The Next President?

Originally posted by clivex@Jun 4 2008, 10:57 AM
But why wouldnt Hilary help take southern states? Its her manor isnt it?

Or are you still digging into sterotyped idea that the south will only elect white males?
I'll take a break from the Coronation Cup having just satisfied myself of the 1-2, in order to go over my thinking on this.

Not unlike the UK, with it's North/ South divide, there is no definitive official boundaries that demarcates the various sub-regions of the United States, but they exist in perceptions and have altered in line with demographic shifts and the various historical and cultural influences that have been brought to bear on the states in question. 'The South' still broadly conforms with the confederate states but as population has shifted from the industrial north to the post industrial south (especially retirees in Florida and economic migrants to Texas) subtle changes have occured.

Most definitions you'll find about the areas include the 'Deep South' and the 'Upper South'. The deep South remains pretty well stereotyped Republican country and includes Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Carolina's (although North Carolina is often bracketed as the upper south). In any event, Clinton couldn't win one of these states amongst Democrat voters. Once Republicans are thrown into the mix, she'd have no chance of bringing anything to the party.

Texas and Florida are geographically of the same region, although culturally they tend to be seen as appendages given that they are essentially less (how can we put this?) perhaps I'll try for 'more open to outside influences and less traditional'. She did of course win Texas, but neither Democrat would reasonably expect to come November. Florida as ever, will remain the key state amongst the swing states, given it's contribution to the college. It's difficult to know if Hilary would have won there? The consensus is that she would, and she's counting their votes in her claim to have won the popular vote, but Obama never campaigned there, and it was a marked feature of all the caucauses and primaries that Obama was frequently chasing down, and over-taking Clinton leads, once he got going.

The states she won in the South were largely in the 'upper south' Arkansas for historical reasons and personal affiliations and Tennessee. You might add Oklahomo to the list as its sometimes considered an upper south state but tends to owe the assignation to an historical quirk that banded the land that is now known as Oklahoma into a kind of 'bad land' area that was loosely allied to the confederacy, by the same token, even Maryland is sometimes considered a southern state (which strikes me as being bizarre).

The Democrats will need to gain some of the southern states, and might face a slightly different dynamic this time round, given that McCain is a northern candidate who might yet represent the acceptable face of Republicanism. To some extent Hilary is regarded as a northern establishment figure, and not really an Arkansas person. She's essentially a Washington figure with a New York senate seat. Obama can obviously trade off his Illinois background, but it was notable that she tended to beat him in the traditional 'blue collar' vote in the nortern states. To some extent, he's going to need someone who can seal this gap for him, and there wouldn't be many obvious candidates.

He might risk taking the blue collar vote for granted? (would they vote for McCain?) or he might need someone who can reach out to the traditional democrat core vote, as well as being acceptable to the South? For his part Obama will bring the under 35's to the party, and the black vote. You might argue that Hilary would appeal to the female vote? but given the choice between Obama and McCain, I'd suspect that he's no less likely to be able to deliver this block too. His glaring weakness is in the South, and there's little if any evidence that Clinton can bring much to the party, although it wouldn't require much on the round of results, and somewhere like Arkansas might be enough yet. She was notably stronger in other battleground states though like Pensylvania and Ohio and this suggests that she still carries the blue collar traditional democrat voter, and that he hasn't quite taken this territory from her. I have little doubt that she could deliver this vote, but she's not the only Democrat who could either.

You might of course argue that neither candidate would win the deep south, and that Obama's lead over Clinton there is tantamount to inconsequential? (she does) and in fairness I wouldn't really disagree. Following that line therefore, he needs someone who can win the upper south, or at least achieve a degree of parity, whilst still doing enough to shore up the core vote.

For practical purposes I really don't see how he could have her as a VP, and I think there'd be a very real prospect of having two administrations emerging norty . We've seen splits in UK parties before, but I can't think of a case where an American VP has sort to puruse their own programme. This could easily happen on this ticket. My God, she was bad enough when she became first lady, heaven knows what she'd think she had a mandate to do if she was an official number 2 norty
 
Originally posted by clivex@Jun 4 2008, 12:00 PM
Yes Clivex...............but as we have said before................he refers to the State of Israel, and not the Jewish population...........................and for genocide to take place, it needs to be committed against a race - not a State......................ergo, it isn't genocide that he is proposing.................it is the end of the State of Israel.

