The Road to the 2019 Champion Hurdle

If that's a pop at me, you can stow it, James.
Apples Jade may well have scoped badly as the result of a hard race.
Now, I'm quite capable of reading form, but replays don't show the inside of the mare's lungs, though they clearly showed her outpaced from a good way out. I'll take that evidence as read (not least because I'd predicted it twice before the race).If you wish to decipher the run differently, go ahead. I'll be there, taking her on every time she runs in similar circumstances.
 
reet hard said:
Apples Jade may well have scoped badly as the result of a hard race.
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I'd suggest she was beaten too far out for her to have had a hard race had she been 100% well in herself beforehand, physically and mentally.

I'm disinclined to blame the track. Again, for me it was too far out for it to have been an issue.

Maybe she just had an off day.

The sectionals I measured for her in earlier runs point to her being vastly superior to Wicklow Brave who nearly won the Coral Cup under top weight. She was also vastly superior to Early Doors who won the Martin Pipe under top weight.

I'm sure at some time in the future events will show that she would have won the race the other day regardless of how impressive the winner was.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'd suggest she was beaten too far out for her to have had a hard race had she been 100% well in herself beforehand, physically and mentally.

I'm disinclined to blame the track. Again, for me it was too far out for it to have been an issue.

Maybe she just had an off day.

The sectionals I measured for her in earlier runs point to her being vastly superior to Wicklow Brave who nearly won the Coral Cup under top weight. She was also vastly superior to Early Doors who won the Martin Pipe under top weight.

I'm sure at some time in the future events will show that she would have won the race the other day regardless of how impressive the winner was.
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So you could see inside her lungs, and thus knew exactly when her distress started? :lol: .Spare me, ffs.
I've little time for NH sectionals, moreso those produced by a relative tyro, mostly on Irish courses, but here's what I'll do: a nifty for forum coffers if she ever wins proper 2m championship test, on anything bar heavy ground against CH horses.
You might care to reciprocate when she doesn't.
 
reet hard said:
So you could see inside her lungs, and thus knew exactly when her distress started? :lol: .Spare me, ffs.
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That's an unfathomable comment. I'm not sure what kind of twisted logic could arrive at that interpretation of what I wrote.


reet hard said:
I've little time for NH sectionals, moreso those produced by a relative tyro, mostly on Irish courses
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I presume the tyro remark is directed at me? Nearly everyone who does sectionals could be described as a "tyro" since the technology to produce them is only recent. Even Timeform gave up on them after a brief experimental period although Simon Rowlands has been doing a bit more on them lately. The ones I do are mainly for big race days here when the class of racing is sufficiently high to lend a degree of reliability to them. I only do Irish ones when there's serious racing on and I've never drawn strong conclusions from them, merely strong ideas.

Define "proper 2m championship test, on anything bar heavy ground against CH horses", please? Are we talking one race per season? Talk about stacking the odds in your own favour. You should be a bookie.
 
There is no 'technology' for furlong-by-furlong sectionals save those produced by ATR (which went out of the window for Irish racing when they jumped ship to RTV) or from Meydan and the odd tilt from Turftrax. Simon Rowlands is to be admired for struggling manfully on with his obstacle-to-obstacle 'sectonals' but even he's been known to blot his copybook occasionally (viz; turning the formbook on its head by claiming Hurricane Fly 'outstayed' the likes of Rock On Ruby and Zarkander in the 013 CH).

No, not 1 race per season, neither the kind of races you appear to have used to justify your support for her as a future Champion Hurdler . Confess I haven't checked them all out, but I'm aware enough of her form to know she's never likely to be.
 
For me, the key sentence from Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis:

It is interesting to note that all of the first six in the Supreme would have finished ahead of the runner-up in the Champion in raw time terms.
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The sixth home in the supreme was Aramon, beaten 11¼ lengths.

By the way, does anyone remember what price Douvan, Vautour and Champagne Fever were for the Champion Hurdle in the first few days after winning the Supreme?
 
