The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Binocular - Stuffed at Punchestown, admittedly in less than perfect conditions.
Grandouet - Yet to face The Hurricane but for me he needed to win the International better than he did for me. On form lines through Overturn and then Binocular, Hurricane Fly has his measure.
Oscar Whisky - Well beaten 3rd in the Champion last year and probably goes for the World Hurdle.
Rock On Ruby - Similar on form to Binocular.
Peddlers Cross - Going for the Arkle but beaten last year.
So Young/Zaidpour/Mikael D'Haguenet - All for Mullins and he knows Hurricane Fly is better than all of them.
Zarkandar - Complete unknown.

The only one I can see as a threat is Zarkandar because we just have absolutely no idea how good he might be. The only thing we do know is that he will need to be exceptional.

On a side note, I think 14/1 NRNB about Peddlers Cross for the Champion Hurdle is a stonking bet. I can't see him running but most likely to come here if, God forbid, something happened to Hurricane Fly. Well worth a cover at the prices.
 
I think 10's about Binocular is the value in the market as it stands. I don't think his best form is that far behind last year's Champion.

I like Oscar Whisky as well, but he would need to have improved significantly to get to Hurricane Fly.

Zarkandar is the fly in the ointment.
 
trackside528 said:
I think 10's about Binocular is the value in the market as it stands. I don't think his best form is that far behind last year's Champion.

I like Oscar Whisky as well, but he would need to have improved significantly to get to Hurricane Fly.

Zarkandar is the fly in the ointment.
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This is about right.

Binocular at his best is the rating equivalent of HF. Or put another way HF at his best is the equivalent of Binocular.

Oscar Whisky at seven is better than he was at six. Watch out!

Zarkandar will be very good, next year best for that one... and I speak as one who tipped him for the Triumph (a race I rarely have a bet in) at 10/1.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
This is going to sound crazy as I don’t fancy him, but I actually think that Long Run deserves to be nearly as short as Hurricane Fly, as there are no realistic challengers to him (other than a novice and a 12yo) in my opinion.

I think the following are very solid top-end hurdlers:

Oscar Whisky
Binocular
Zarkandar
Grandouet
Oscars Wells (who wasn’t suited by the ground).

And although I don’t like them myself, many think Unaccompanied and Rock on Ruby are potential high-end Grade 1 hurdlers.

So I think it is a deep field, and a good one. Hurricane Fly is obviously top dog, but he won’t have to run too far behind his best form to lose this race. Was Peddler’s Cross really that good? Oscar Whisky may have improved. The two juveniles from last season that I listed above could be anything.
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Bar, every single horse you mention has been hammered by Hurricane Fly already.

And as far as the juveniles are concerned, one of them can be considered well held on a line through Menorah to the tune of at least a stone; with his scope for further improvement seemingly limited on Bula running......and the other has about 20lbs improvement to find; assuming Nicholls consents to race him.

Hurricane Fly has himself to beat. That's it.

:cool:
 
Steve is clearly right on this - Binocular at his very best is capable of running HF very close at least - the problem is that Binocular has not been seen since the 2010 CH.
 
Grasshopper said:
With the greatest respect Steve, in my f*cking hole, he is.
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:) Binocular has run to 172 twice at Ascot and Cheltenham, while the Hurricane on the same scale has run to 171 (Cheltenham) and 173 (Punchestown). Hence at their respective best they are pretty even. Admittedly Hurricane's best is more recent so that may give him an edge, but for the difference in their odds you would have to give Binocular the chance.

On the other hand a rating in the low 170s (although very good) is not the best it could be so we may see a less exposed horse eclipse the pair of them.

Oscar Whisky for example is 167 and rising.
 
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It's got to be possible HF is still improving he's a Montjeu and he's relatively lighted raced imo.
 
Steve M and assorted Hurricane Fly doubters. Please take your views to Betfair, and trade accordingly. They'll be much appreciated there. I'll be waiting.