I think that given the present circumstances and as he knows full well, one cannot be achieved without the other
Exactly.

So what is more likely?

That he acquires his nukes, and immediately orders a pre-emptive strike against Israel, in the knowledge that retaliation would be full and total?

Or that he falls into line with all the other Middle Eastern states, and accepts Israel's right to exist - a right that even Saudi Arabia has acknowledged?

I strongly suspect that the latter viewpoint will prevail, but how do we collectively drag him to that perspective? Again, my suspicion is that the path of least resistance - indeed the only viable path - is to open a dialogiue with him/Iran.

If diplomatic overtures are made, and he rejects them out of hand, then he would have his arse served to him on a plate by the Iranian electorate. To isolate him, only bolsters all his arguments.
 
Originally posted by Sheikh@Jun 4 2008, 12:08 PM
There no change of leadership in Syria .Assad is a butcher he just wants the UN cash.
Hardly the point though, is it Sheihk, given that all dictators are butchers to a greater or lesser extent.

And, personally speaking, I think it's appropriate pragmatism to offer some carrots, if it helps remove his stick.

Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that progress is being made with Syria, on the back of dialogue rather than isolationism.
 
I agree, talking is the only way to make progress, you don't have to look too far to see that talking is the key. If you de-humanise people and refuse to talk it can only end in violence.

I was merely pointing out that Clive was wrong again.
 
Sheikh

Perhaps you ought to just check your facts a little before you start stating that i am "wrong again"

Assad took over from his Father (who was a nasty peiece of work) in 2001


If you de-humanise people and refuse to talk it can only end in violence

Complete rubbish. since when has no diplomatic relations been "de humanising"?

Appeasement ends in violence too ...as we know
 
clivex, in your view, is the apparently improved relationship with Syria appeasement, or pragmatic diplomacy??
 
And, personally speaking, I think it's appropriate pragmatism to offer some carrots, if it helps remove his stick.

And i dont. A stance has to be taken at a certain point and the announcement that the intention is the obliterate one of your allies is beyond that line in the sand

The loyalty should also be to your allies first and foremost and it is not hard to imagine what Israels view of "dialogue" with this regime would be
 
Syria, under this leadership, has not made the statements that have come out of Iran

They have stirred up much trouble of course but are not seeking nuclear weapons or implying that they would use them in a unilateral attack
 
Gee Clive, your right of course, a complete change of leadership from Daddy Butcher to Junior.

Your other comment on that post is just too idiotic to respond to.
 
From that long reply Warbler, it strikes me that Clinton would be an aid in winning the winnable seats in the south?
 
Gee Clive, your right of course, a complete change of leadership from Daddy Butcher to Junior.


Yes i am right. Hurt did it?

So breaking off diplomatic realtions with Mugabe has "dehumanised" the MDC has it?
 
You having a laugh, clivex?

More than anything, Israel wants peace with all of it's neighbours. Furthermore, it acknowledges that dialogue is crucial in attaining it.

Syria wants to have direct peace negotiations with Israel, and has even asked the US to sponsor the talks. Israel has no objections to these talks taking place - despite the long history of emnity between the two countries - though they are admittedly (and understandably) cautious about rushing into them.

This is yet more evidence of the desire for dialogue on the part of the main players in the Middle East.

It seems that it's only hawks and dinosaurs (which are you? :P ) that prefer the discredited and futile isolationist route.
 
What?

Thats in line with what im saying. Dialogue is possible with the younger Assad because of the change in that states position, which is currently miles away from Irans (and was probably no where near as extreme in the first place)
 
FFS.............we're getting into a chickens and sodding eggs argument now.

Iran has already accepted an invitation by the US for direct ambassadorial-level talks to be held in Baghdad, so the dialogue is already underway. Hopefully Obama (if he is elected) can take it to the next, entirely logical, level.