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Marten Julian

There are a couple of observations I would like to make now, starting with the first day. At this point in time, and unless I have reason to think otherwise, I would be very wary of taking the results at face value.
I’m not sure how soft the ground was – it read 6 on the penetrometer and 6.7 by Friday – but the winning margins may, in my view, prove misleading.
This applies specifically to the Champion Hurdle, which Espoir D’Allen won by 15 lengths – the widest margin of victory ever in the event. Earlier Duc Des Genievres won the Arkle Trophy by 13 lengths and later A Plus Tard took the Close Brothers Handicap by 16 lengths.
It would be wrong to take anything away from these three winners, but I will be amazed if the form of any of the three races holds up to inspection in the fullness of time.
On figures, assuming Melon ran to his mark of 165, Espoir D’Allen ran to a rating of 180, as opposed to his current figure of 162. This from a horse whose victories had been at Grade 3 level and had met his only defeat when tried at Grade 1 level last February.
Willie Mullins said afterwards that Melon put up the best run of his life but the proximity of 156-rated Silver Streak in third must cast doubt on the value of the form. Then, of course, we have the efforts of the mares Laurina and Apple’s Jade, with the third-flight departure of Buveur d’Air , who brought down Sharjah.
To say the race was ‘unsatisfactory’ is an understatement. The mares can be excused poor runs because they are mares, subject to physical changes from one day to the next, but it was hugely frustrating to lose the dual-Champion Hurdle and, to some extent, my each-way selection Sharjah.
Regarding the wide winning margins of the three races I have mentioned, my view is that we were dealing with false ground. That it not to say the clerk and his team are in any way to blame, but that the heavy rain that fell in the hours before the meeting, following a sustained spell of dry ground in the weeks before, caused the going to ride loose on top.
Put succinctly, some horses coped with it while others didn’t.
The frustration didn’t end with the Champion Hurdle. It was disappointing to see Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov make early departures from the Arkle. The latter especially, probably would have relished the conditions. Almost half the field failed to complete in the Ultima Handicap Chase while Benie Des Dieux took that last-flight tumble in the Mares’ Hurdle. Sadly only four finished in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.
Now don’t get me wrong. The meeting proved a success for my clients, with a profit made to level stakes and some good winners, but something strange was happening on the first day and my advice, again, is to be very guarded about taking the form too literally.
Perhaps more will be revealed at Aintree.
 
art was out on course for Cross Country and was shocked at the state of the going at various points.
Standing water, loose moving topsoil and ground cutting up badly were the order of the day.
That the major rain fell so close to the meeting did not help what was undoubtedly the most difficult final four weeks pre racing the ground team had for many a year. The race results day 1 reflected that.
Overnight drying with high winds made day 2 and later racing on days 3 and 4 a better spectacle though it seems a pity the new track crosses the old from final fence and hurdle to the line.
this should be checked into and amended if possible methinks; it did Might Bite no favours last year and did not help a few last week either.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Marten Julian

