The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

Just wrote this over at my old place first piece for a long time and never that good anyway but thought I'd share thoughts and copy it over.

Struggled to sleep tonight so I've had a little bit of time to try and clarify my thoughts on the Ladbroke Trophy not that in the end I've come up with anything that solid but I thought id try to relax myself by letting the thoughts flow out.

So the first thing to deal with is probably the bunch at the front of the market. Elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick first up and the question that always stands for me is not so much do they look the right type but do they look well handicapped. Over the years I've really struggled to get a grip with this race and just as I felt I was starting to wrap my head around it we are faced with something different to what we'd usually expect.

Last years top novices aren't here and instead we seem to have B squadron. Elegant Escape was beaten quite comfortably at Aintree and Cheltenham similar distances by Terrefort and Percy. He also had a couple of close encounters with Black Corton throughout the season and between the two of them we get a fairly reliable yardstick for the level form. Where do we think that lies ? Well quite honestly I think the official handicapper has them about spot on 155 and 157 and a couple of pounds either way for either and I couldn't argue. Probably a stone away from being serious Gold cup contenders and that's probably backed up by R.S.A and Aintree form and Black corton's run in the Charlie hall where he's close to Defintely Red who's in that same bracket I think its fair to say.

So normally we'd need a fair bit in hand to win a Hennessy but this is a crap one so perhaps just a solid performance on the day of a horse running to its mark may well be enough.

Thomas Patrick is currently Favourite and you can see why he has the course form the progressive profile and a reliability about his performances that sort of lend to the he'll be there or thereabouts which would give him the nice and safe e/w bet had the field and the prices not cut up so much.To the lovers of the e/w to nothing he's the sort who they'd like. I'm not so convinced myself that his improvement is bound to continue. His win at Aintree last term, his last win, I have a fairly decent grip on Paper Lantern 3rd and On Tour 2nd and although that's fair and solid handicap form a 9lb whack for that is going to be more than enough I feel to make life difficult from here on in.

Obviously on reappearance he's put in a fairly nice effort against Elegant Escape and his reward for getting beat is escaping the penalty for this. The other 2 horses in the race haven't really put their best foot forward so we just basically have to take it for what it is a 151 rated animal giving only 2lb to a 148 rated animal and beating him half a length with both trainers making claims that the horses will have come on a great deal for that. Well Joe Tizzard reckons EE has come on a ton for it. The Tizzards as we saw last year are fairly full of **** and change there story to suit the situation of the day so we don't really know how fit EE was. Perhaps what is more telling is the tactics employed by Thomas Patricks side that day they really forced the issue ....do you do that if you think your horse is really short of work ? I'd imagine something like the Trainer telling the jockey that the horse is plenty fit enough so make it a test. Now if that's your tactics to make it a test and you get outgunned in the finish I'm not sure what that says ? Possibly that the other fella is a fair bit better and he's probably if faced with another race on softer ground over further going to outgun you again when in counts even with a 4lb penalty and a 5lb swing in the weights ? Maybe not but I'm not as sure as most that he'll just reverse that Sandown form here either way that's a close one and as discussed if EE isn't or doesn't appear to be that well handicapped then it stands to reason that Thomas Patrick isn't either.

Then next in line is Dingo Dollar who at least is a little more unexposed but I find a type of could be anything is to heir on the side of caution that they are probably not the next big thing and especially until they display something on the clock that suggests they can act at pace. He did look impressive here last term but that's 18lb lower and lets face it 18lb off makes anyone look better. I'd look like a bald Tom Cruise if I lost 18lb ! When he's been done at Ayr from 5lb lower its a fair performance but those that surrounded him didn't scream class, nor did they themselves appear to be the best handicapped bunch especially considering the value of the prize.

The Young Master seems to have been around forever and yet it doesn't seem 5 minutes since he was bizarrely disqualified from that Badger ale victory some years ago. Where would you bracket him ? Still feasibly handicapped but It'd be a bit disappointing from a quality point of view if he could win this and he's probably only a fair price atm. I'd also be very suspect about his jumping at a track like Newbury so he's not for me today.

