The King George

People have rambled on too much about Flemenstar and he has done nothing even close to Long Run, good horse that Flemenstar is.

I find that bizarre.
 
edgt said:
I agree Hamm.
A shame to see such a good horse get a rollicking!
Flemenstar would make the race very interesting !
If nothing else it would give the naysayers two reasons to feel aggrieved.
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I'm not giving LR a "rollicking", edgt. I have always liked the horse, but it doesn't change my view of the form of that race. Long Run needs a much stiffer test than Kempton's 3m these days, and will get left behind by something nippier. His only chance is if the race is run on ground which is utterly bottomless, or if this race is switched to Towcester after being snowed-off.

Cue Card has thrown-out one bad run his entire career - in last year's race. I personally wouldn't hold Tizzard as accountable as rory does (though clearly preference would be for someone else) and I've written the outing off as just one of those things.

He is a rock-solid proposition that one run apart, is well worth another dash over 3m, and is far-and-away the most obvious winner this far out; the best of his form being easily comparable with LR's best, in my view.
 
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as a fan of the horse i'm quite annoyed they're talking of this race for simonsig

seems utterly ludicrous
 
Don't think Long Run has ever lacked speed - in each of 4 seasons he's raced over here his highest RPR has invariably been achieved around Kempton, and he's never been outpaced around the track - except by Kauto Star.
Jumping's his problem, not lack of pace.
 
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His best run last season was in Ireland and let's be honest Kauto Star excepted he hasn't had to beat the best around in the race.

With Mullins seemingly intent on having more runners in the UK he presumably will target this race for Arvika Legionnaire. Soft ground on a right handed track are his optimum conditions.
 
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Euronymous said:
His best run last season was in Ireland and let's be honest Kauto Star excepted he hasn't had to beat the best around in the race.

With Mullins seemingly intent on having more runners in the UK he presumably will target this race for Arvika Legionnaire. Soft ground on a right handed track are his optimum conditions.
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I think Arvika will have a home campaign, plently of good races to pick up at Punchestown and if the ground comes up very soft the 2-1/2 miler or 3 mile @ D/Royal on James Nicholson saturday. The problem with targeting the KG is that apart from last year , the ground has come up good, good/soft the last 10 years.
You would think SDC would be his best chance in the KG, but Im not totally sold on this sending more horses to the UK . Is it Mullins sending a warning shot to Henderson and Nichols not to target too many in Ireland ,I dont know,
and after all wasnt all the travel the main reason Ruby give for leaving PN
 
Towards the end of last season WPM was running 4 and 5 horses in Punchestown Grade 1s.
Surely better for him to spread his load especially given the numbers of novice types in the yard. Graded races mid season in GB have smaller fields and it gives him a guide on GB form for the bigger pots.
Also he needs to keep all his jockeys happy and apart!
 
The gap might be around about that at this stage of their careers, Hamm, it's true. However, LR needs a really good test to show his best, and he's less likely to do so at Kempton, than he would at....say....Cheltenham (or Chepstow :D).

For all that Long Run is only rising 9yo, there are a lot of miles on the engine, and there's not going to be any further improvement from him. Whilst he might potentially remain out-of-reach of a horse like Arvika Legionnaire, in the absence of said ideal conditions, he is vulnerable to a host of other horses; including several of those named above. I just can't have him. *

* As you know, we had an identical discussion last year, and I did my absolute Jacksons. :cool:
 
This notion he needs a huge stamina test/has no speed doesn't bear out - his best form is over 3m (not Cheltenham) on what is considered one of the sharpest tracks for top grade racing.

AL will not win a top race in England, or be placed either I would think - I just don't see it with him.
 
If he reproduces ANY of his Kempton form, then 8/1 is an incredible bet and he will not be out of the frame. I am not saying he is a superstar, not saying he is going to win, but he is hugely overpriced, and should be 4/6 to place IF he gets there.

You seem to think his King George performances are below average, but they are not - they are if anything slightly above; but, don't hold it against him because he is not Kauto Star. There are no other superstars to fear this year either.
 
Scrambling home a neck from Capt Chris is assuredly not better-than-average for the race. It was the worst race form-wise in a decade of more, and his Gold Cup and Punchestown outings are self-evidently superior, imo.

There's absolutely no play in a single-figure-price this far out, because he is an obvious one to get into the book on the day.
 
Watched a rake of Spring Festival races earlier on RUK's Youtube channel, and was inspired to relieve B365 of even more of their money at Xmas:

£75 at 8/1 - Cue Card
£25 at 20/1 - First Lieutenant

The winner is covered. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Watched a rake of Spring Festival races earlier on RUK's Youtube channel, and was inspired to relieve B365 of even more of their money at Xmas:

£75 at 8/1 - Cue Card
£25 at 20/1 - First Lieutenant

The winner is covered. :cool:
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Don't forget your old pal Al Ferof Grassy
Almost guaranteed to stay and the race is a stated target.
 
Grasshopper said:
Watched a rake of Spring Festival races earlier on RUK's Youtube channel, and was inspired to relieve B365 of even more of their money at Xmas:

£75 at 8/1 - Cue Card
£25 at 20/1 - First Lieutenant

The winner is covered. :cool:
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Is the FL bet on him to run in the race itself? :D
 
fonz said:
Don't forget your old pal Al Ferof Grassy
Almost guaranteed to stay and the race is a stated target.
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Vastly more to prove than either CC or FL, in my view, fonz. He'd need to improve a chunk, and not the kind of race that can generally be won FTO.

Gigginstown have plenty of cover for the Lexus, Hamm. No reason why they couldn't send FL over for this, in which case he halves in price. If he doesn't run, I'd still expect him to finish in front of Long Run. :p :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Vastly more to prove than either CC or FL, in my view, fonz. He'd need to improve a chunk, and not the kind of race that can generally be won FTO.
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I've read somewhere AF will take in a race before the King George. Despite backing him I think Cheltenham might be more his track.
 
Grasshopper said:
Vastly more to prove than either CC or FL, in my view, fonz. He'd need to improve a chunk, and not the kind of race that can generally be won FTO.

Gigginstown have plenty of cover for the Lexus, Hamm. No reason why they couldn't send FL over for this, in which case he halves in price. If he doesn't run, I'd still expect him to finish in front of Long Run. :p :cool:
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They could have done that last year but didn't.

He is probably 7/4 to even line up, which would have him around 13/2 for the race itself as a 20/1 shot, hence why I think it's a bad bet.
 
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