There are a couple of observations I would like to make now, starting with the first day. At this point in time, and unless I have reason to think otherwise, I would be very wary of taking the results at face value.
I’m not sure how soft the ground was – it read 6 on the penetrometer and 6.7 by Friday – but the winning margins may, in my view, prove misleading.
This applies specifically to the Champion Hurdle, which Espoir D’Allen won by 15 lengths – the widest margin of victory ever in the event. Earlier Duc Des Genievres won the Arkle Trophy by 13 lengths and later A Plus Tard took the Close Brothers Handicap by 16 lengths.
It would be wrong to take anything away from these three winners, but I will be amazed if the form of any of the three races holds up to inspection in the fullness of time.
On figures, assuming Melon ran to his mark of 165, Espoir D’Allen ran to a rating of 180, as opposed to his current figure of 162. This from a horse whose victories had been at Grade 3 level and had met his only defeat when tried at Grade 1 level last February.
Willie Mullins said afterwards that Melon put up the best run of his life but the proximity of 156-rated Silver Streak in third must cast doubt on the value of the form. Then, of course, we have the efforts of the mares Laurina and Apple’s Jade, with the third-flight departure of Buveur d’Air , who brought down Sharjah.
To say the race was ‘unsatisfactory’ is an understatement. The mares can be excused poor runs because they are mares, subject to physical changes from one day to the next, but it was hugely frustrating to lose the dual-Champion Hurdle and, to some extent, my each-way selection Sharjah.
Regarding the wide winning margins of the three races I have mentioned, my view is that we were dealing with false ground. That it not to say the clerk and his team are in any way to blame, but that the heavy rain that fell in the hours before the meeting, following a sustained spell of dry ground in the weeks before, caused the going to ride loose on top.
Put succinctly, some horses coped with it while others didn’t.
The frustration didn’t end with the Champion Hurdle. It was disappointing to see Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov make early departures from the Arkle. The latter especially, probably would have relished the conditions. Almost half the field failed to complete in the Ultima Handicap Chase while Benie Des Dieux took that last-flight tumble in the Mares’ Hurdle. Sadly only four finished in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.
Now don’t get me wrong. The meeting proved a success for my clients, with a profit made to level stakes and some good winners, but something strange was happening on the first day and my advice, again, is to be very guarded about taking the form too literally.
Perhaps more will be revealed at Aintree.
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Probably the most sensible synopsis of the Champion Hurdle result I've seen.
Just watched the race back. it's not what it seems (imo) and, like so many wide margin soft ground winners, Esporie D'Allen appears overrated as a consequence.
My view is they went off too quickly on the ground (It's noteworthy that Ruby, probably the best pace judge in the race, was having none of it on Laurina) causing Melon to be beaten a piece further than she was last year, with the 3rd horse doing the form no favours,at all.
Imo, the winner has only shown his best 2m form on soft, looks bred for further, and will have difficulty repeating the form in the foreseeable future.
 
reet hard said:
Probably the most sensible synopsis of the Champion Hurdle result I've seen.
Just watched the race back. it's not what it seems (imo) and, like so many wide margin soft ground winners, Esporie D'Allen appears overrated as a consequence.
My view is they went off too quickly on the ground (It's noteworthy that Ruby, probably the best pace judge in the race, was having none of it on Laurina) causing Melon to be beaten a piece further than she was last year, with the 3rd horse doing the form no favours,at all.
Imo, the winner has only shown his best 2m form on soft, looks bred for further, and will have difficulty repeating the form in the foreseeable future.
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I'm still working on my review but this is an extract:

My conclusion is that the Champion Hurdle fell completely apart. Buveur D’Air tipped up and brought down Sharjah, Apple’s Jade was never going from at least the mistake at the second flight, Walsh said Laurina was never travelling, Verdana Blue couldn’t go in the ground, Brain Power was never really any better than last place before pulling up coming down the hill and Global Citizen ran no race either. Mark Walsh himself admitted after the race he was riding Espoir D’Allen for a place and Evan Williams said he felt he had no real hope of getting placed in the race with 80/1 shot Silver Streak.
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Having fallen Buveur D'Air got up , followed and nearly caught Espoir before running out at the last hurdle. That will to race attitude reminded me of the day un De Sceaux tipped up 2 out at Leopardstown yet ran on to pass the winner and runner up before the finish line. Buveur should not be underestimated by anyone should he meet Espoir again.
 
PlaceBacker said:
Apples Jade best form is in Ireland, so maybe she will not be using her passport again!
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Maybe simplistically she didn't like being away from familiar surroundings? If she got herself in a tizz in the days before, would take it's toll. Not in the same class obviously but my mare used to get very unsettled if out of her usual surroundings and was a very stressy traveller.
 
Still say Apples Jade went off too quickly - 4 secs faster than the Supreme to past the 3rd hdl, according to Simon Rowland's figures - and couldn't maintain that pace against proper 2m horses. She capitulated before the next hurdle, way before fitness should have become an issue.
 
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