The Road To The Champion Hurdle 2021

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Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

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The Road To The 2021 Champion Hurdle

Thought we'd start the one or two usual "Road To" threads with an overview of the market as it stands now, will be interesting to look back next March and see what was occuring

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granger said:
Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
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I think 10s is fine. Would like a renewal on better ground but that is becoming far from a given nowadays.

Remember how impressive Binocular was in his CH? Form ended up being worthless. I have a suspicion this past renewal might be similar. Epatante had the run of the race compared to Sharjah who didn't have ground conditions to boot. She's very opposable as is Goshen at his price.
 
granger said:
Is Goshen fully confirmed for a jumps campaign?

Abac way shorter than I hoped for?
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I hope so. Goshen (or should I say Jamie Moore) cost me a fortune in the Triumph, but he was so good I vowed to back him ‘til he loses and since I don’t expect him to lose before the Champion Hurdle I’ve already taken him.
 
I took 33/1 Aramon a couple of months back. Now 25s tops. Going in the right direction at least.
 
Yes Aramon and Saint Roi both the value. I backed both early and have 33’s on both. Epatante and Abracadabras the most likely winners though I think.
 
Goshen is an unknown. There has to be a chance that 2m will be too short for him in the end but I think he is one of the strongest gallopers I've seen. Classier types might travel against him but they will need to guts it out for half a mile to beat him. There are very few I'd fancy to do so. The more brutal the test the better.
 
Captain Guiness is one for me at a bigger price, was desperately unlucky in the Supreme.

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HawkWing said:
Goshen is an unknown. There has to be a chance that 2m will be too short for him in the end but I think he is one of the strongest gallopers I've seen. Classier types might travel against him but they will need to guts it out for half a mile to beat him. There are very few I'd fancy to do so. The more brutal the test the better.
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Don’t forget the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course, and the Triumph was on the stiffer new course which isn’t in his favour.

Goshen’s odds are an absolute disgrace, and are no reflection of his chance. He has plenty to prove coming out of The Triumph that typically doesn’t work out well. Admittedly he potentially looks a notch above the usual, but of the top half dozen or so he’s the one I want to be on the least.
 
Maruco said:
Don’t forget the Champion Hurdle is on the sharper old course, and the Triumph was on the stiffer new course which isn’t in his favour.

Goshen’s odds are an absolute disgrace, and are no reflection of his chance. He has plenty to prove coming out of The Triumph that typically doesn’t work out well. Admittedly he potentially looks a notch above the usual, but of the top half dozen or so he’s the one I want to be on the least.
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Yeah, they may be crazy odds for Goshen but, like Hawkwing, I’ve not seen anything “Frankel” his opponents in the same way. He”s won by 23 lengths, 34 lengths and 11 lengths easing up each time and he would have won the Triumph by a dozen lengths or more, too. He really looks like something very special and I’m taking the view that he is unless he proves otherwise rather than the other way round. Even so, on what he has shown so far, Timeform have him rated equal with Epatante so maybe the odds are not so crazy after all.
 
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Yes, the champion is on the sharper course, with a greater emphasis on jumping. However, it will be run on the soft side of good. Sometimes its just about picking the best horse. If Goshen could kick at the top of the hill, leave the hold up travelly types race to get to him and see who wants it more up the hill. Happy to be proved wrong, and its not the sharper test that bothers me, the more brutal the race the better. I would worry about him in a dawdle over any distance, which i think we know is not a real worry with this horse.

Genuinely delighted that there are those who think he is ridiculously priced.

You could definitely argue that if Shiskin did so much wrong in the Supreme and still won doesn't say an awful lot for the others, and if Sharjah is the best hurdler in training, its hardly a stellar age.
 
The truth is none of us know HW. It's one of the reasons why I love the sport and the differing opinions that challenge my own.

This season he'll be racing against the best around, and not 4 year old juveniles. I don't think he'd be leaving the best of this seasons class behind if he kicks at the top of the hill. He'd just be setting the race up for a finisher. In fact I'm not sure he'll even be leading at the top of the hill. I can't imagine they'll want to make their move until after the flight half way down the hill after keeping him settled just behind the leader(s). If I were Jamie Moore I'd want to get the inside pitch leading coming round the bend for home and then see if the others are good enough to get to me. And I think there's enough potential class in the field to see him off. All that depends on who gets there of course, and the same is true of Goshen himself after he'll already have had a flat campaign straight into his hurdle campaign, which is hardly ideal.

People assume he was going to win by half the track when he fell at the last, and he may well have won 10-15 lengths. But he also may have tied up after going for it early. We don't know. Often mistakes are made due to fatigue rather than just a plain error. Win or lose, the that fact that he's now gone favourite on the exchange is just plain ridiculous, when based on all we know he doesn't have the leading claim, he's going to have had a very long campaign come March, anything can happen between now and then fitness-wise, plus the trainer/jockey doesn't inspire either. He should be a short double figures price at best this far out. And if he proves he can mix it in his first run, then maybe he should be a price more like Abracadabras at 7/1 rather than 4/1. If he was a sensible price I'd put him in my book, but at this stage I can't see any way I can back him other than a multi so he's in my book, or to perhaps provide some cover on the day of the race.
 
