The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

Cheers. Can you add anything further to my assessment of Dingo Dollar? He is the one I want be backing in the next week or two.
 
Marble said:
... I am increasingly considering something else in the shape of Dingo Dollar for an anti post bet, (I reckon he could start shorter on the day). He is progressing nicely, has some good course-winning form from 2M7F last December. Recently he had a good spin over hurdles where he finished fourth. He is 25/1 top price with Boylesports, as low as 14/1 with other firms. If the winner doesn't come from the two market leaders (both look to have good chances) I could see Dingo Dollar in the shake up.
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My honest assessment without delving too much into the form at this stage as that a horse that couldn't win a novice hcap chase at Ayr off 143 is not going to worry anything with serious Hennessy aspirations, Marble. You're really looking for a Gold Cup horse in the Hennessy. If you can see DD running in the Gold Cup then by all means wire in. I can see him contesting the odd good Saturday handicap through the season but he doesn't strike me as a Festival type, which is what you need. Sorry, but you did ask :)
 
He was giving away nearly a stone that day (to the winner) at Ayr, DO. Wasn't a bad run at all. The winner (from memory) was bang in form and on a four timer. Dingo Dollar is still only six years old and open to plenty more progression.
 
Marble said:
He was giving away nearly a stone that day (to the winner) at Ayr, DO. Wasn't a bad run at all.
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True but irrelevant in the context of a Hennessy.

Marble said:
The winner (from memory) was bang in form and on a four timer.
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... by which time the handicapper was catching up on him.

Marble said:
Dingo Dollar is still only six years old and open to plenty more progression.
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... along with the seven other 6yos in the race, not to mention eight second-season 7yos, who are just as open to improvement.

Having said that, Marble, don't let me put you off. Your opinion is every bit as valid as mine. I'm merely offering you mine, as requested.

Who knows I might end up backing DD on the day!
 
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I doubt any of these, including the eventual winner, will place in The Gold Cup this season. Very unlikely I would have thought. Also, you suggested that Dingo Dollar can't win this for finishing second off 143 at Ayr, I then said he was giving away 12lbs and will come on bags for the run: You say it's irrelevant !! :) Underestimate Marble's Dingo Dollar at your peril, I say.
 
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Marble said:
I doubt any of these, including the eventual winner, will place in The Gold Cup this season. Very unlikely I would have thought.
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Native River won this off 155 two years ago and went on to place in the Gold Cup by which time he was rated 168. That's the kind of handicap you need in a modern Hennessy.

Whisper was edged out last year off 161, trying to give a stone to Total Recall which was making headway into sixth when falling in the Gold Cup.

Bobs Worth won off 160 and followed up in the Gold Cup when rated 171 next time out, for which he went up to 180.

I cannot understate the class required to win a modern Hennessy / Ladbrokes. Can I ask you what leads you to believe that a horse that couldn't win off 143 is going to win a Hennessy other than the assumption that it will progress? All the second-season chasers will progress and some of them will have run in or even won Graded races.


Marble said:
Also, you suggested that Dingo Dollar can't win this for finishing second off 143 at Ayr, I then said he was giving away 12lbs and will come on bags for the run: You say it's irrelevant !! :)
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DD won't come on bags for that run. He'll maybe improve for the summer off and the time to develop, but so will nearly all the second-season horses. The weight he gave away to the winner is irrelevant because a) he failed to give the weight away and b) the winner must have been rated 131 wich is basically a Class 3 handicap mark, a £10-20k race level of animal. That for me is entirely irrelevant to a Hennessy. He'd need to pay to get in the door at Newbury.

Marble said:
Underestimate Marble's Dingo Dollar at your peril, I say.
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I don't underestimate Dingo Dollar. Even if I over-estimate it I can't see it getting close to winning. A place, maybe, if he makes abnormal progress. The stable won this with Smad Place off 155, for which it went up to 168 and was fancied for the Gold Cup. Class. Dingo Dollar has already gone up 5lbs (to 148) for not winning at Ayr. His Festival target was the National Hunt (4m) chase.

I wish you all the very best with him. I'm sure you'll get a lovely price about him at Betfair :)
 
Just checked the stable tour comments. Alan King says he sees DD 'long term' as a Scottish National type. That says it all. NH Chase last season, Scottish National either later this season or next season.

Might run in the Ladbrokes but can only be part of a long-term plan.

Unless he's putting us all away.
 
