The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

archie said:
2 seasons ago, Kemboy was the best staying chaser according to OR and Timeform. Last season it was Al Boum Photo and he is a solid favourite this season.

For all the chatter about ABP's schedule, no-one seems concerned that Champ has only run once and A Plus Tard twice so far this season. Of the main contenders, Minella Indo is the only one to have appeared more than 3 times.

ABP and Champ are both 9yos. According to the RP, ABP has had 17 career outings winning over £863K and Champ just 14 for £286K. I imagine the Donnellys are relaxed about his place in the pantheon.
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Bobs Worth only had 1 run prior to his CGC win, on only his 12th start overall - just saying.
 
Speaking of Bob's Worth, he was pretty much gone after his Gold Cup. This is Champ's one chance, esp with EA and Monkfish looming.
 
Euronymous said:
It's not all course, I think he needs a soft lead and/or a small field. This is the wrong race for him.
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ran well enough in the lexus which is probably the most relevant trial for this, didn't get soft lead and field was big enough

last year's run definitely a neg though, year before that can have a line drawn through it
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suppose you can only beat what's put in front of you so ABP, not unlike Best Mate, is potentially a triple winner; a smart horse in a modest era.

I really wanted Santini to progress 7lbs from last year to this. So far it hasn't happened.

I wanted Minella Indo and Allaho to progress into top notchers. That hasn't really happened either.

Even though I backed champ before his big run the other day, that was with a view to snaffling some value. He still has it to prove too.

Kemboy strikes me as pretty much on a par with ABP. He should have every chance. I don't buy the course aversion theory.

Native River might struggle on the decent ground but the fact he was so impressive last time maybe tells you all you need to know about the current crop.

Royale Pagaille is the big unknown but I have him covered too at 50/1.

The words "glorified" and "handicap" spring to mind...
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I think the parallel with Best Mate is spot on. No superstar just the beneficiary of a lack of serious competition.
I don’t think any of this year’s lineup have shown enough to persuade me they can beat ABP

That includes Royale Pagaille but I may have had a different view on that one if Cap du Nord had won either of his two recent runs

Champ the unknown but a lot’s being asked of him IMO


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Desert Orchid said:
The words "glorified" and "handicap" spring to mind...
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Been that way for at least 10 years now - with the possible exception of Native Rivers win - even that had no depth at all.

Hopefully Monkfish, Envoi Allen, Royal Pagaille et al can elevate the division back to where it was in the Kauto/Denman era.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Been that way for at least 10 years now - with the possible exception of Native Rivers win - even that had no depth at all.
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Probably.

I suppose I remember Best Mate because of all the hype surrounding him. I've probably subconsciously swept the other average renewals under a carpet in a corner of my mind.

I need to leave some room inside my head for other space invaders.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Been that way for at least 10 years now - with the possible exception of Native Rivers win - even that had no depth at all.
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I'd push back a little there. Bob's Worth was a decent enough renewal.

Don Cossack was a top class winner although he was a tad lucky to get a small field in his year. I think he was in the Cyrname/Kemboy mold, although better.
 
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Don Cossack was a very good winner. Shame he didn't get the opportunity to prove it further. In hindsight, a little unlucky in the King George.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Been that way for at least 10 years now - with the possible exception of Native Rivers win - even that had no depth at all.

Hopefully Monkfish, Envoi Allen, Royal Pagaille et al can elevate the division back to where it was in the Kauto/Denman era.
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Aye, but there’s been plenty of long gaps between superstar champions being on the scene. It’s difficult to judge ABP since he only appears infrequently, but you can only beat what’s put in front of you. He may go down as the most under-rated champion in history! On the other hand, it’s really time for another superstar to appear - can’t see anyone but Champ filling that bill, but he’ll need to perform wonders to do it.
 
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it's also unrealistic to expect a kauto/denman era anytime soon. denman at his peak is probably what you'd want from a horse going for a gold cup if you had your pick of any in the last 20 years and kauto was obviously a freak as well in his own way. you could be waiting 50+ years for two horses like that to appear at the same time in the same division at their peaks.
 
JamesRB said:
it's also unrealistic to expect a kauto/denman era anytime soon. denman at his peak is probably what you'd want from a horse going for a gold cup if you had your pick of any in the last 20 years and kauto was obviously a freak as well in his own way. you could be waiting 50+ years for two horses like that to appear at the same time in the same division at their peaks.
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But should we?

Every time we have the Arkle argument on here people come on and say horses are better now, there's more competition, the breed has improved, etc etc, and they compare it with athletics in which record times are constantly being lowered.

If that applied equally to horses we'd be looking for a 215 chaser every year.

Yet we're still looking at horses rated around 170-175 and at the same time people are complaining that ratings on the whole have been artificially inflated in the last 20 years?

Are our breeding programmes merely reinforcing mediocrity?
 
JamesRB said:
it's also unrealistic to expect a kauto/denman era anytime soon. denman at his peak is probably what you'd want from a horse going for a gold cup if you had your pick of any in the last 20 years and kauto was obviously a freak as well in his own way. you could be waiting 50+ years for two horses like that to appear at the same time in the same division at their peaks.
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Throw in Long Run and Imperial Commander as well.
 