Americain we probably saw what he's all about last year. Claimer on board helps him a little but an overall view would be I think he lies in a similar bracket a stone short of being a Gold Cup contender on his good days, not always easy to catch him on a good day though and not as open to improvement as some of those here in the same bracket.

Black Corton you could certainly make the case that he's value when compared with EE. He's a nice type and a solid sort similar thoughts to EE and TP really except he's a more backable price but not for me.

Part of the reason that I can't have Black Corton is the down to Sizing Tennessee being an even bigger price and I've already covered earlier on the thread on why I threw a few sheckels his way although he's now 20/1.

Beware of the bear, I can still remember his remarkable performance on this day last year over at Newcastle when completely out with the washing came from a mile back to land the spoils. An out and out stayer who we may well not of seen the best of as I think he keeps that for himself but the wind op and first time pieces might be a step towards him picking up a big prize this season. Hendersons Mob it has been well documented are coming out needing the runs so whether you take that into consideration or whether you just as I do think there is a National with the bears name on it at some point somewhere then today might not be the day although I certainly wouldn't want to be seeing him in range when jumping the last here.

Flying Angel I'm just convinced doesn't stay anywhere near this far and I'm never convinced that he's that good anyway seems to of had plenty of chances to follow through on some early promise.

Of the 3 rags I wagered a few sheckels on Allyson Monterg at 33/1 4 places just simply on the basis that I wasn't that impressed with the rest. As unexposed as anything in the field yet actually the performance at the back end of last season at Perth wasn't a million miles away from a figure point of view and the comments "readily" when producing that say o.k we have at least a little something to work with. Won first time up last season in Heavy ground so running off a break doesn't seem an issue, loves soft ground and stays strongly certainly a lot let question marks than some at much skinnier prices I thought it worth a score e/w in a poor contest.

Go conquer is a fairly solid performer and a likleable honest type should run his race and will probably beat at least half of these I'd of thought safe to say I doubt he's well enough handicapped to win though.

West approach looked a lot more like it fto this season then never went the gallop when dropped back in trip next time out overall hard to fancy for this but with so many negatives about most of the field I wouldn't rule anything out.

The one I haven't dealt with is Miss parfois she's sort of the one from the front of the market that I'd fear most really. Although you could say matched fairly closely with Black Corton and EE which is true but I thought her last 2 performances were her best and especially considering that when close up to Terrefort at Aintree that was coming after a grueler in the 4miler which nearly killed the half beaten to death Rathvinden who'd just got the better of her on that occasion. So they were some performances imo, she's slightly bigger price than the other pair with a slightly better chance.

I have two main concerns with her really one would be she hasn't had a prep (not good) but has had a racecourse gallop so maybe not so bad. The other thing that is a bit outside of the box thinking is that Honeyball was raided for substances just before the National last year and then subsequently withdrew Regal Encore. I'm just wondering if he was juicing a few of his up and he's had to stop for a while whether that Miss Parfois might not be the same horse this season I doubt that is the case but it was just in the back of my mind.

Overall if Sizing Tennessee was to put in a decent round of jumping then he's in with more than a shout of winning this. Allyson Monterg is an interesting outsider and if Miss Parfois has started growing a penis then she's probably a safe bet.

Good luck lads.
Last edited by broadsword; Today at 08:34 AM.
 
Nice write up, Danny - good to see you back.

Imo, Black Corton's Charle Hall run was indicative of improvement this season and, given that was no more than a warm-up, and he'll improve again for this stiffer test, I couldn't have him out of the first 4 today.
 
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Watching the Opening Show this morning and all the negativity surrounding the [lack of] quality in today's race, don't we get this kind of stuff before most Hennessys?

I think most people are missing the point.

What the Hennessy was always famous for was discovering which second-season chasers have improved the most. Now and again we just get a well-handicapped established horse (as often as not when a well-fancied second-season type doesn't finish). It seems gone are the days of the likes of Teeton Mill, a hunter making the grade.

Looking at my own figures and what I'd expect from the race, it is chock full of potential class: Black Corton, Elegant Escape, American (ran in the Gold Cup), Thomas Patrick (on form with Elegant Escape) and Ms Parfois (already a Grade 1 winner too), Flying Angel (Grade 1 winner), West Approach (a 157 hurdler back in the day) and The Young Master (9lbs lower than when winning the Whitbread and seemingly back in form).