Seems even the Yanks can see the benefit of engaging with the Iranians.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Jun 4 2008, 12:13 PM
He might risk taking the blue collar vote for granted? (would they vote for McCain?) or he might need someone who can reach out to the traditional democrat core vote, as well as being acceptable to the South?
If he does take the blue-collar vote for granted, he will lose this election. Simple as that IMO. Hillary's core base of support are older, blue collar white workers who primarily have relatively low education levels. I think there is a very strong risk that a number of these will defect to John McCain is their vote not shored up.

The notion that Obama has to carry the "deep south" is simply not true.

I think Hillary would form a powerful team with Obama were she to become the VP. However, everything I have heard suggests she does not want the job. They (Clinton and Obama) are meeting tonight.

Really enjoying the banter from our two middle-eastern affairs experts BTW. :P
 
Obama's speech on the radio now would have the leftish jew baiters (i can just see Livingstones face) seething......

The only summit hes going to have with Iran is to tell them to get out in 10 minutes or israel will turn it into a car park

Great stuff

Anyway, there is a world of difference between contact at that level and official presidential summits. Iran's rhetoric needs to back down before the first moves are made

Dialogue with the idiot now would be the equivalent of inviting Pol Pot to the Queens garden party. :suspect:
 
Originally posted by clivex@Jun 4 2008, 02:46 PM
Obama's speech on the radio now would have the leftish jew baiters (i can just see Livingstones face) seething......
Would the rightish jew baiters be upset too, clivex?
 
Neither Democrat will win in the deep south, but will have prospects of carrying the upper south, or Florida in particular. Hilary's own showing there wasn't too good, Obama tended to beat her, but even if she could take Arkansas and Oklahoma it still wouldn't turn round the 2004 result.

For the serious anoraks amongst you, I couldn't resist the following link. It illustrates just how much of a different environment the 'deep south' is though, but Texas has gone Democrat more recently than I realised.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States...l_election_maps

Actually, it's moderately interesting to see what happens to the Democrat vote in the south when they have someone on the ticket.

Johnson - Texan
Carter - Georgian
Clinton - Arkansas (quasi south)
 
QUOTE (clivex @ Jun 4 2008, 02:46 PM)
Obama's speech on the radio now would have the leftish jew baiters (i can just see Livingstones face) seething......



Would the rightish jew baiters be upset too, clivex?

Yes but Obama is unlikely to be their hero

I think he has many qualities (although Michael foot was a fine orator too :what: ) but one of the reasons hes unequivocally supported by many on the left is simply because of his colour

Whatever happens, he doesnt scare me in the way Bush has/does or Mccain might (although i sense not). Thye could both be quite good quality candidates
 
I think that's an inaccurate assessment myself, clivex.

I think the reason Obama is over-arching reason he is supported on the left, is due to him making it very clear he represents a totally clean break from the policies of the recent GOP administrations. Additionally (insofar as his rhetoric goes), he represents a new and untried kind of politics, that wants to move away from the interest-group, cosy-up Washington of the past couple of decades, and if the polls in the US are anything to go by, that's exactly what the vast majority of US citizens want to see.

To suggest a large part of his popularity is due to the novelty factor of his skin colour is, I feel, to denigrate the vast majority of people who legitimately feel he is the best candidate out there - something perhaps backed-up by your own apparent Damascan conversion from calling him "windbag" in the early days of the Primary season, to your current position of conceding that he has "many qualities".

Sometimes, if it looks like a duck, and quacks like it duck, it is indeed a President-in-waiting.
 
I have to say, while the whole world's media has been watching in on this for the last few months almost laughing at the two democratic candidates and their bitch fighting as if it was one big tedious joke, i've actually been worried (as a brit) that whoever gets the job, and you can bring Mccain into that aswell, could be so inept for the job that something major happens under their leadership (I feel that's more likely to happen to someone like Obama who wants a policy u-turn in Iraq when according to the generals their actually getting on top of the terrorists).