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Yeah. Of course. But what flat campaign? It's September. Has been off since March.

I think he would have taken some beating in this year's champion.
 
Whether you think he has a leading claim or not, that's of course up to you.

Timeform's ratings suggest that he should be near enough to favourite. And for the record I said that Saint Roi is the value. If Goshen is in the field, Envoi Allen becomes more interesting.


HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
161 PAISLEY PARK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 SIRE DU BERLAIS
158 ABACADABRAS
158 BUVEUR D'AIR
158 LISNAGAR OSCAR
157 DARVER STAR
156 BAPAUME
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 MR ADJUDICATOR
156 RONALD PUMP
156 SALDIER
156 SUMMERVILLE BOY
 
I think they were talking about two races, with perhaps a third depending how it goes. He then needs to get more experience in over hurdles, so you'd imagine 3 races over hurdles prior to March. All guesswork though. He could flop in his first flat race and they pull up stumps.
 
HawkWing said:
Whether you think he has a leading claim or not, that's of course up to you.

Timeform's ratings suggest that he should be near enough to favourite. And for the record I said that Saint Roi is the value. If Goshen is in the field, Envoi Allen becomes more interesting.


HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
161 PAISLEY PARK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 SIRE DU BERLAIS
158 ABACADABRAS
158 BUVEUR D'AIR
158 LISNAGAR OSCAR
157 DARVER STAR
156 BAPAUME
156 CILAOS EMERY
156 MR ADJUDICATOR
156 RONALD PUMP
156 SALDIER
156 SUMMERVILLE BOY
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I fundamentally disagreed with their rating when it came out. To give him 161p for not getting past the final hurdle in any juvenile race is just about as crazy as 4/1 is in August for next March. To put him on the same mark as Epatante doesn't work for me either even though that one gets an extra 7lbs mares allowance. I also think his OR of 157 is little too high. I was prepared to give him 154 at most, although I accept I wasn't prepared to go overboard not knowing what would have happened in the last couple of furlongs and up the hill. Out of interest, what did you give him Desert Orchid? We tend to be very similar in our approach, so it would be interesting to see of you've taken a very different view on him than me.

The point is we need to see him in open company to make any kind of genuine assessment, and it's probably his second race over hurdles this season that will give us the truest picture. My position is just how poor a price 4/1 is. For now he has to prove some not inconsiderable negatives to be wrong. If he does I will swallow it and change my position.

Yes Saint Roi, Aramon, and Saldier all interesting at there prices for different reasons. All with the master trainer too. I'm assuming that one of Saldier or Sharjah will go novice chasing. I suspect the latter, where he'd be of potential interest in the Arkle against Shishkin.
 
HawkWing said:
HURDLERS
163 SHARJAH
161p EPATANTE
161p GOSHEN
161 PAISLEY PARK
160p ENVOI ALLEN
160 HONEYSUCKLE
159p SHISHKIN
159 BENIE DES DIEUX
159 IF THE CAP FITS
159 SIRE DU BERLAIS
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The thing to remember with ratings is that Supreme horses improve a notional 10lbs into their next season. You would hope a good juvenile would too but the Triumph has a history of bottoming them and 5yos do seem to struggle in the Champion.

I would have Goshen in the front three or four of the market myself because I think he was an exceptional juvenile but I think Shishkin is a 170+ this coming season, if they choose to stay over hurdles with him but they might think they have enough there in Epatante and even Buveur to let Shishkin do an Altior over fences.
 
Maruco said:
See post above Maurice just in case you missed it as we posted at the same time. I'm interested if you gave Goshen a higher mark than me for the Triumph?
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From my brief review of the Friday:

Triumph - I must admit I found it hard to buy into the pre-race hype about Goshen but he was going to win impressively. Right now I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole for next year's Champion Hurdle, though, because he'll only be five. If he comes out next season and shows himself to be a 170+ 5yo I might change my mind, though. The feeling beforehand was that the juveniles weren't really up to much and that appears to have been borne out.
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<!--[endif]-->I'm not happy either with how the time ratings pan out for the day.

I have the Triumph fully 26lbs slower than the County (over CD) but, in truth, my time ratings in general on the day point to nearly all the races being slower than expectations. There was also a pace collapse in the Triumph, with Burning Victory being ridden to pick up some scraps and ending up with the entire buffet falling on to the floor.

My time ratings put Goshen on a worst-case 140 (allowing for a 10 lengths win) and best-case 159 but that would put Saint Roi on 169 on times, which doesn't seem realistic. The truth is almost certainly somewhere in between but pegging it more accurately will probably depend on how the form pans out this season.
 
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Think that the idea that the juveniles werent up to much is wrong, especially beforehand. Nicholls' winner of the Adonis was given the full five star treatment by ITV and several racing journos (by any rate). And Goshen did live up to the hype. He did exactly what many thought he would, without collecting.

From the time ratings - if you were to assume a 12l win for Goshen - who simply broke the Skelton horse and 'he' rather than the race collapsed - where does it put it vis-a-vis time for Saint Roi. Aren't you comparing Saint Roi's time against Burning Victory when that's hardly the story of the triumph? Doesn't the fact that Goshen didn't collapse in a race where everyone else did merit him being marked up?
 
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