The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

You won't like this lads but it has to be said.You see those Green and Gold hoops and you think GAMBLE!!!

They have to be good enough to be stopping and Ivanovich Gorbatov simply isn't that good.

Sure the Triumph has produced more than a few good horses but they were all babies or not 100% at the time and totally unfancied. 9/2 the field and AJ went off at 14/1 tells you all you need to know

Unless you think Aintree and Puchestown were part of the master plan or Davy Russell riding the ass off the horse yesterday then have a rethink.

JP likes to have gamble but I doubt he's trust his money to this horse who flatters to deceive every time he runs. It's almost like he doesn't stay in top class company.

He needs a huge drop in class and some horses he can bully IMO and his mark is 7lbs too high to be thinking a Cheltenham H'cap
 
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Aughex said:
Just want to add-before this bashing goes way out of control- that (1) NC beat Ivanovich about 20 lengths the last time they met, now he was only 2 lengths ahead.
(2) NC struggled to beat Identity Thief at last year renewal of this race but managed to beat him 14 lengths when they met at Cheltenham.
(3) NC jumped markdly to his right, just like he did at Aintree last year so clearly something was amiss with him today.
(4) No rating organization overrated the CH of last season, but due to AP allowance you would've needed a very good performance to get ahead of her. MTOY was only rated RPR 165 for 2nd to her, while for the 2nd he achieved when nk to Jezki in `14 he was rated RPR 171. So no one is overrating her performance but clearly she is the best mare since Dawn Run to grace the jumps scene and it takes a very talented horse to beat her.

When looking at this years contenders there is some young talent coming through, Sceau Royal only 4yo-don't know what happened lto in the Fighting Fifth but on his previous 2 runs he showed a powerful engine to beat a useful handicapper Ravin Black by 10 lengths giving him 8lbs is one of the performances of the season so far. Petit today only 5yo would've won the FF and today proved he's capable of even more. Yanworth only 6yo and only beaten once over timber when the ride he received was evidently at blame plus his trainer's yard at the time was in terrible form and based on the sectional timing analysis that TF S. Rowlands released today he's clearly a very underestimated horse and IMO could be the next superstar in the division if anything happens to Faugheen.
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Wasn't impressed with Ruby's ride. Would have liked to see him push the issue earlier, especially with NC's jumping.
However don't think NC was right as struggled to finish 2nd.
Don't get the winners sudden massive improvement since Rashaan did him by 3 lengths in Nov
 
You can forgive any horse a defeat first time out and most often the form is best ignored.

I think what we have here is a horse who last season was typically immature.

He did however mange to put up 2 excellent performances without winning.

At Aintree he was very keen and refused to settle until about the 4th hurdle and really he never quite managed to shake off Buveur Dair.
He did quicken and make the Henderson horse work but failed to capitalize on the lead he ahad and weakened close home.

In the Champion Novices he looked goosed when Brainpower and Don't Touch passed him. He looked booked for a well beaten 3rd when suddenly he picked up again and came storming back and actually led. That effort was more than his frame could take, he weakened very late on allowing the eventual winner to get back up.

He is a Champion Bumper winner but those runs show all the hallmarks of a horse not fully mature like a lot of 4/5 year olds who improve with another year on their backs.

This season he looked all over the winner at Newcastle when he tipped up and now he's kicked NC into touch .

NC may not have run his race but there's no doubt in my mind we have a big improver in Petit Mouchoir and strong contender for the Champion Hurdle.
 
Absurdistan said:
Wasn't impressed with Ruby's ride. Would have liked to see him push the issue earlier, especially with NC's jumping.
However don't think NC was right as struggled to finish 2nd.
Don't get the winners sudden massive improvement since Rashaan did him by 3 lengths in Nov
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I think Ruby did everything right but NC stamina is not great so he's vulnerable whenever there's a solid pace over 2m or the trip is anywhere beyond 2 and half miles. He lost the Neptune due to lack of stamina having nothing more to give in the home straight, he(David Mullins brilliance) beat Faugheen by leading into a very slow gallop in the initial stages and keeping his energy for his flat turn of foot to repel him at the end. He lost the CH against AP by Ruby setting a strong pace on her, he struggled to beat IT in this race last year because Cooper kept him honest and IT took the lead a couple of times during the race but IT wasn't the horse that Petit is to hold the strong gallop upfront.

As for Petit's first run, remember WPM horses were sooo late this season, I thought at the time he's going to lose the championship because none of his good ones were coming to play and those that were transferred we saw on their first runs how much work Willie had left to get them ready - that included horrible first runs from Don Poli, Apple Jade, Petit.
 
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As far as Faugheen goes, he will be a 9yo tomorrow and although Rooster Booster Hurricane Fly Sea Pigeon and a couple of others have won at that age or older none were off for over a year injured.

tbh I don't know how long he was actually boxed up for but there's nothing worse for dulling a horses speed than standing idle for long periods of time yet the best price you can get is about 11/4 and there's a bigger chance he will go WH than Annie Power will.he might even run both send VVM WH and Limini for the Mares....there's no way of telling what he's thinking

On the other side of the fence we have a horse who had a less serious injury or at least will be off less time. (Don Cossack) Back in work after a few months and you can have 12/1...Granted a would be superstar stands in his way but at least you know he'll run if fit while we have no idea what Faugheen will do..

Can't blame the bookies Mullins is so scary he could run a 3 legged donkey at Limerick and everything would run to the hills or decides to have a run round 20 lengths behind it.
 
