The Oaks

simmo

simmo

Senior Jockey
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Mar 4, 2004
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some "which trial is best" data from the past 25 years or so for The Oaks.

[TABLE="width: 430"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1st[/TD]
[TD]2nd[/TD]
[TD]3rd[/TD]
[TD]4th[/TD]
[TD]worse[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I1000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pretty Polly[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Blue Wind[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swettenham[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HoF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Musidora[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lingfield[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cheshire[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Derrinstown[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody><colgroup><col><col span="2"><col><col span="2"></colgroup>[/TABLE]
 
It looks like Skiffle is going to be supplemented and run, irrespective of whether or not Minding does.

She's surely got to start quite a bit shorter than the 12s currently on offer.
 
gus said:
It looks like Skiffle is going to be supplemented and run, irrespective of whether or not Minding does.

She's surely got to start quite a bit shorter than the 12s currently on offer.
Click to expand...

You'd think so, and given the way that the Oaks has played out over the years, with favourites being turned over with regularity, I'd be keen to take Minding on even if she does run.
 
BALLYDOYLE, the second favourite for the Investec Oaks, will miss the Epsom Classic, trainer Aidan O'Brien has revealed.
Royal Ascot or Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly next month is set to be the next port of call for Ballydoyle, who finished an encouraging second to Minding in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.
Ballydoyle, who was a general 4-1 shot for Epsom behind 5-4 chance Minding, was forced to miss the Irish 1,000 Guineas last weekend due to an unsatisfactory blood picture two days before the race.
And O'Brien told the Racing Post on Friday: "Ballydoyle won't be going to Epsom. Her bloods have improved but she wouldn't be ready for the Oaks.
"We have two options for her next month if she continues to progress - the Coronation Stakes or French Oaks."
Minding still in the mix
Minding's bid for the Newmarket-Curragh Classic double was thwarted by Jet Setting last weekend, but she could still end up a dual Classic winner.
Minding, who was beaten a head at the Curragh, was found to have a swelling on the side of her face and a cut on her nostril after banging her head leaving the stalls.
"She's had an easy week and seems to be fine," O'Brien said. "The Oaks is still the plan once everyone is happy with her and with her work early next week."
O'Brien has another leading fancy in Pretty Polly Stakes third Even Song, and Ireland have a very strong hand generally, with Jim Bolger set to run Turret Rocks, who was sixth behind Minding at Newmarket on her reappearance.
Skiffle - who will be supplemented on Saturday subject to pleasing Godolphin in a morning workout - and Lingfield Oaks Trial runner-up Architecture are the leading British-trained hopes according to bookmakers.
The going at Epsom on Friday was good, with showers possible on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday.
 
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Only 9 runners - such a shame So Mi Dar is out . Minding looked imperious at Newmarket and there were valid excuses at the Curragh . The concern is has she recovered in time .
 
Ardross said:
Only 9 runners - such a shame So Mi Dar is out . Minding looked imperious at Newmarket and there were valid excuses at the Curragh . The concern is has she recovered in time .
Click to expand...

That's how I see it too. Ryan Moore was in a very frank mood in the interview he gave in today's RP, where he says Minding's prep is "not ideal" but she's so far ahead of her opposition it might not matter. He also says she should stay, "in this company", a qualification which shows he has been absorbing EC1's dictum about whether a horse stays or not being relative to the opposition.

Speaking of whom, if you're looking in I hope you're keeping well and planning to be back on here soon.
 
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It was dry yesterday. The clerk talks of possible "spits and spats" of rain this lunchtime but if it's basically dry today then the ground should be pretty decent given the track's fast-draining characteristics.

Minding will need to stay the trip. Talk of her "getting away with it" is ridiculous. You only have to go back to last year's race for an example of a filly with a big class advantage getting beat because she didn't quite stay.
 
Just about over the trauma of the Gosden filly not running and cantering off with this.

Don't have a firm view on this now though will side with the Hugo Palmer filly.
 
4.30 - Epsom:
Somehow. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
Harlequeen. 1 pt win. Available at 20/1.
The Oaks has a habit of producing winners from left field and, with the stamina of Minding not cast in stone, this may again be one of those years. If the favourite does stay she is by far the best Filly in the race and should win. However there are horses in opposition who are likely stronger stayers and they be worth a small consideration. Somehow was all at sea at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks but she still managed to prevail and the experience is unlikely to be lost on her. She looks guaranteed to improve and her Dam won this race. She won her second start on heavy ground so conditions won't pose a problem. Harlequeen looked in need of further than the extended ten furlongs over which he was a four and a half length fourth to So Mi Dar at York last time out. She needs to find plenty of improvement to figure in this but that's possible now she steps up to a mile and a half. She has plenty of stats in her favour and the yard have a decent record here.
 
I've been looking for something to take Minding on with since she was declared for the Irish 1000 and even before that I was all over So Mi Dar for this but all said and done I've come to the conclusion that the drift this morning to 6/4 is an acceptable price to take in the face of weak opposition.

Let's just hope that Galileo gene provides as much stamina as has been discussed because there's practically feck all on the dam's side.
 
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Skiffle and Turret Rocks for me. I just don't think Minding will stay. Skiffle is by a sire who has sired Group winners, including at G1 level, over 12f and is out of a Listed 12f winning dam. She should relish the step up in trip, as should the stoutly-bred Turret Rocks. I think the former will have a touch more improvement in her.
 
wilsonl said:
I've been looking for something to take Minding on with since she was declared for the Irish 1000 and even before that I was all over So Mi Dar for this but all said and done I've come to the conclusion that the drift this morning to 6/4 is an acceptable price to take in the face of weak opposition.

Let's just hope that Galileo gene provides as much stamina as has been discussed because there's practically feck all on the dam's side.
Click to expand...

Isn't it the Vaguely Noble family? Been a bit fallow for a few years but he wasn't a bad horse. Admittedly Lillie Langtry seems to have taken after her sire Danehill Dancer but she was out of a Darshaan mare. We'll know what she's inherited just after 4.30.
 
Not a clue Eleanora as I'm no expert but I know there's some Shirley Heights in there and as I said, I'm relying heavily on Galileo weighing in.
 
gus said:
Minding will need to stay the trip. Talk of her "getting away with it" is ridiculous. You only have to go back to last year's race for an example of a filly with a big class advantage getting beat because she didn't quite stay.
Click to expand...

Getting away with it for me, is a reference to how much she could afford to run below form and still win. She's a low 120s miler, where it usually takes a 115/116 effort to win a typical Oaks, I wouldn't be surprised if you could win it this year with slightly less. Therefore I think she could 'get away' with not being as effective at 12f and still win this race. Imagine she'll be in front 2f out anyway, and then it will be an interesting race home from there.
 
An El Gran Señor sort of race ?

It is difficult to tell - although her mother was by Darshaan she was out of a Shadeed mare . Neither Lillie Langtry's dam or grand-dam appear to have run and LL of course never ran over further than a mile .
 
Minding, Skiffle and Turret Rocks are my exacta combo.

Hopefully TR will boost our filly's value no end !!

Fourth dam of Minding is a full sister to Vaguely Noble so spot on Eleanora.!
 
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I sometimes get the feeling that every year a case is made for a classy doubtful stayer in the oaks and derby and every year they fail

Im not convinced at all by the "getting away with it argument". Theres a lot less between horses in these races than some assume perhaps and its suitability to trip that separates one from another

Cant pick the winner. I'm never overly keen on supplemented horses in the belief that if the talent was there it should surely have been worth an entry at an early stage.

Lay Minding looks best bet at prices
 
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