The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

From thestatsdontlie.com

[h=2]Trends[/h][FONT=&quot]Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites have won, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ladbrokes Trophy , 7/12 winners ran within the last 55 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season[/FONT]
 
archie said:
From thestatsdontlie.com

Trends

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Price – 4 of the last 12 favourites have won, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ladbrokes Trophy , 7/12 winners ran within the last 55 days
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newbury, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Newbury
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 150 or higher
Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
Season Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 run that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
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12 of the last 12 winners were well handicapped
15 of the last 15 winners were well handicapped
20 of the last 20 winners were well handicapped


The only stats you need to know :)

Seriously, though, I'd suggest of the above only these can be taken seriously:

Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 & 8
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 had at least 1 previous wins over 24 furlongs or further
Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins

 
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I'm happy with those stats, Thanks Archie. Dingo ticks a lot of boxes then. He has every right to be the price he is btw. According to Alan King, the only real thing to be concerned about is too much rain.
 
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Need to wait on the weather and that depends on which site you use. Most seem to think that most of the rain will be done by declaration time on Thursday.
If the forecast going is soft, Don Poli will likely run and establish the handicap. Good to soft probably not.

I wouldn't want Ms Parfois or Thomas Patrick unless it was properly soft and, disregarding Kemboy, I'm struggling to see why Black Corton is as long as he is.
 
I did The young master today.i think 16/1 is a nice price and hes nicely hcapped.his new mark is 142.
 
The Young Master, on a going day, is one horse I would fear. Great to see a class horse come back like he has. But I would still take 13/8 in a matchbet that Dingo finishes in front of him..:)
 
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Dingo Dollar is approximately 25-30 percent shorter in price than The Young Master based on all odds quoted, (not top price with an individual firm, but odds offered by every major bookmaker combined). In effectively a two runner match-bet race, I would take 13/8 or above, if I was that way inclined.
 
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Even if they were exactly the same odds to win the race, I'd still take 13/8!
 
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If the rain comes Ms Parfois has to run a race here off 146. Backed her at 16s.

This is not a strong renewal.
 
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Marble said:
The Young Master, on a going day, is one horse I would fear. Great to see a class horse come back like he has. But I would still take 13/8 in a matchbet that Dingo finishes in front of him..:)
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Are you looking to get even after the last matchbet that i won.
 
One of the things I had to double-check yesterday was the form of elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick, both disputing favouritism.

They might be the key to the race, as the market suggests, but they might also be very false favourites. The handicapper left both alone for their race the other week so EE's penalty could well make life very difficult for him, especially if the handicapper wasn't that impressed by Thomas Patrick (since he left him alone). The bare form suggests the handicapper was right so there's a clear difference of opinion between him and the bookies and general public, or are the bookies just manufacturing false favourites to sucker in the mugs?
 
Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.
 
A horse's rating is only important when compared to the ratings of other horses. Kemboy's OR is 157 and he'll run off that if Don Poli and Al Boum Photo come out on Thursday. Last year Whisper near as damn it won off 161. Most of last season's novices have a guesstimate for a rating which is why it's so difficult to decide which is well in and which isn't. At least Kemboy's rating was earned in a handicap.
His jumping has certainly been an issue, ending his chances in the JLT and Irish National, but every time Paul T has ridden him any mistakes haven't lost much or any ground. If he rides him on Saturday I think you can conclude that he's the stable pick. If he doesn't it will make a big difference.
Will he win? Life isn't usually that kind but with a clear round you'd like to think that he's at least a player. Safe home is all I really want.
 
Would this be the highest profile race the Supreme Club have had a runner in Archie?


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Desert Orchid said:
One of the things I had to double-check yesterday was the form of elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick, both disputing favouritism.

They might be the key to the race, as the market suggests, but they might also be very false favourites. The handicapper left both alone for their race the other week so EE's penalty could well make life very difficult for him, especially if the handicapper wasn't that impressed by Thomas Patrick (since he left him alone). The bare form suggests the handicapper was right so there's a clear difference of opinion between him and the bookies and general public, or are the bookies just manufacturing false favourites to sucker in the mugs?
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Probably a hard race for the handicapper to weigh-up with any great confidence, given Terrefort didn’t run his race, and he possibly took the view that the 4lb penalty was going to be enough for EE.

Dunno that the market-leaders can be considered ‘false’. It’s 6/1 the field, there’s barely a point in it between the first four in the betting, and it’s ultra-competitive. Something has to be fave, and understandable that the books would be cautious about those having both a run under their belts, and the race as their confirmed target. I can’t see what else you make favourite, other than those already at the head of the market, tbh.
 
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Euronymous said:
Who else would be fav though? I guess you could put Ms Parfois in that position, she's a very sold jumper and the 4 miler could have been a good race. Kemboy? He's a terrible price - this time 11 years ago Denman off the same mark was 5/1. Kemboy is no Denman - he doesn't even jump that well. No other candidates imo.
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This isn't a rhetorical question, but what price were EE and TP before their race? (I genuinely have no idea as I wasn't following the market.) I'm guessing about 10/1-12/1, so if the handicapper is saying they haven't done anything other than run to their mark they've effectively almost halved in price for the sake of showing they're fit and well. It probably should be 10/1 the field at this stage and I reckon if the bookies offered those prices the market itself would tell a truer story as real money would come in if they were genuinely likely winners.

Same with Kemboy. His reappearance win didn't amount to as much as his best form of last season. All it showed was that he is fit and well.

I would be very surprised if there was serious money about for anything. I understand Al Boum Photo was Timeform's long-range ante-post tip, which would explain his price.

The stat about 6-8 year-olds' good record is logical. Most of them would be second-season chasers who would be expected to improve some 10lbs on their novice season. It covers the market leaders but the prices pretty much already have that improvement as a given. A lot of the others in the same age group are under the radar.

But every now and again we get a Carruthers type: a solid, established handicapper whose form has struggled to keep up with the young improvers so the handicapper over-relents and he ends up getting in off a winnable mark. The Young Master is certainly in that category, getting to race off 139 having won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and who has looked on good terms with himself after a couple of disappointing seasons.
 
Outsider said:
Are you looking to get even after the last matchbet that i won.
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Haha, I don't take shrewdies like you on unless I am very confident. Good luck with The Young Master, he is good horse on his day and very interesting to see him in there with a light weight.
 
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