The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Newbury Sat Dec 1st

They wanted it very soft for Don Poli, who was scratched today. Any ground conditions updates let us know, DG.
 
Euronymous said:
Really don't get the fuss over Dingo Dollar. Surely a potential winner of this race wins that handicap at Ayr and wins it well.
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Listen, you'd get the fuss if you tipped him to all and sundry at 25's three weeks ago. :)
 
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GOING UPDATE: The Hurdle Course is Soft /Good to soft in places and the Chase Course is Good to soft/Soft in places. We have had 6.9mm of rain in the last 24 hours
 
Kemboy 9/2 join fav with some bookies, I'm literally amazed. I thought it would be 7 or 8/1. I was going to lay for a place but if I could lay at 5.0 on the exchange I think I might do it. I'm just convinced it won't stay strongly over the 3miles with so many proven highly rated stayers in the race.
 
I'm gutted, but it's the the right decision to protect the horse. I'm only 15 miles down the road so will probably still go, but feel for anyone booked to travel over from Ireland...
 
Well, we don't know if he'd have stayed 3m2f although Willie thinks he will. We don't know if he'd have jumped a clear round.

What we do know is that, officially, he was one of the best horses in the race and that Willie clearly thought that he was better handicapped than all his other entries.

A real shame because there are so few opportunities for him in the calendar. If he doesn't go for the Durkan it looks like one of the Christmas G1s.
 
Grasshopper said:
You reckon Flying Angel will get home, DO? Has looked at non-stayer both times at 3m+ trips.
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I wouldn't read too much into his runs last season, GH. I'm not convinced he was ever right. Obviously he has his stamina to prove and there isn't any racecourse evidence that he will stay but he's got Monsun and Roselier in his pedigree so I'd be very hopeful, that's all. at 33/1 I'm prepared to pay to find out, especially since I've suspected since I did my first trawl that he'd be the stable number one ahead of Go Conquer who almost certainly will stay (but might not now have his ground) and is very well handicapped on his best form.
 
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I've read a few posts today but haven't really got the time to pass comment so apologies. This is the first race I've really cast my eye over in a while and at the prices I'd have to say Sizing Tennessee is the stand out he's now around 16's generally after all the withdrawals.

First time out last season he ran Black Corton close at levels next time out it seemed like he was about to power away from that rival in receipt of 8lb how far he'd have won I don't know but I'm fairly sure he was going to by a fair way. It looked to me that he'd improved from first run to second run. First time out this year he's put up a decent win and a decent figure over what may be a trip that's going to prove short of his best and he really galloped well through the line. Other bits and pieces of his form may suggest he's not a bad sort off the top of my head I think he was second in the grade 2 dipper. Put a decent effort in in the close brothers ? at the festival before putting a decent effort in in the 4 miler a couple of days later where he was leading most the way and only really faded in the latter stages of that contest and still held on for third.

This trip falls in the middle of his Cheltenham efforts and might just be right up his street. He's match fit and shown himself to be in good order with the figure he's produced fto if he can improve on that then he'll give this lot plenty to think about. The only real negative I can see is that his jumping is a bit sketchy certainly not what you'd want around here for this contest but with a smaller field than you'd normally expect he might not come under as much pressure for the lead and he might be a bit harder to pass for the likes of the well fancied Miss parfois ( hasn't had the benefit of a prep ) at 3m2f than he was in the 4 miler. He already has looked like he had the beating of Black Corton at this trip on a 1lb worse terms and thats not a bloody bad yard stick Imo.

With a clear round he'll go close I'm sure but if he doesn't then you can just put it down to the fact that I'm a little ring rusty after 6 months out of the game.

I feel for the connections of Kemboy but not too much as that looks like a lovely sort you have on your hands hopefully some good days ahead.

Glad to be back fellas hope you're all very well and winning.
 
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To be fair we have had some decent winners in recent tears but this year looks somewhat ordinary.

I can see no reason Why Black Corton can't be right in the mix here.

He was beaten by a very good horse in Definitely Red and I see nothing of that caliber in here

Top Weight or not I reckon supporting him ew at 14/1 plus a bit on the place (4) market should reap a profit
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't read too much into his runs last season, GH. I'm not convinced he was ever right. Obviously he has his stamina to prove and there isn't any racecourse evidence that he will stay but he's got Monsun and Roselier in his pedigree so I'd be very hopeful, that's all. at 33/1 I'm prepared to pay to find out, especially since I've suspected since I did my first trawl that he'd be the stable number one ahead of Go Conquer who almost certainly will stay (but might not now have his ground) and is very well handicapped on his best form.
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The market has really found it now. The result doesn't matter. This could go off 12/1.
 
3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y
15/16 – Aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
14/16 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
12/16 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/16 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
10/16 – Rated between 140 and 151
10/16 – Had a previous run that season
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (27 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old
 
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