The ideal scenario for me would be for absoloutley nothing to happen for the new president in their 4/8 years in office, no wars, no economic change, no nothing, because i'm scared shitless the next president is going to be another Bush; Infact, if I could just freeze political time in America for the next 4/8 years I probably would, as I feel a lot of people have been overwhelmed by puppet candidates either running because essentially their misfits, esteemed housewives or keepers of the holy war in Bagdad. Take Obama for example, he's been portayed as trying to make it in a "whites for whites" society, and to my eyes almost looks like being popular because he is essentially a misfit. Whether he'd make a good Lenny in a film remake of "mice and men" like George Bush is another matter, but despite what has been noted as his "charisma" I fail to see confidence in him, something which the man should have in himself if he intends on a eight year preaching session.

Does anyone seriously take any of these policy announcements towards Iran by both Hillary and Obama seriously? It's all coming across as one big stunt to me, more like a joke actually, and the fact they've talked about Hillary as a potential vice president just sums it all up, not plausible. I hope i'm wrong, and if Obama does make it and does well I will feel dignified by the fact he will be the first Black American president ever, but if it goes wrong I have a gut feeling i'll end up saying to myself "if this man was white he'd of had no chance of beating Hillary". It's a tough call and one which i'm prepared to revise in future, but as a betting man I know he's odds on to win and therefore deep down I wish him all the best and I hope he dispells my fears through being strong and not relenting.
 
Originally posted by Grasshopper@Jun 4 2008, 09:24 PM
Sometimes, if it looks like a duck, and quacks like it duck, it is indeed a President-in-waiting.
:D

Being reported by ABC tonight that Clinton will officially pack it in on Friday. Meanwhile, Obama has set up an advisory committee to help with his VP choice that includes Caroline Kennedy and Jim Johnson.

McCain's stance on Iran is both idiotic and naive. As has been said before, by completely isolating Iran the problem is being compounded rather than alleviated. This is merely a continuation of the Bush doctrine (i.e. you're either with us or you're against us) that has already proved disastrous.

One point I would take you up on, Clive, is that which you made about Ahmadinejad being more threatening in his rhetoric than Hitler. That might well be true, but it completely overlooks the fact that Hitler openly announced that Germany was rearming in violation of the Treaty of Versailles in 1935, invaded the Rhineland in 1936 (while GB and France were engaged in a pissing match over Ethiopia), pursued an Anschluss with Austria in 1937 and finally invaded the Sudetenland in 1938. Talk about a fairly clear signal of bellicose amibtions. Of course the policy of appeasement overlooked this.

Do Iran's actions (or lack thereof) bear any comparison to this? Does their ambitions or their means bear any comparison? Comparing Obama's policies of "tough diplomacy" with Chamberlain's appeasement policy is absolutely ridiculous. The irony of it all is that it is being seized by McCain to demonstrate Obama's supposed naivety (as well as to exploit the opportunity that seems to have presented itself to tap the Jewish vote).
 
My understanding is that a deal is being struck

Hilary offered a dignified way out, in return for an endorsement.

I'll be interested to see how she pulls this off
 
To suggest a large part of his popularity is due to the novelty factor of his skin colour is, I feel, to denigrate the vast majority of people who legitimately feel he is the best candidate out there - something perhaps backed-up by your own apparent Damascan conversion from calling him "windbag" in the early days of the Primary season, to your current position of conceding that he has "many qualities".

Since when do a "vast majority" of people thinks hes the "best "candidate. He scraped in didnt he? Hes not steaming ahead in the national polls either

Since when has a democratic candidate received the nomination at such a late stage and by such a small majority?

My opinion of him has changed slightly ...no more. He is guilty of some poor judgement and is seemingly naive when away from the script. His refusal to take questions form the press without prior briefing was indicative of a lack of confidence at best and his past cosying up to extremists pastors is little different to a white politician haveing connections to the KKK IMO


Trackside ...i would agree to an extent, but arming up with conventional weapons is one thing and getting a nuclear device is another. the risk is that we are in a world where an exteme regime can inflict enormous damage quickly and relatively easily. thats not to say it will happen but the presidents comments have to linked to his desire to have nuclear weapons
 
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