Regards,
Bobbyjo
 
SteveM said:
:) Binocular has run to 172 twice at Ascot and Cheltenham, while the Hurricane on the same scale has run to 171 (Cheltenham) and 173 (Punchestown). Hence at their respective best they are pretty even. Admittedly Hurricane's best is more recent so that may give him an edge, but for the difference in their odds you would have to give Binocular the chance.

On the other hand a rating in the low 170s (although very good) is not the best it could be so we may see a less exposed horse eclipse the pair of them.

Oscar Whisky for example is 167 and rising.
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Steve, this only rings true if you have 100% faith that those ratings you quote are accurate indicators of performance. Personally, I think the marks quoted above awarded to Binocular are too high to the tune of several lbs.

Not a single other runner (apart from Celestial Halo!) has franked the form of Binocular's Champion Hurdle, and the rating awarded above is tberefore very much questionable. Compare and contrast with the list of horses who have finished behind HF last spring. At least four of them have gone on to win a Graded Hurdle since.

It's not even close between HF and Binocular, and quoting RPRs or whatever they are, doesn't alter that fact.
 
Bar the Bull said:
He is a worthy favourite. I would back him at 7/4.

And I think I might get that type of price on the day.
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if he is that on the day..its automatic bad value because it means he won't be winning coz someone knows something

a horse that is unbeaten for x runs with 10lbs in hand has to be odds on in any race imo..virtually automatically..if it isn't then the market is showing no confidence
 
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EC1 said:
if he is that on the day..its automatic bad value because it means he won't be winning coz someone knows something

a horse that is unbeaten for x runs with 10lbs in hand has to be odds on in any race imo..virtually automatically..if it isn't then the market is showing no confidence
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I get what you’re saying, but is that not counter-intuitive, EC1?

Why would 7/4 be bad value, when evens isn’t? Did somebody “know something” on Sunday, when he drifted from 4/7 to 4/5?

The reasons why I think he might drift are:

Zarkandar, Grandouet and Binocular could post impressive wins before the Festival.
Almost all shorter-priced horses are available at big prices the day of big races these days. High-street bookies have repeatedly shown that they are happy to stand up and take these horses on the morning of the big races.
 
Anyone who seriously think HF's superiority is "debatable" has their head so far in the sand that they should be able to get a look up their own hoop from the far side of Beijing.

It is fanciful nonsense to suggest that HF is anything other several lbs clear of all the other CH candidates - and double-digit lbs clear of most of the eleven you mentioned earlier, Steve.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I get what you’re saying, but is that not counter-intuitive, EC1?

Why would 7/4 be bad value, when evens isn’t? Did somebody “know something” on Sunday, when he drifted from 4/7 to 4/5?

The reasons why I think he might drift are:

Zarkandar, Grandouet and Binocular could post impressive wins before the Festival.
Almost all shorter-priced horses are available at big prices the day of big races these days. High-street bookies have repeatedly shown that they are happy to stand up and take these horses on the morning of the big races.
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On Sunday there was a "doubt" re his fitness..which is why teh price drifted..on CH day that doubt isn't there.

I agree those 3 could win easily before..but i think the odds on the rest would go out rather than HF going out.

In my mind..when a horse that is unbeaten for ages..no fitness doubts..is 10 lb clear of just one horse then it should be odds on..if you add another two horses against it that are also just 10 lb inferior..it still doesn't reduce the superiority..so HF would still be a similar price.

Binocular for instance..lets say he wins impressive before..what is chance of him repeating it?..he's hardly consistent

Grandouet would be the horse that is most likely to do that imo..if he does win well before then i'd just push the other prices out to allow for his shortening in the betting..unless he runs a race that shows him equal with HF...is that going to happen?

I like Grandoet..but the best you can expect before the big one is a win with the promise of more improvement..but its only promise..not shown yet
 
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Even I probably wouldn't go quite that far, EC1.....though there's not a great deal in it for me (maybe 4lbs in Istabraq's favour), and I'd expect HF to improve again at Cheltenham.
 
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