twice..and was beaten when expected to win both..fell once and beaten 8 length in the other

from that point in his career he has run 20f 3 times..all at easy to get ..tripwise...Aintree..lost 2/5..won 11/2..lost 2/5

on the evidence in the book..i wouldn't entertain him over 3 miles..especially one with a long straight that will really expose any stamina doubts..against horses that will break your heart trying to pass.
 
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LR isn't a horse i've ever backed Grassy..and tbh i probably won't ever..he's very very good..but the jumping..particularly if he's put under pressure from the off by such as KS..or even MM at some point..would always make him a touch vulnerable

i'd be quite happy to see him win it and the GC.. but i couldn't lump on him
 
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I am sure it is fashionable to believe that Kauto has had his last hurrah and he cannot possibly do that again but what is the evidence for that ? It is true that he was apparently trained to the minute but Long Run was clearly fit and look at the form of the Henderson yard.

Also , the evidence of past years suggests that the new Haydock course does not really suit Kauto - look at his performance the year he unseated Sam Thomas and he found it much harder to beat Exotic Dancer there than anywhere . He was clearly wrong in last year's KG and otherwise his very best performances have come there.

He is the one to beat again.
 
I'm going round in circles with that question Ardross. Any theory that he now needs to be fresh is built on the pack of one poor run at Punchestown at the end of last season. He'd hardly be the first horse to run poorly at that meeting would he?

Until running plans of Kauto/Master Minded are clear, I'm putting my feet up and watching Betfair Chase replays!
 
I think Kauto looked to have more zip on Saturday than he did this time last year. It was much more impressive than his Down Royal win. I take on board that he was more forward for this race, but I still think he can put it up to Long Run again at Kempton.
 
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