The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

Liked the run under top weight today over hurdles of ​Dingo Dollar

Taken the 25-1 with the Sponsors
 
I own a toenail of Kemboy and this is the plan (currently) for him. He's no handicap snip and wouldn't fancy him off 11-09 if no Thistlecrack, but still would be great just to have a runner in the race
 
Makes you think how well in he was in the Irish National off 145. I prefer the Clonmel option but we don't get (or in my case, want) a vote.
 
I'd rather do the Ryanair this season and Gold Cup the next. He's only 6.

I doubt it will go that way.
 
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Elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick running tomorrow. I don't know about the Hennessy yet but I'm taking Thomas Patrick for tomorrow anyway.
 
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Delighted with that. Thomas Patrick swerves the penalty, and I reckon he’ll strip a lot fitter next time up.
 
I've been looking through the entries. Looks very open. Regal Encore ran the race of his life when third last year at 66/1. Admittedly he is a win or be pulled up type, but at a massive 50/1 it is tempting to back him each way again, knowing that a first four finish will be the same as backing a 12/1 winner. I will be looking to back something else nearer the race (and have two running for me). At the moment I am thinking, 'why let the big price put me off' Regal Encore?!
 
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Marble said:
I've been looking through the entries. Looks very open. Regal Encore ran the race of his life when third last year at 66/1. Admittedly he is a win or be pulled up type, but at a massive 50/1 it is tempting to back him each way again, knowing that a first four finish will be the same as backing a 12/1 winner. I will be looking to back something else nearer the race (and have two running for me). At the moment I am thinking, 'why let the big price put me off' Regal Encore?!
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Not quite, Marble.

£10 ew at 50/1, (1/4-odds) costs £20, returns £135 = 5.75/1

You'll maybe get 12/1 place-only on the day.
 
I've had a quickish look at the ones I reckon to be the more likely candidates. There's a lot of form I still have to look at but for this race I'm looking for a potential Gold Cup winner off a good handicap mark. Whisper didn't quite win the race last year but in trying to give Total Recall so much weight his performance would have been good enough to win an average Gold Cup. Hendo tends to send a top class horse for this so despite his setback yesterday I imagine Terrefort will be getting intense treatment to ensure he gets there fit and well.

Bear in mind, too, that second-season novices might be able to find 10lbs or so pretty much from nowhere. If they're already high class so much the better, so the festival novice chases should be a happy hunting ground.

Don't forget those that for one reason or another were forced to miss those races so remain entirely under the radar.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not quite, Marble.

£10 ew at 50/1, (1/4-odds) costs £20, returns £135 = 5.75/1

You'll maybe get 12/1 place-only on the day.
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Good point, DO. While I think he could place, ultimately I am pissing in the wind with Regal Encore, as he can't win. Hence I am increasingly considering something else in the shape of Dingo Dollar for an anti post bet, (I reckon he could start shorter on the day). He is progressing nicely, has some good course-winning form from 2M7F last December. Recently he had a good spin over hurdles where he finished fourth. He is 25/1 top price with Boylesports, as low as 14/1 with other firms. If the winner doesn't come from the two market leaders (both look to have good chances) I could see Dingo Dollar in the shake up.
 
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Marble said:
Good point, DO. While I think he could place, ultimately I am pissing in the wind with Regal Encore, as he can't win.
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It's the kind of race that could end up cutting up in running depending on the ground and pace. I would envisage RE, if it ran, being ridden for a place as it is simply not well enough handicapped to win a Hennessy. A £20-£50k Saturday handicap maybe, but not a Hennessy. I don't think 50/1 is generous.

However, the place-only market is a route I often consider if I like the look of a rank outsider I genuinely don't think can win but might have strongs chances of placing. The mental approach (mental indeed, I hear you say :)) I take is that if I'm backing, say, a 50/1 shot place only at 12/1 in the belief it cannot win, I'm getting the full 12/1 then I can put the full stake on. In my head I convince myself I'm then getting double the full price but not losing out on the wasted win portion.

EG

£10 ew at 50/1 cost £20, returns £135
£20 at 12/1 place only costs £20 returns £260.

To get the latter return from an ew bet would require pretty much double the stake or double the win odds (and 8x the place-only odds). (£10 ew at 100/1 returns £260)

The place-only market can be a useful approach a) when the odds are right, and b) when you don't really think the horse can do better than a place.

I've been known to back the same horse in both markets.
 
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