Fair enough, DO. He has only had five starts over fences; this will be second season chasing. He is 2/5 over fences, which includes the win at Newbury over 2M7F. He really caught my eye as one that could both shorten in the betting and run well on the day, that is not currently on many people's radars. He does need to step up though, your right that this is a major step up in class. The fact Alan King thinks he might need further in time is okay with me. He wants to be prominent in his races. To try and ride on the pace in a Hennessy and have any hope you'd need to stay the trip well anyway.
 
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Willie Mullins speaking on the phone at Ladbrokes Trophy press day: "Kemboy looks the one for me. He has picked up a 4lb penalty but he is fit and well and I think he is improving." Total Recall, Rathvinden and Pairofbrowneyes could also run. Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only ruled out.
 
If it runs The Young Master must have a decent chance.Elegant Escape does look to have a outstanding chance but only 6/1.
 
Outsider said:
If it runs The Young Master must have a decent chance.
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Again, I haven't crunched the numbers but TYM was lobbed in on his best form and for me was going to repel the fallen challengers the other day. He is very well handicapped but there may be one or two even better in.

I was very glad (even though I didn't back it) RTK won on Saturday. I had it joint top-rated but didn't back it because I wasn't sure if my figure was reliable. It proved it was.

I haven't done all the form for this race but if my figures are anywhere near correct I'm getting excited about the odds I might get for one of my very highly-rated ones.
 
Haven't been on for a while but hope you're all well If it's the one I'm thinking of D.O the form has worked out very well indeed off the back of that big figure so looks like it could be as good as it looked. Very exciting but I won't spoil the surprise for you.

Best of luck with the race lads.
 
Vyta Du Roc at 40s with Skybet looks too big for me.

I'll have a few darts in this race unlike the BetVictor last week when I was foolishly all in on Kalondra. Proabably going to go with 4, Thomas Patrick is a fancy but a bit too short in the betting at this stage.

Step Back at 25s.
Don Poli just because I love the horse
And Thomas Patrick if it drifts somewhat between now and next week.
 
Looks to me like quite a few of the top weights might pull out at the confirmation stage on Tuesday.

Incidentally, I think that the RP have got the card wrong in the way that they've applied penalties. As I understand it, penalties aren't applied until declaration time and only then when the weights have been raised to make top weight 11-12. If the top rated declaration is Un Temps Pour Tout, original weights will go up 7lb. Kemboy's actual OR is 157 not 161 as shown in the RP (by including the 4lb penalty) so his weight will go up to 11-11 before the penalty is applied. No horse will carry more than 11-12 so he will, in effect, only get a 1lb penalty.
 
archie said:
Looks to me like quite a few of the top weights might pull out at the confirmation stage on Tuesday.

Incidentally, I think that the RP have got the card wrong in the way that they've applied penalties. As I understand it, penalties aren't applied until declaration time and only then when the weights have been raised to make top weight 11-12. If the top rated declaration is Un Temps Pour Tout, original weights will go up 7lb. Kemboy's actual OR is 157 not 161 as shown in the RP (by including the 4lb penalty) so his weight will go up to 11-11 before the penalty is applied. No horse will carry more than 11-12 so he will, in effect, only get a 1lb penalty.
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Correct, archie, but it's a 3lb penalty rather than the 4lbs with Don Poli there.

Anyway, I've done my first full trawl and come up with these figures. I haven't yet bracketed off last season's form and I'll edit this again by Saturday. There are no jockeys as only two are so far engaged (Hutch for Dingo Dollar and Sam W-C for The Young Master).

