The Road To The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It's tough for returning champs. I like the fav but think he's up against it with APT and Champ.
 
Tanlic said:
I don't think anyof them have improved Santini is a pro loser, Champ is an accident wating to happen with someof the craziest leaps you'll ever see not a natural jumper at all LIT has lost his way NativeRiver's best days have flowed past him. could almost be an instant replay with A Plus Tard being only possibilty
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Agree 100%! I love him but NR coming back for his 4th GC aged 11 at 14/1 doesn’t vintage year to me!

APT & ABP are the ones I’d say


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A Plus Tard is a real danger if his jumping holds up. The problem he has is he tends to be a bit sticky and slow at times, and he won't get away with it here if he loses his position. Champ's similar as well, although that was much better last time, there were still some novicey mistakes. If either jump well they are genuine dangers to Al Boum Photo. The same is true for a different reason with Minella Indo. He looked ponderous at his fences last time after his fall previously. If Henry ahs sorted that and he jumps well he also comes back into the picture.

Jumping is the name of the game thogh, and Al Boum Photo doesn't have that problem. He jumps and travels sweetly so he has to be the percentage call. I've wanted to oppose him all season, and I really expected to, but I don't think I can. He's not rock solid though because if any of those named put in a clear round they'll go close.

Does anyone feel different to that summary?
 
Kemboy is still in the maybe Gold Cup, maybe Stayers, maybe Aintree category. As much as anything else it may depend on what drops out of each race in the next 3 weeks.

Of the main contenders, my view as it stands:

Al Boum Photo - no particular holes. Solid favourite.

Champ - promising run on Sunday. However, Newbury is a much easier track than Cheltenham for getting a jumping rhythm and it's hard to see him being able to do his own thing in the Gold Cup.

A Plus Tard - only won the Savills because his rider broke the rules. Not guaranteed to stay the extra up the hill. Will Rachael ride him or Minella Indo?

Royal Pagaille - hard to assess. Anything from win to pulled up.

Santini - probably needs it bottomless but, even then, likely to find another mudlark better.

Minella Indo - disappointed this season but probably capable of better if jumping better.

Frodon - media darling but won't get his own way up front this time.

Native River - probably the one to ruin Frodon's day and finish in front of Santini. Decent place chance.

All in all, hard to see past Al Boum Photo. Royal Pagaille could be anything but is priced like he'd already won a string of G1s.
 
Yes, Royale Pagaille is the curve ball here. Impossible to know how good he is or where his ceiling might be.

Two of his handicap performances said he was good enough to run in the race, but good enough to win it is another thing entirely. It's impossible to have a firm view on him, so it makes it impossible to rule him out.
 
Maruco said:
Jumping is the name of the game though, and Al Boum Photo doesn't have that problem. He jumps and travels sweetly so he has to be the percentage call. I've wanted to oppose him all season, and I really expected to, but I don't think I can. He's not rock solid though because if any of those named put in a clear round they'll go close.

Does anyone feel different to that summary?
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I'm in the Al Boum Photo camp too Paul....I think he has much more than what would seem apparent. His two wins were born out of two entirely different races. Last year the pace was relatively sedate, evidenced by the grouping up of the entire field after the 3rd last. As the field started to quicken, he had the pace to come round the whole field, snatch the rails and then steadily increase the tempo all the way to the line, holding off challenges, fighting back after being headed and thwarting another challenge after fending off the first.. Guts, tactical speed, stamina and heart....All the rest have questions...
 
Maxbet & Maruco we are on the same page!

People weren’t happy with his Tramore run, including Willie at the time but he hasn’t come out since so he can’t have been that unhappy with it!

The thing with ABP is that he is your Gary Neville; not a fans favourite, just goes about his work, does whatever is required of him and gives you a solid performance of 8/10 every time. Something just needs to give a 9/10 performance on the day!


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I'd be OK with that, tbh. I don't think her last two rides on Minella Indo have been particularly clever (generally, I think she is very good, mind).
 
Maruco said:
A Plus Tard is a real danger if his jumping holds up. The problem he has is he tends to be a bit sticky and slow at times, and he won't get away with it here if he loses his position. Champ's similar as well, although that was much better last time, there were still some novicey mistakes. If either jump well they are genuine dangers to Al Boum Photo. The same is true for a different reason with Minella Indo. He looked ponderous at his fences last time after his fall previously. If Henry ahs sorted that and he jumps well he also comes back into the picture.

Jumping is the name of the game thogh, and Al Boum Photo doesn't have that problem. He jumps and travels sweetly so he has to be the percentage call. I've wanted to oppose him all season, and I really expected to, but I don't think I can. He's not rock solid though because if any of those named put in a clear round they'll go close.