And that list might not even contain the winner.

The race isn't about current form. What was the last winner to simply have been in good current form?

Regardless of the result, the form of this race is always good, sometimes too good in the sense that it can bottom the principals.
 
That's a fair point D.O and i agree with the point that talent doesn't really look there until after it's emerged but its very hard to see where it emerges from. If you put Black Corton as having potential ? For what ? As a National horse ? Its rare you'd have a second season Novice coming to the table with 14 Chase starts under his belt it would be even rarer that after that many starts having not put up a real top class figure at any point that you don't have a realistic idea about the cieling to his ability wouldn't it ? Albeit he may improve for a step up in trip at some point. The representetives of the RSA form are the 3rd and 5th and realistically had Al boum Photo stood up then that would have made them 4th and 6th best novices of last term. Its always going to be dissapointing if the winner or at least maybe the second of that race doesn't turn up here. Terrefort was the Aintree winner also not here. No horse from the Punchestown 3 mile novice race. In fact no Irish who tend to have the majority of the best horses anyway. And the Gold cup representative American was 9th beaten 60 odd lengths although has only had 6 chase starts so it could be argued he may have more potential than the likes of. Black Corton ,having said that I'm not meaning to put a negative spin on Black Corton he's a nice type and holds his chance today but I'd be very surprised if he's much better than what he's shown already. You can't dress it up as anything other than a poor renewal. Is there one that could be a superstar in amongst them ? It'd have to win by a bloody long way for that to a possibility.

Oh and just to add the last winner to have been in good current form was Total recall last year as was the second Whisper neither looked particularly well Handicapped beforehand although TR could have possibly been anything had he been raised something like 18lb or something daft going into it ? My memory is terrible.
 
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Should be a decent race. Soft. Good.- soft. The last time I checked. Will be an interesting race.
 
Danny said:
That's a fair point D.O and i agree with the point that talent doesn't really look there until after it's emerged but its very hard to see where it emerges from. If you put Black Corton as having potential ? For what ? As a National horse ? Its rare you'd have a second season Novice coming to the table with 14 Chase starts under his belt it would be even rarer that after that many starts having not put up a real top class figure at any point that you don't have a realistic idea about the cieling to his ability wouldn't it ? Albeit he may improve for a step up in trip at some point. The representetives of the RSA form are the 3rd and 5th and realistically had Al boum Photo stood up then that would have made them 4th and 6th best novices of last term. Its always going to be dissapointing if the winner or at least maybe the second of that race doesn't turn up here. Terrefort was the Aintree winner also not here. No horse from the Punchestown 3 mile novice race. In fact no Irish who tend to have the majority of the best horses anyway. And the Gold cup representative American was 9th beaten 60 odd lengths although has only had 6 chase starts so it could be argued he may have more potential than the likes of. Black Corton ,having said that I'm not meaning to put a negative spin on Black Corton he's a nice type and holds his chance today but I'd be very surprised if he's much better than what he's shown already. You can't dress it up as anything other than a poor renewal. Is there one that could be a superstar in amongst them ? It'd have to win by a bloody long way for that to a possibility.

Oh and just to add the last winner to have been in good current form was Total recall last year as was the second Whisper neither looked particularly well Handicapped beforehand although TR could have possibly been anything had he been raised something like 18lb or something daft going into it ? My memory is terrible.
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When he raced Definitly Red, Black Corton might not have been 100% ready and don't forget the terrible blunder he made. That form alone suggested he had improved a fair bit over the summer and there's every reason to believe he's better still. He's ended up NIcholls's only runner from four which included Present Man (won the Badger) and Clan Des Obeaux (who ran so well in the Betfair). If he reckons BC is better handicapped than either of them his opinion has to be taken seriously. I wouldn't be at all surprised if BC finds another 7lbs from last time.

Sure, Total Recall was in good form in that he had won a race already but had already shown himself to be well handicapped and the form he showed here was in another league again.

