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The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Abracadabras could be a different proposition than he was against Honeysuckle.....he can get plenty of cover in this and show better form....might have a shilling or two for a place on the day
 
Have to do a Harchibald and get into somethings slipstream for as long as possible.....The Irish Champion Hurdle is not his type of race.....I am not a fan but I thing the ICH was over before it started.

Rachel Blackmore made way too much use of Honeysuckle which is not the idealprep either..she was really hard on the mare and there was no need which she would have known if she bothered to look behind.....Ruby would have won a length
 
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Assuming the ground will be on the faster side of g-s I'm having a dash at Sharjah.
 
Still think this is a pig of a race....from a betting perspective anyway.

Reflecting my lack of enthusiasm/a view, I took a punt and backed Saldier at 183 on the machine a couple of weeks back. Will let that ride, and applaud the winner - whoever it is.
 
Backed Epatante this morning(7/2).
After combing through the form, I've ditched Goshen on the grounds of being unproven at this level, whereas the bet has been there and done it, has a turn of foot and her last run can be ignored owing to back issues, while connections appear very positive about her chance. Won't have many bets at the festival but she strikes me as a standout.
Barring accidents, I can't have Honeysuckle in the first 2.
 
Time for me to commit to 'paper':

[TABLE="width: 334"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Epatante[/TD]
[TD](169)[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Honeysuckle[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Silver Streak[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]? p?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sharjah[/TD]
[TD]166[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Goshen[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]? o (159 nov)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] James Du Berlais[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]o Fr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Saldier[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Aspire Tower[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Abacadabras[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[TD]? (158 nov)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Not So Sleepy[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I think you would have to concede that, with the big allowance, the mares have every chance of dominating the finish here.

Epatante’s defeat last time was disappointing but I’d trust Hendo to have her at the top of her game for the race that matters.

I thought Honeysuckle got things her own way last time but it’s possible she took her opponents out of their comfort zone. On the clock, I have her at least as good as her new OR but race times and distances are notoriously unreliable in Ireland. Her last run was a career best and how good it was probably depends on how close to his best Abacadabras was. The others certainly ran well below form but maybe she made that happen.

I said after last year’s Triumph that I would not touch Goshen with a barge pole for this race unless he came out this season and put up a 170+ performance. Some people are of the opinion that he did just that last time but I’m not so sure. I’m inclined to think the race fell apart for one reason or another and the performance isn’t exactly backed up by the clock, only 23lbs faster than the novice winner of the first race, which earned an RPR of 121. His supporters will argue that it rained all afternoon, and the ground was much softer two hours later. It’s possible, granted.

I expect Sharjah to run his race without winning.

If Silver Streak’s win last time can be taken at face value he has to be taken seriously but would still be vulnerable to the mares.

I took James Du Berlais at 50/1 when the entries came out based on his French OR. Our handicapper seems willing to trust his Gallic counterpart’s judgment so I’ll follow suit. 50/1 just seemed generous, an opinion borne out by his current 22/1.

If I didn’t think Abacadabras would duck the challenge I could fancy him. He hasn’t found his notional 10lbs’ improvement yet from last year’s Supreme and has probably been trained with this one day in mind but he might need to go early and hope they don’t get to him. I suspect if they do he’ll be happy to let them show him the way to the line. That’s probably the only reason I can’t back him but he could easily prove me wrong. Still, if the other figures are correct, he’ll need to improve more than the 10lbs.

1. Epatante
2. Honeysuckle
3. Abacadabras
 
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Interesting race this, and possibly the hardest one to work out in my opinion.

Can't have Abacadabras, just not sure whether he has the guts for a battle and I'd opt with both the mares over him.

I think Goshen will either blow them all off the park, or be pulled up, I just don't know which one of those is more likely.

Honeysuckle will run her race, you know that, and Epatante needs to put that run at Kempton behind her and show the form which allowed her to lift this race a year ago.

I'd probably go with Epatante to pip Honeysuckle, just think the former will show a better turn of foot than the latter and that is what may be the deciding factor come Tuesday.
 
James du berlais form 12121212 days since last run 121 price 22.1

Should be 1st or 2nd.
 
The rain last night wasnt expected..... might be soft enough now for those that like it that way.
 
Supreme 5.3s slow: Arkle1.3s slow.
Will favour Epatante much more than Honeysuckle or Goshen, imo.
 
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reet hard said:
Supreme 5.3s slow: Arkle1.3s slow.
Will favour Epatante much more than Honeysuckle or Goshen, imo.
Click to expand...

hard to judge it given how far both winners won by, could just be way above the average.

that said, Honeysuckle far too short now. think id side with Epatante at the current prices but hoping Abacadab at least places for my e/w
 
I've gone for the 11/2 Goshen and 100/30 w/o. Enough horses are finishing tired for it to be soft enough for him.
 
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reet hard said:
Supreme 5.3s slow: Arkle1.3s slow.
Will favour Epatante much more than Honeysuckle or Goshen, imo.
Click to expand...

Honeysuckle beat the champion hurdle 3rd; Darver star on his favoured good ground. Has won 6 times on either good or yielding....
 
Is there a possibility Goshen has happend to show his best form on softer ground, because that's all he encountered, but might actually act fine on good to soft?

Some very good horses do handle different conditions.
 
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Marb said:
Is there a possibility Goshen has happend to show his best form on softer ground, because that's all he encountered, but might actually act fine on good to soft?

Some very good horses do handle different conditions.
Click to expand...

He can act on it, but it's harder to shake them off on faster ground..Easier to make up ground on it too!
It will pose a problem of sorts because Jamie has never tried to shake em off on this ground, or even pace it...

Of all of them, he has the most pronounced rounded action!
 
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Goshen far too keen and maybe a tack problem. Fantastic winner though


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