[TABLE="width: 913"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Form[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Stats[/TD]
[TD]Days[/TD]
[TD]Age[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]TS[/TD]
[TD]MON
(179++)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 38 [/TD]
[TD]380-62 [/TD]
[TD] Flying Angel [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 8 [/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies [/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]153 [/TD]
[TD]187[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]181 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3 [/TD]
[TD]/3P23/ [/TD]
[TD] Don Poli [/TD]
[TD]bf [/TD]
[TD] 657 [/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-7 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]160 [/TD]
[TD]- [/TD]
[TD]184[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]- [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 34 [/TD]
[TD]11222- [/TD]
[TD] Ms Parfois [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD] 232 [/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]Anthony Honeyball [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]144 [/TD]
[TD]182[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 28 [/TD]
[TD]1U58-3 [/TD]
[TD] Go Conquer [/TD]
[TD]bf [/TD]
[TD] 28 [/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-8 [/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies [/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]+ e y[/TD]
[TD]176 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 35 [/TD]
[TD]PP222- [/TD]
[TD] Isleofhopendreams [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 217 [/TD]
[TD]11 [/TD]
[TD]10-5 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]144 [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]p s[/TD]
[TD]173 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10 [/TD]
[TD]11FPP- [/TD]
[TD] Total Recall [/TD]
[TD]CD [/TD]
[TD] 220 [/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]11-3 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]156 [/TD]
[TD]155 [/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]171 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17 [/TD]
[TD]13P3U- [/TD]
[TD] Invitation Only [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 221 [/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]123 [/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]174 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 27 [/TD]
[TD]/1P4P- [/TD]
[TD] Beware The Bear [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD] 224 [/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]124 [/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8 [/TD]
[TD]1154-2 [/TD]
[TD] Black Corton [/TD]
[TD]bf [/TD]
[TD] 28 [/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]11-4 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls [/TD]
[TD]157 [/TD]
[TD]134 [/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]170 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16 [/TD]
[TD]/1P21/ [/TD]
[TD] Otago Trail [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 665 [/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]Venetia Williams [/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]- [/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]- [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 26 [/TD]
[TD]233P-1 [/TD]
[TD] Sizing Tennessee [/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD] 57 [/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]151 [/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12 [/TD]
[TD]1/P29- [/TD]
[TD] American [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 260 [/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]11-1 [/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry [/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]114 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 41 [/TD]
[TD]6U8-11 [/TD]
[TD] The Young Master [/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD] 15 [/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-0 4ex [/TD]
[TD]Neil Mulholland [/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]147 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]+ [188][/TD]
[TD]174 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4 [/TD]
[TD]F2F1O- [/TD]
[TD] Al Boum Photo [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 221 [/TD]
[TD]6 [/TD]
[TD]11-6 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]159 [/TD]
[TD]125 [/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[TD]? p +?[/TD]
[TD]171 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18 [/TD]
[TD]11182- [/TD]
[TD] Monbeg Notorious [/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD] 221 [/TD]
[TD]7 [/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]151 [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]175[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]171 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD]4F11-1 [/TD]
[TD] Kemboy [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 16 [/TD]
[TD]6 [/TD]
[TD]11-8 4ex [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]161 [/TD]
[TD]149 [/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11 [/TD]
[TD]2133-1 [/TD]
[TD] Elegant Escape [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD] 20 [/TD]
[TD]6 [/TD]
[TD]11-2 4ex [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]155 [/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 39 [/TD]
[TD]56P-3P [/TD]
[TD] West Approach [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD] 14 [/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard [/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]{182o Hd §?}[/TD]
[TD]173 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13 [/TD]
[TD]2BU14- [/TD]
[TD] Rathvinden [/TD]
[TD]D [/TD]
[TD] 221 [/TD]
[TD]10 [/TD]
[TD]11-1 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]154 [/TD]
[TD]105 [/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23 [/TD]
[TD]F112-4 [/TD]
[TD] Dingo Dollar [/TD]
[TD]C D [/TD]
[TD] 23 [/TD]
[TD]6 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Alan King [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]121 [/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]? p 168 p Hd[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 25 [/TD]
[TD]1411-2 [/TD]
[TD] Thomas Patrick [/TD]
[TD]CD [/TD]
[TD] 20 [/TD]
[TD]6 [/TD]
[TD]10-9 [/TD]
[TD]Tom Lacey [/TD]
[TD]148 [/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]? p +?[/TD]
[TD]175 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 33 [/TD]
[TD]2148-1 [/TD]
[TD] Up For Review [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 202 [/TD]
[TD]9 [/TD]
[TD]10-7 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]126 [/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]? p[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 37 [/TD]
[TD]/1P31- [/TD]
[TD] Allysson Monterg [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] 220 [/TD]
[TD]8 [/TD]
[TD]10-5 [/TD]
[TD]Richard Hobson [/TD]
[TD]144 [/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]171[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]170 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I'm leaving the likes of Ms Parfois until the weekend for a bet as I don't think they'll shorten up but I've nibbled at Flying Angel and The Young Master (who is really only penalised 1lb because Sam W-C didn't claim last week).
 
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I read a press report that the sponsors, Ladbrokes, are going non runner no bet from today. This was from an Australian link on the web, (which I can't recall off the top of my head.) I can't see this clarified on oddschecker though? Hopefully they are offering this to everyone, not just Australian or internet punters.
 
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By the way, Marble, I stand by what I said about Dingo Dollar and the Ayr form. However, his recent pipe-opener over hurdles suggests he has improved over the summer and if he can translate that improvement back over fences he could have decent place prospects so keep your hopes up! However, his current price does nothing for me. If it's stable money behind his [for me] very short price, that could be telling.
 
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