I've finally managed to see the Christmas Hurdle and do some early calculations but it isn't shaping up at all well. I've still to compare times across the card so my figures are only provisional.

Let's be honest.

It was as shite a renewal as you're ever likely to see.

For me it did very little to enhance Yanworth's championship prospects so all the very best to anyone who was seduced by his win.

I thiknk the key to the race isn't The New One or MTOY; I think it is more likely to be Ch'tibello who, it may be argued, is the most consistent of the lot yet who was ridden to pick up the scraps. He came into the race off 145. Let me just re-state that: 145.

Of course, he's better than that. I think we all know that. But is he the 158-ish horse he'd need to be to make Yanworth the 165 animal he'd need to be to put him up there with Annie Power and her allowance? I just can't see it.

I had Ch'tibello as a 152 horse, allowing Melodic Rendezvous my maximum figure for him of 152 at Haydock. He's entitled to have improved again from there, but I'm sceptical about it. And what if the Haydock form wasn't really that good? After all, MR didn't do anything for it next time.

With Ch'tibello at 152, Yanworth comes out at just 158 and he appeared to struggle to keep up with them for spells. The form overall might be a couple of pounds better than that but it still leaves it well short of what you'd want to see in a Christmas Hurdle.

I just don't see that there is any cause for optimism that he is a contender in March. He strikes me as a bubble waiting to be burst. I much prefer the same yard's Sceau Royal who is many times Yanworth's price but only on the back of his poor run at Newcastle, which I think is forgivable as it was his third race in a short time.
 
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Sceau Royal ? Better than Yanworth............I mean not to offend you have some worthy posts but I am gobsmacked.........what the fook you been drinking.

Alan King wont even run that moderate thing in the CH and that's why you can have 75 on the machine
 
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They're about the same but Sceau Royal has looked the better until last time. I admit the form of his two other runs has taken a knock or three but he fairly pished up in them. He still needs to improve a fair bit but I thought he looked likely to keep improving and he was 33/1 at the time I backed him.
 
You love your outsiders DO but if that wins the Champion Hurdle........I will give up the sport forever...............no make that i will give up sex forever...........comments on a postcard please
 
I'll welcome the return of Diakali to the race-track, just as much as I will the Ricci pair - hopefully all three make it.
 
If they don't I'd prefer to watch an Eastenders omnibus or whatever other dross it is that's on on a Sunday lunchtime nowadays.
 
"Faugheen and Annie Power are both riding away and are of similar fitness," Mullins Jnr told the Irish Independent."Hopefully Faugheen can start to sparkle in his work and we can get him back to the track. Neither he nor Annie has sparked and Dad is taking a patient approach.

"We'd have liked to have Faugheen out earlier but we've not been happy with the way he has sparked: he hasn't in the way we'd have liked. It's nothing serious and he's riding away but we're very much erring on the side of caution, with March the main aim.
"He had a bit of a suspensory ligament last year, which is quite a common injury. He seems fine from that.

"Annie Power only had one run before Cheltenham last year. If we're not 100pc happy at the end of the month with either, we will wait some more."
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Hmmn.

I reckon that, at best, both will go straight to Cheltenham, in which case I'd be very concerned for Faugheen's chance. He is quite a gross horse, and on the evidence of last season's Morgiana, probably needs a run before attaining top fitness. Is the Champion Hurdle likely to be a weak enough event, for Faugheen to win it first-time-out? I wouldn't be wanting to take too short a price about it.

Unfortunately, I already fu*cking have. :mad:

I'd have less concern about Annie going straight to the race, though again, whether I'd want to back her, is a different matter.
 
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Walsh said a week or two ago that Faugheen was flying - so one of them is puling the wool over our eyes

He was as big as a bus at Ascot fto a few seasons ago too

The layers would have to take them both on, on the day if its the first run.

Irish champion will not be an overly strong race at this stage - Petit Mouchoir may miss it if I were to guess
 
Annie goes CH 100% Faugheen goes WH or joins her that is 50/50 IMO.... Each will have one race MAX before Cheltenham as I have already said...........................Mullins did it with Annie he did it with Quevega and he will do it again with Annie again. This is just common sense not inside info.

Faugheen as I said before was never going to run more than once is at all until the festival...............they won't want risk missing the big one by aggravating his previous injury so he will run in the shittiest race they can find for him like tey did for Annie last year..Is that not what any trainer would do?
 
Mullins saying the irish champion the last chance for Faugheen to get a prep run in before Cheltenham. What about the Red Mills Trial?
 
granger said:
Faugheen wont be running in the stayers at this stage

So by that logic, if they both make the festival, Annie goes to the mares
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There is absolutely no chance of her going to the mares NONE!! Ricci already scoffed at the idea saying there is only one Champion Hurdle.

When he was asked about the race he said he 100% wanted to run them both. but gave the impression Willie wants to win both the CH and the WH.

He said he had discussed it with Willie and asked the question how would one feel if Annie Power stumbled and Faugheen had gone elsewhere.

People sometimes give thing away without realising and this was one of them and I was left with the distinct feeling Annie Power will go Champion Hurdle end of story and Faugheen may or may not go WH depending on who wins the debate.
 
They clearly haven't decided yet; despite everyones ranting i'm not sure Willie decides until closer to the time and isn't trying to stiff people. IMO, whichever of them is showing best at home or in their trial will run. So everyones guessing, including Willie, which is why he says nothing!
 
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