We were definitely spoiled by the Kauto-Denman era. The norm is that the race usually bottoms a winner, and they rarely win a race thereafter. ABP has been well looked after, exactly to avoid that. The horses he has beaten have all been G1 winners - some multiple, like Bristol de Mai and Native River - but the consensus is this isn’t a vintage era. I think his victories will look better in years to come, and he certainly seems to have beaten more than Best Mate did in his GCs. He’s just one of those horses that is totally suited by the track at Cheltenham.
 
Desert Orchid said:
If that applied equally to horses we'd be looking for a 215 chaser every year.

Yet we're still looking at horses rated around 170-175 and at the same time people are complaining that ratings on the whole have been artificially inflated in the last 20 years?
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There are currently 30 chasers rated 160 and above on BHA ratings. I wonder how many they had at that rating or above in a typical year in the mid/late 1960s. It can't have been anywhere near that number given the horse population at that time.
 
Desert Orchid said:
But should we?

Every time we have the Arkle argument on here people come on and say horses are better now, there's more competition, the breed has improved, etc etc, and they compare it with athletics in which record times are constantly being lowered.

If that applied equally to horses we'd be looking for a 215 chaser every year.

Yet we're still looking at horses rated around 170-175 and at the same time people are complaining that ratings on the whole have been artificially inflated in the last 20 years?

Are our breeding programmes merely reinforcing mediocrity?
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Mmm, I know where my money, house, furniture and the lot would go if Arkle turned up on the 19th :D
 
barjon said:
Aye, but there’s been plenty of long gaps between superstar champions being on the scene. It’s difficult to judge ABP since he only appears infrequently, but you can only beat what’s put in front of you. He may go down as the most under-rated champion in history! On the other hand, it’s really time for another superstar to appear - can’t see anyone but Champ filling that bill, but he’ll need to perform wonders to do it.
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Champ is already a 9yo and has won just one G1 chase. This is his best (and possibly only) chance of winning a Gold Cup. He may win but he's not superstar material.
 
archie said:
Champ is already a 9yo and has won just one G1 chase. This is his best (and possibly only) chance of winning a Gold Cup. He may win but he's not superstar material.
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Aye, good point! Perhaps just for one year then:)
 
Here’s my goodies in order from when I’ve been watching - superstars in capitals:

ARKLE
KAUTO STAR
DENMAN
MILL HOUSE
L’Escargot
Best Mate
Desert Orchid
 
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Euronymous said:
There are currently 30 chasers rated 160 and above on BHA ratings. I wonder how many they had at that rating or above in a typical year in the mid/late 1960s. It can't have been anywhere near that number given the horse population at that time.
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I agree.

It's more of a numbers game now, especially in Ireland.

I suppose it's only natural that with a lot more horses around that there should be more at all ratings levels but shouldn't it also increase the chances of there being more 'superstars'? It doesn't seem to be happening.

And are our 160-165 horses the equivalent of 150-155 horses of the 1960s but just harder trained in order to achieve more and therefore more likely to be fragile or not hold their form for as long?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suppose it's only natural that with a lot more horses around that there should be more at all ratings levels but shouldn't it also increase the chances of there being more 'superstars'? It doesn't seem to be happening.

And are our 160-165 horses the equivalent of 150-155 horses of the 1960s but just harder trained in order to achieve more and therefore more likely to be fragile or not hold their form for as long?
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We have superstars or have had them but they haven't been running at the Gold Cup trip.
Altior - 2 miler but I believe he may have run in a GC if he'd been with a different trainer
Douvan - 2 miler
Vautour - Should have run in a Gold Cup
Sprinter Sacre - 2 miler

I believe at the Gold Cup trip you have a ceiling of around 182/3 for the best winners. This may be a similar trend with the flat as the best of of those animals this century have run at less than 12f (Sea the Stars being higher rated over 10 even though he stayed 12)

Floor wise you're looking at 161/2 - Lord Windermere.

My belief is you had a higher floor in the 60s due likely to stouter pedigrees ( was there any proper top class 2 milers aside from Dunkirk in those days)
but also a lower floor due to the way reduced horse population.

That's where the silly ratings came from. Imo the worst GC winners would have been a 154/55 beast in those days and the top ones mid 190s. I think the teaboy at Timeform overated Arkle by about a stone.
 
Euronymous said:
We have superstars or have had them but they haven't been running at the Gold Cup trip.
Altior - 2 miler but I believe he may have run in a GC if he'd been with a different trainer
Douvan - 2 miler
Vautour - Should have run in a Gold Cup
Sprinter Sacre - 2 miler

I believe at the Gold Cup trip you have a ceiling of around 182/3 for the best winners. This may be a similar trend with the flat as the best of of those animals this century have run at less than 12f (Sea the Stars being higher rated over 10 even though he stayed 12)

Floor wise you're looking at 161/2 - Lord Windermere.

My belief is you had a higher floor in the 60s due likely to stouter pedigrees ( was there any proper top class 2 milers aside from Dunkirk in those days)
but also a lower floor due to the way reduced horse population.

That's where the silly ratings came from. Imo the worst GC winners would have been a 154/55 beast in those days and the top ones mid 190s. I think the teaboy at Timeform overated Arkle by about a stone.
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Was the champion chase ever really a target in the 60s? Think John Randall harps on about Dudley in the 20s. Remember the Racing Post did a list of the top 50 2m of all time and horses like Gods Own and Finians Rainbow made the cut. Kauto Star in the top 5 I think.
 
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