The Non-Triers Thread

Already on. UTPT is two stone better than stablemate Vieux Lion Rouge who has run well for four miles in the race more than once.

I still think the big danger will be Noble Endeavor.
 
I've just realised UTPT (and maybe NE too) will need to win a three-mile chase to qualify for the National, won't they?

I imagine connections will be poring over the book to look for soft targets that won't affect ratings.
 
I want to look again at most of the races (will do over the next couple of days) but a couple of candidates for the thread immediately spring to mind.

At Haydock, I thought Cliffs Of Dover got a strange ride, held up off a moderate pace and rushed up the outside on the back straight before the jockey appeared to me to but the brakes on quite suddenly rounding the bend. Maybe that was to avoid being carried wide but he quickly appeared to accept that any chance had gone and allowed the horse to come home in his own time. Incidentally, in the same race my main bet was on Ch'Tibello. He appeared to be allowed to drop back from a reasonable early position and was in trouble in the back straight. This run was far removed from the animal that was touted as a Champion Hurdle candidate a couple of seasons back. I presume there is a problem of some sort or maybe they are just trying to get his mark right down for Newbury in February. Having seen the race again, I'm not so sure about John Constable being a non-trier. It was maybe too early to judge when he came down as he was lobbing along.

At Ascot, I wouldn't have been happy if I'd backed Benatar. I didn't think he was good enough to be competitive in this race but if he was going to have a shout in last week's Mackeson you'd have thought he'd have been closer to the principals. He appeared to me to be prepping for something. Maybe the Massey-Ferguson?
 
Skelton and the owner said before the season started that they'd had a lot of issues with Chtibello and were wondering whether to bring him back in at all.
 
Ch'tibello is thoroughly exposed: That's the problem. He will need to drop 10lb in the handicap just to win a class 3, let alone the big handicap in February at Newbury.
 
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Bonjers said:
Skelton and the owner said before the season started that they'd had a lot of issues with Chtibello and were wondering whether to bring him back in at all.
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He's got a problem with his landing leg. Zero chance he ever jumps a fence.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I want to look again at most of the races (will do over the next couple of days) but a couple of candidates for the thread immediately spring to mind.

in the same race my main bet was on Ch'Tibello. He appeared to be allowed to drop back from a reasonable early position and was in trouble in the back straight. This run was far removed from the animal that was touted as a Champion Hurdle candidate a couple of seasons back. I presume there is a problem of some sort or maybe they are just trying to get his mark right down for Newbury in February. Having seen the race again,
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Think 2016...
 
Absolutely. By March he'll have a winning mark for the Count Hurdle and probably to back it up at Aintree! I've zero doubt they're messing around with him. If the wheels had come off he'd have already gone through the sale ring.
 
I can't have this. Ch'tibello has won over 200 grand in prize money. He owes connections nothing. So the idea they'd just sell him off when he loses his form is incorrect. However, he is out of form and this cycle can take months if not years to change. The idea he should be top of anyone's list as an anti post fancy for anything this season is bonkers. There are loads of other interesting horses for these races. Ch'tibello is not one.
 
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Lot of categories here.

Some get stopped, some are run unfit, some are run at the wrong trip and some are run like one yesterday who allegedly burst a blood vessel in training but they ran him anyway because it was a valuable prize.

There's 2 problems with stopping one.....1. He has to be good enough to stop in the first place.

2. Stopping one that is good enough to stop is so obvious you end up getting crap odds.

The smart trainer runs them 5 canters short of a gallop then blames fences when they run like a pig....Sorry NJH joking
 
Marble said:
I can't have this. Ch'tibello has won over 200 grand in prize money. He owes connections nothing. So the idea they'd just sell him off when he loses his form is incorrect. However, he is out of form and this cycle can take months if not years to change. The idea he should be top of anyone's list as an anti post fancy for anything this season is bonkers. There are loads of other interesting horses for these races. Ch'tibello is not one.
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Why not? There's a difference between losing form and having an underlying problem. Read between the lines. You said it yourself he's won 200k and owes connections nothing. Depending on the mind of the owner he'd either go through the sales ring or be retired if there was a fundamental problem.
 
I reckon they'll give him until at least the end of the season, Paul. I just can't see him being laid out for anything, I really can't, but if I am proved wrong, I will happily eat humble pie. The Skelton yard have the young and progressive, Solomon Grey, for starters, who we were chatting about before The Festival last March, where he eventually didn't take up his entry, in The County, (the Skelton's landed it with Mohaayed). Solomon Grey finished third behind Ifthecapfits last December. Hence, I am much more interested in a horse such as Solomon Grey on a rating of 135, than I am about Ch'tibello. Each to own though mate, I agree to disagree.:)
 
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But this is all guess work, Slim. You need to know something is well handicapped, to win a big handicap hurdle, not merely be guessing that it might happen sometime in the future
Marble said:
I am much more interested in a horse such as Solomon Grey on a rating of 135, than I am about Ch'tibello.
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How many lengths was Solomon Grey behind Ifthecapfits again? What is Ifthecapfits rated now? My point being, overwhelming evidence tells me Solomon Grey is one hell of a well-handicapped horse on 135. If the Skelton yard have Solomon Grey fit, and ready-to-roll this season, he will win a Tote Trophy or a County Hurdle. Mark my words. Provided they don't go novice chasing..
 
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Marble said:
Ch'tibello is thoroughly exposed: That's the problem. He will need to drop 10lb in the handicap just to win a class 3, let alone the big handicap in February at Newbury.
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Yep! Ch'tibello is the epitome of a horse not good enough to be stopping because even Harry wouldn't know when he'll win. He'' go Kingwell again I suspect..good money with only a few runners then he'll go to Ayr again and hopes it rains
 
Jesus lads. You can't expect me to post the exact plan for the horse can you. It's an internet forum. You've all missed bar DO who is very warm.
 
I haven't missed it all thanks Slim. The only thing is which double they want a mark for. Spring double or Newbury/Cheltenham.
 
Going back to last weekend, Kalondra drifted from a morning price of 5/2-3/1 to a SP of 6/1. Was then switched off out wide/towards rear and never really put into it.

Hard to say it was a non-trier as such but it was clearly a run intended to gain confidence in his jumping following succesive falls. Which didn't work by the way, as despite getting round his jumping was still pretty shabby. How much that can be contributed to the stiff fences is hard to quantify.
 
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