The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Grasshopper said:
Anyone who seriously think HF's superiority is "debatable" has their head so far in the sand that they should be able to get a look up their own hoop from the far side of Beijing.

It is fanciful nonsense to suggest that HF is anything other several lbs clear of all the other CH candidates - and double-digit lbs clear of most of the eleven you mentioned earlier, Steve.
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We've already seen how Binocular is rated about the same, although I also said that HF ought to have the edge as his best ratings are more recent.

The others of course have lower ratings, but some may have more scope for improvement.

I'll say again: he is entitled to be favourite,but is too short a price. A number of them are worth taking him on with. I've been to far too many Festivals where the favourite is beaten! I've taken him on with Binocular, Spirit Son and Granduoet (there are unexposed types like Zarkandar to consider too) and what if Oscar Whisky or Peddler's Cross reoppose. Would they have no chance? Because he beat them last time it is not a guarantee that he will do so again. Hopefully for HF they won't line up though.
 
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SteveM said:
We've already seen how Binocular is rated about the same, although I also said that HF ought to have the edge as his best ratings are more recent.

The others of course have lower ratings, but some may have more scope for improvement.

I'll say again: he is entitled to be favourite,but is too short a price. A number of them are worth taking him on with. I've been to far too many Festivals where the favourite is beaten! What if Oscar Whisky or Peddler's Cross reoppose. Would they have no chance? Because he beat them last time it is not a guarantee that he will do so again. Hopefully for HF they won't line up though.
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Ratings prove nothing, as they are personal to those who create them. If you use my ratings, you'll find HF is a country mile clear.

Others may have more scope, but I suspect this is limited to Zarkander. Grandouet and Brampour already look like their progressiveness is starting to flatten-out based on Bula running.

What if Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross re-oppose. He has the beating of them both, and improved on that form at Punchestown.

Hopefully yer sister won't line up. Hurricane Fly has nothing to fear from any horse you have mentioned. Zero.

:cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Ratings prove nothing, as they are personal to those who create them. If you use my ratings, you'll find HF is a country mile clear.

Others may have more scope, but I suspect this is limited to Zarkander. Grandouet and Brampour already look like their progressiveness is starting to flatten-out based on Bula running.

What if Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross re-oppose. He has the beating of them both, and improved on that form at Punchestown.

Hopefully yer sister won't line up. Hurricane Fly has nothing to fear from any horse you have mentioned. Zero.:cool:
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This is total nonsense, of course he has. It's the Champion Hurdle we're talking about. He is not the surest favourite to contest this race and yet they are already asking for odds on about him. A worthy favourite, but far from a certainty and a plum to take on... he's keeping other horses at big prices which represent good value, whereas HF is insulting value.
 
Brilliant stuff. Steve at what price would you back HF? For the record i wont back HF at odds on, but ive got plenty on at the decent prices. :whistle:
 
OTB said:
Brilliant stuff. Steve at what price would you back HF? For the record i wont back HF at odds on, but ive got plenty on at the decent prices. :whistle:
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You have a great bet then. He is the likeliest winner and you have a chance to grab great value on a couple of the others. Personally I'd want about 7/2 against now and depending on who else lines up say nearer to 5/2 against on the day, although this is hard to judge at the moment.
 
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I can't see him beAten but I can't back him at odds on,would much rather back something with less competition like Quevega or BB.Personally if he is over 6/4 on the day I will back him but he won't be.5/4 in morning and smashed again.looking at the w/o hurricane fly market at the moment to try and pinch some value.
 
If they go 6/4 on the day for Quevega again there will be a lot of poor bookies leaving the track!:)
 
links781 said:
Looking at the w/o hurricane fly market at the moment to try and pinch some value.
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9/2 Zarkandar is tempting me in this market. It's a chancer in that we don't know how good he could be. He could easily be not good enough but I think there is a fair gap between Hurricane Fly and the rest which he could fill. 9/2 might be worth the chance. If he wins the Betfair as he is expected to then he'll be as short as that in the with Hurricane Fly market.

Scrap all that. I thought it looked good and Bet365 now go 10/3! Best priced 4/1.
 
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Hurricane is top class horse but being so lightly raced is always a concern for me, he has had many problems,
8yo is not too old but is not as young trends for this race,
finally last years form in the Festival is not exceptional either, he was ll out to beat Pedlers Cross.

Back to back victories in the Festival is not easy to see and if odds one he is one to opose for me.
 
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sunybay said:
Hurricane is top class horse but being so lightly raced is always a concern for me, he has had many problems,
8yo is not too old but is not as young trends for this race,
finally last years form in the Festival is not exceptional either, he was ll out to beat Pedlers Cross.

Back to back victories in the Festival is not easy to see and if odds one he is one to opose for me.
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you seem to suggest a bomb out Suny..he will have to as nothing else is near him

again..imo zarkander is a stayer..he won't have enough chops to beat HF
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bar the Bull
He is a worthy favourite. I would back him at 7/4.

And I think I might get that type of price on the day.
if he is that on the day..its automatic bad value because it means he won't be winning coz someone knows something
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EC is right IMO. If he drifts like that on the day, it will be because of concerns surrounding this fragile horse rather than strength of opposition

A doubling in price always bothers me if its that close to the off. Would you be happy with a 6/1 shot going out to 12s?
 
There's little point in trying to convince anyone who doesn't already have faith in Hurricane Fly. They are set in their position, and we've retrenched into two discrete camps; those who support Hurricane Fly, and the f*ckwits.