I'm strongly of the opinion that regardless of how 'poor' this race may look in advance, nowadays it never works out anything other than a very hot race. The prize money ensures as much.
 
Well done Sizing followers.good run from Dingo.my american was a complete joke.ground against the young master.
Winner was impressive.
 
Danny said:
I've read a few posts today but haven't really got the time to pass comment so apologies. This is the first race I've really cast my eye over in a while and at the prices I'd have to say Sizing Tennessee is the stand out he's now around 16's generally after all the withdrawals.
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Back with a bang and a half, Danny. Brilliant winner. Really chuffed for you!

Great run for Marble from Dingo in third too.

It was, as I'd anticipated, a proper race. No hiding places. No messing about. No let up on the pace.

It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does. Take out the winner and we'd be raving about Elegant Escape.

I think someone else gave ST a good mensh earlier in the thread so well done too to whoever that was / they were.
 
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Cheers Des funnily enough this is a race I've always struggled with so it means a bit more to find the winner.
 
Horrible day. I had Thomas Patrick in a trixie with BDM from last week both at 8s
I had Elegant Escape in a trixie at 6s with 'harry from yesterday and I had Ms Parfois at 12s.
Beaten by a horse who couldn't jump last year.
I tell you what though, lesson learned so that's a positive to take out.
I'm not backing horses from no mark trainers in big races again (Thomas Patrick) and I will strictly avoid ones having their first run of the season from more Championship level handlers (Ms Parfois)
 
Horrible day for me too. Not even a place with the bizarre performance of American pretty much summing it up.


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I really do wonder what the handicapper will do with this race. He didn't raise Elegant Escape for winning at Sandown and with Thomas Patrick out of it from the home turn, the fact that the winner was a seemingly exposed 10yo and so many seemingly not getting home in the ground, he might only raise the winner about 7lbs, in which case he'd be one to have onside in the National. I fear it will more likely be double that, though.

A couple of years ago Native River got into the Welsh National without a penalty. Does anyone know if ST will do likewise?
 
The ground really turned very soft by lunchtime, was not nice ground at all. Nothing was coming from behind at all and all finishing very tired.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I really do wonder what the handicapper will do with this race. He didn't raise Elegant Escape for winning at Sandown and with Thomas Patrick out of it from the home turn, the fact that the winner was a seemingly exposed 10yo and so many seemingly not getting home in the ground, he might only raise the winner about 7lbs, in which case he'd be one to have onside in the National. I fear it will more likely be double that, though.
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Looks like he's found an argument for taking the middle ground. 11lbs is the rise. Elegant Escape is up 4lbs.

Don't be surprised if Chapman starts whingeing at the weekend, "Raised 4lbs for being beaten 10 lengths?! What is the handicapper playing at?!" or words to that effect...
 
Some interesting figures emerging for me...

Watching the races I was sure both the Hennessy and the closing Jim Joel were very fast-run and in such situations it's always useful to spend some time seeing what the times say.

If we assume the short race was true-run (the form book says Dicosimo "led at str pace") and Lady Buttons's raw time matches her new OR (149), then Sizing Tennessee has run a time rating of 166. Small wonder, then, that Tizzard was reported later as saying, "If entries were tomorrow I'd put him in the Gold Cup." That rating would put him not far off Native River although the handicapper has gone conservatively with 159. He has Elegant Escape running to his penalised mark of 155, effectively raising him 4lbs. Dingo Dollar is left alone on 148.

Sizing Tennessee was 35lbs faster than Santini.

The original comparison, however, may be tenuous. Lady Buttons was raised 9lbs but the runner-up, Shear Rock, was only raised one pound for being beaten just over two lengths. The winner hacked up obviously but times don't allow for ease of victory so perhaps any calculation is predicated ona false premise and perhaps Lady Buttons's time rating should be dropped about 7lbs, which would knock on to both Sizing Tennessee and Santini.

I'll try and get a look at the Fighting Fifth later. The Hoops are on duty...
 
It's meaningless in the context because it doesn't show up Santini's true ability. His race was nowhere near as strongly run.

What I'll try and do is time both races from the starting point in Santini's race. The time for the final mile might be more informative.
 
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