The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

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Desert Orchid said:
I've been thinking something similar since yesterday's big hcap chase at Kempton.

I know that's a bit like going from the ridiculous to the sublime and that the two races couldn't be much different but the principle is there.

Horses that have appeared to struggle for pace were suddenly out there cutting away at their fences and not stopping. It was a great race to watch and I backed four in it. Not one of the four got a look in at any time.

Compare that with the Eider on soft/heavy. I narrowed it down to four. At best morning odds they dutched at somewhere between evens and 10/11 so I went for the pound signs and put all my eggs in the Springfield Fox basket each-way only to see it try to make all and fade, the other thee filling the first three places.

I suspect what we see in the Champion Hurdle might not be what we anticipate.

While I've enjoyed most of the thread I haven't tried to over-think it too much. So far, all I've really done is look at my figures and see how they compare with what it takes to win a modest, average, good or top renewal.

I'm still not sure what this year's will be.

Honeysuckle and Epatante are mares. In a proper era they'd be handicapping if it weren't for the allowance.

One run suddenly makes Silver Streak and Goshen contenders.

Think back to when Espoir D'Allen ran away from Melon in a huge time. Suddenly he was the next superstar. Within a year everyone was saying what a crap renewal it had been.

Like I say, I've just looked at figures and compared them with past standards with a view to snaffling some ante-post value. I haven't even thought about how the race might be won.

I might do so at the five-day stage but right now the one I'm most drawn to (and is already my biggest potential winner ante-post) is Buveur D'Air. His best form is more than 7lbs better than either of the mares'.
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Harsh on Espoir D'Allen who was dead. Think most would have seen it as a poor renewal with a good winner.

Petit Mouchoir got beaten 8l yesterday getting 9lbs from Jason the Militant - last years renewal really looks awful. In an normal year, 8 of the top 10 wouldnt have been in a champion. Melon would have gone close. Darver Star, Petit Mouchoir, Supasundae, Pentland Hills, Ballyandy, Cilaos Emery, Darasso. Silver streak has enhanced his reputation from last year race.

I wouldnt rule out Jason The Militant running a big race in the Champion even if de Bromhead's third string.
 
an capall said:
Having read and considered all the inputs I'm coming down on the side of a Epatante/Buveur forecast. The overrated Goshen and the stayer, Honetsuckle will do each other in by the turn,
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Interesting!
 
Colin Phillips said:
Can this thread be decribed as an argument or just contradiction?
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A lot of winding up by memebers trying to covince themselves they got it right but the nearer we get to the race the more honest and concerned they will become.

I have been having a go at Goshen but the truth is I have no idea what to make of him

Allmankind was his own worst enemy over hurdles....but he did destroy most of the field by the top of the hill so much so the horse who was stone last ended up winning......I am pretty sure the last thing they connections want to do is let Honeysuckle make it.With no natural front runner apart from Petite Muchoir Goshe could end up having to try and run them ragged from 3 out...I doubt if he is that fast
 
Definitely a fascinating and interesting thread. I look forward to the post mortem afterwards which should be equally fascinating! FWIW, I`m on last years winner.
 
Grasshopper said:
2013 was salvation. The Fly and Solwhit. A glorious, glorious year.

But we digress.

I reckon we should be factoring the going more into our calculations. Most of the field have produced their best form on genuinely soft-ground, and I reckon it’s going to be pretty quick, no matter how much Claisse pours on to keep ‘Soft’ somewhere in the description. Fast pace and relatively-fast ground could see a bit of a mad result.
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Trusting the forecast, I reckon it will be g/s ground on the qpening day, and the executive will strive to ensure it's no quicker. For mine that would make it a speed test, and (unsurprisingly) I feel Goshen is best equipped to deal with it. Don't forget he had the Triumph (albeit on the stiffer track) shot to bits when he came down last year, and on ground the RP timed as the same g/s. Might be worth considering he was racing against novices then, but RPR's show him as having made normal improvement from novice to 5yo, so no great worries there.
Pace is often harder to predict than actual result and, no doubt something will hare off at suicidal speed, but Jamie knows the course, the horse and its limitations,so should be able to ride him to capitalise, in my view, anyway.
 
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Frankel said:
Did you fancy Honeysuckle for the Champion before her last run, or was it her last 'performance' that made you think actually she is a proper Champion horse?
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My concern about the drop back to two miles prior to this season was her jumping Frankel, which I didn't think was slick enough. She's proven me categorically wrong. Her jumping seems to have got better the faster she's gone.

I started to believe she'd go back in trip for the Champion Hurdle watching the Hattons Grace, and then I was utterly convinced watching the ICH that she was going to be hard to beat in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Slim said:
I'd suggest you wouldn't know much about The Great Man's MO.
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Never said I did. The man said himself at Cheltenham during an interview he backs them on the day and never backs them AP.....I have never heard of him personally backing anything AP for Chelteham and pulling of a gamble doing so.......It would be widely knwn if he did but he says he would rather wait till they are at the post and at least you get a run for your money
 
NH on Twitter

Having discussed plans with JP over the weekend we have decided that Buveur D’Air will NOT run at Cheltenham and instead will wait for Aintree. The extra distance will suit him well. He and Epatante are in very good form and we are very much looking forward to next week
 
reet hard said:
In other words, he can't beat Epatante?
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IMO Nothing can....Goshen is a mere lamb among sheep and Honeysuckle cant possibly make up those 8 lengths she was slower than Epatante last year

They must be hugely confident about her that they don't need Buvi as a second string to their bow......
 
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Boov swerving Cheltenham says a lot more about Boov than it does Epatante, imo.
 
Very understandable decision...if they a combination of age and being off will no doubt dampend his speed but not his class...we know he gets 2m4f so his chance of running better are more likely,,,,,,,,even being placed would be a bonus at this stage of his career
 
Does this mean Nico will ride Epatante? Unless there is another Hendo runner from The yard im missing?
 
littlelad said:
He can't beat anything, he is gone at the game.
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Ballyandy too.

Returning from injury after 12 months off, then beaten 4l on the dreadful ground. He's won at Liverpool before, and at Punchestown...
Liverpool comes 3 weeks later, he'll go there fresh and I'm sure you'll change your mind about his condition!
 
The closer we get to this year's festival the less enthused I'm becoming.

No doubt my ante-post log is playing a part even if most of the NRs won't affect me too badly due to the NRNB concession.
 
Maxbet said:
Ballyandy too.

Returning from injury after 12 months off, then beaten 4l on the dreadful ground. He's won at Liverpool before, and at Punchestown...
Liverpool comes 3 weeks later, he'll go there fresh and I'm sure you'll change your mind about his condition!
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Navajo pass gave the form a great boost the other day also.....

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littlelad said:
Navajo pass gave the form a great boost the other day also.....
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The Navajo Pass that ran to an RPR of 129 in his last run, or the Navajo Pass that ran to 157 and 154 on his previous two runs...

Because if he ran to anywhere near that mark last time out, then Goshen ran to a near 200
 
Maxbet said:
The Navajo Pass that ran to an RPR of 129 in his last run, or the Navajo Pass that ran to 157 and 154 on his previous two runs...

Because if he ran to anywhere near that mark last time out, then Goshen ran to a near 200
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I was taking the p1ss.

Him not being able to beat Navajo pass is proof enough to me that he's gone

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