:ninja:

:lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
With the greatest respect Steve, in my f*cking hole, he is.
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:lol:

I'm not against Hurricane Fly by any means but, as someone who hasn't gotten involved as of yet, I'm not going to go taking odds on about him either.

You seem to have taken a very low view of Binocular's Champion Hurdle on the basis of subsequent efforts. Khyber Kim was clearly at the top of his game at the time though, having started the year off 143 in the Greatwood, improving throughout the year and subsequently demolishing what was admittedly a pretty poor lot at Aintree. He clearly never returned to anywhere near same form; to dismiss the Champion on the basis that he didn't go on the next year is ludicrous and wouldn't be that far off me dismissing last year's Champion on the basis of Peddler's Cross getting gubbed by Sprinter Sacre (palpable nonsense of course). The fact Zaynar got so close is discomforting, but I can live with that.

Basically my view is that there isn't a huge pile separating Binocular and Hurricane Fly (though I would have the latter over the former) at their best and that the differential in price more than compensates for the fact that the Mullins yolk is more likely to reproduce his best than Binocular is.
 
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Good well thought out post mate.

You can look back at most Champion Hurdles and say they beat nothing. That's because comapred to most winners they were nothing.


Take Peddlar's Cross for example what's he achieved over 2 miles outside of his CH 2nd? It amounts to very little indeed

He beat Starluck and an under the weather Binocular in the Fighting Fifth but then Binocular destroyed Starluck in a canter a few yeeks later making the form look very suspect. He then beat Bygones of Brig. He actually went into the Champion Hurdle on a lower rating than Khyber Kim had when 2nd to Binocular.

Something has to finish second and if you take along hard look at the race Hurricane Fly beat two horses running at unsuitable trips and there was absolutely nothing special about it. That does not mean Hurricane Fly is not an exceptional Hurdler because like all race winners they are ridden to beat what's in front of them.

To say Binocular was a poor winner is poppycock. The way he came of the top of the hill that year he'd have won the majority of Champion Hurdles.

When a horse quickens like that at that point of the Champion Hurdle it takes an exceptional horse to go with him let alone pass him and beat him. A sudden injection of pace klike that leaves most horses floundering.

Last year I fully expected Binocular to do the same again but always thought if he did HF is the only horse who could have gone with him and the only difference between the two would be Hurricane Fly's ability to quicken more than once in a race whereas Binocular has one burst of speed hits top gear then just runs on. That's the reason AP went early and didn''t sit and wait like he did the year before which turned out to be a huge error on McCoy's part he regretted and was not about to make the same mistake again. Binocular doesn't quicken on a sixpence like Hurrican Fly and is a much better horse if allowed to go early.

While Hurricane Fly looks the most likley winner this year he's not going to find it easy if The Henderson pair turn up 100% fit and well.

Obviously if Binocular did come back to his best AP will try and slip the field again at the top of the hill and make no mistake even Hurricane Fly will have to go all out to catch him. As unlikely as it may seem Binocular will bounce back, Nicky Henderson did it before with the horse and only a fool would think he's unable to do it again. Don't forget this man trained See You Then to win the race 3 times and he had the worse legs ever but on the day was always spot on.

On the other hand if Binocular runs a stinker which is just as likely and there's no great injection of pace at the top of the hill what then?

I can see no other horse in the race good enough to get Hurrcane Fly at it from a long way out and Ruby wouldn't want to be making his challenge until approchaing the last.

But no hurdler in traing travels better than Grandouet and unless Binocular does his thing I can't see anything taking him off the bridle until very late in the day if at all.

I can see Hurricane Fly and Grandouet coming down the hill both traveling really well then it'll be a case of who can find the best turn of foot and get up that hill first.

Grandouet like Hurricane Fly has a good turn of foot whereas Peddler's Cross was a 2m4f + horse passing the time IMO

He was easly pickings for Hurricane Fly but if Grandouet is there at the last I can see him having to fight a lot harder this time.

Grandouet is certainly a much better 2 miler than his stable companion Oscar Whisky ever was so I can't see him not going very close.

I think Hurricane Fly has the edge having done it all before but this is no walk over.
 
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Henderson seemed pretty convinced (admittedly without saying as much definitively, for obvious reasons) that Spirit Son was the best of his. I find it very very hard indeed to believe that he has the good fortune to have more than one horse capable of challenging Hurricane Fly in his yard at the same time.
 
I'm not convinced about that Zenyatta, at the start of the year the yard were still intimating that Binocular had come back in fantastic form and was their top CH hope. It was only when he started to disappoint that that viewpoint seemed to change.

Grandouet is a horse I really like, I had a good win on him last time out at Cheltenham where he travelled like a dream throughout the race. However, when pressed he found far less off the bridle than I was expecting. I can see him travelling effortlessly up to two out but when the leaders quicken I think one or two will pull clear of him. I get the feeling he may be a better stronger horse with another year under his belt.
 
I think we are actually in agreement. Binocular has obviously disappointed on the track and I feel the same as you about Grandouet.

When I was at Seven Barrows I asked his head lad who they all thought was their best Champion Hurdle chance . . .

He replied "Oh nearly everyone thinks Spirit Son, there's a few who like Grandouet and I'm about the only one sticking with Binocular".
 
Looking forward to seeing Starluck back over hurdles on Saturday (wherever he appears). He’s been a good test for the likes of Binocular and Peddler’s Cross in the past. A 160 hurdler, not impossible at seven that he’s still on the upgrade and could yet be an interesting outsider at Cheltenham.
 
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