Does anyone feel different to that summary?
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APT must go close, one horse you can be certain is capable of a few lbs progression

MI/Champ have to be viewed as almost siamese

I find it hard to believe a horse coming from handicaps wins the GC in this field (maybe not a race of superstars) but a good renewal
 
Maruco said:
A Plus Tard is a real danger if his jumping holds up. The problem he has is he tends to be a bit sticky and slow at times, and he won't get away with it here if he loses his position. Champ's similar as well, although that was much better last time, there were still some novicey mistakes. If either jump well they are genuine dangers to Al Boum Photo. The same is true for a different reason with Minella Indo. He looked ponderous at his fences last time after his fall previously. If Henry ahs sorted that and he jumps well he also comes back into the picture.

Jumping is the name of the game thogh, and Al Boum Photo doesn't have that problem. He jumps and travels sweetly so he has to be the percentage call. I've wanted to oppose him all season, and I really expected to, but I don't think I can. He's not rock solid though because if any of those named put in a clear round they'll go close.

Does anyone feel different to that summary?
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More or less on the same page. Early on I found it difficult to see past last year’s main protagonists to repeat the dose this year. Al Boum Photo must be the one to beat, Lost in Translation seems but a shadow of his former self (Tizzards are having a torrid time all round) and I can only take Santini on trust relying on Henderson having him spot on for the race.

What else? Native River has staged something of a revival, but I can’t see better than a gallant run. Most of the others have disappointed or aren’t really up to it, bar A Plus Tard ( jumping? as you say, and stamina?), and maybe Champ who is really an unknown quantity.

So I’m with the market which has got ABP fav, followed by C and APT joint second fav - I’d add Santini to those two.
 
What I’ve always loved most about this meeting is the fact that it really puts the onus on the jumping. Horses can run all season around a variety of tracks, some test the art more than others but there is nothing like this for really requiring a quick and efficient jumper.

I think A Plus Tard can win this bit listening to Ruby recently, and re-watching his races this season I see what he means, APT often doesn’t land running. That’s not to say he’s a bad jumper it’s just that he’s regaining momentum at many fences.

Champ is an enigma and I loved his last run but he struggled from the top of the hill in the RSA and his jumping can be hit and miss.

Al Boum Photo is hard to pick holes in but having been given the Best Mate treatment he’s protected from criticism because he hasn’t faced a real challenge. He’s won two weak Gold Cups but admittedly this year’s doesn’t look too strong either. He’s far from unbeatable though.

It is nothing to do with the prices I have about him because APT has been my main fancy but if, and it’s looking increasingly unlikely with the forecast, the ground is slower than genuine soft ground then Native River will put any horse that makes a half serious mistake, out of the race.

In the eagerly awaited 2005 Arkle Azertyuiop, a great and economical jumper, was out of the race the second he blundered at the water.

That was admittedly a 2m chase but they won’t be hanging around here if Native River gets there safe and sound.

His chance will be diminished if the ground rides any quicker, which will also inconvenience plenty of others because while, I’m not suggesting Native River wins, jumping is going to be absolutely paramount in this year’s renewal with him there.
 
Is it just me but I can’t warm to Al Boum Photo and can’t imagine him being a triple GC winning horse?
 
It's not just you Moe. The problem with Al Boum Photo is we just don't see him running through the heart of the season. It makes latch on to other horses and want them to beat him.

The trouble is I don't think anything will, and he'll be a three time winner without people scrambling to put his picture up in the study.
 
He's not capable of front running against this field and I can't decide if he or Verdana Blue for the Mares are the worst 14/1 shots in history. I'd make them both 33s.
 
You know you love him really, Euro.:cool:

Hopefully you didn't lay him in any of the 4 G1 chase victories - more than any other runner in the field.
 
Not a place in 4 runs at HQ though Archie, are you surprised he's coming here?
What would you have done?
Looking at his form, no doubt he's smart but generally likes to dominate in smallish fields, which is unlikely here don't you think?
After his last win , Stayers Hurdle and Ryanair were largely touted?
 
tiggers1972 said:
Not a place in 4 runs at HQ though Archie, are you surprised he's coming here?
What would you have done?
Looking at his form, no doubt he's smart but generally likes to dominate in smallish fields, which is unlikely here don't you think?
After his last win , Stayers Hurdle and Ryanair were largely touted?
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He was 4th in the JLT which got him in the winners enclosure, Cheltenham's definition of a place.

In terms of the 4 runs,
- 5th in the Neptune was respectable and he seems to be a better horse over fences.
- 4th in the JLT was his third run over fences and, again, respectable with only one jumping error.
- the first Gold Cup was a farce as he was badly impeded by Presenting Percy.
- the second Gold Cup was disappointing but the culmination of a far from ideal preparation.
All in all, it's possible that the configuration and fence placement of the New Course makes it more difficult for him to get his rhythm but I don't think he's had a fair crack of the whip yet.

In terms of his running style, he certainly likes to go forward but I don't think he has to lead. He didn't in the Punchestown handicap and he was happy to let Definitly Red share the work in the Punchestown Gold Cup. I just want them to let him do his thing and that includes the jumping so give him a good sight of the fences.

I was quite surprised that Willie made his mind up so early but was always happy to leave the decision to him. Ruby seems to think it's the right move so we'll see what happens. As long as Willie doesn't do a Vautour on us!
 
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