Desert Orchid
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Indeed they require judicious application but get them right and you have an edge.
The Road To The Champion Hurdle 2021
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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Indeed they require judicious application but get them right and you have an edge.
You know the obvious question is....what price do you think is fair for him?
Ante post betting isnt about what the horse has done. If i was a bookie I wouldnt be overly brave about the horse.
Too much juice in his handicap mark currently and prizemoney. I see no end to his potential at the moment, and hurdles get in the way.
Grasshopper
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Aramon franked the County form emphatically under a stopping-weight in the Galway Hurdle. Saint Roi's Champion Hurdle price (currently 20/1) is for having onside before the Morgiana.
I wouldn't back him at this stage at less than 10/1 HW. Given the bookies have taken their position on him, he will only trade above 5/1 now if he gets turned over. In which case you probably wouldn't back him anyway.
I was keeping his jumping up my sleeve for any further riposte by the way. :lol:
Aramon franked it in the Grimes Hurdle, and then put big bells on it at Galway!
I've already got Saint Roi at 33/1 and 25/1, and Aramon at 33/1. I'll keep chipping away at the pair of them through the season. I've also had a small nibble on Saldier at 25/1.
At the top of the market I've Abracadabras at 10/1, and a roll up on to Epatante at 31.25/1.
The one I have missing is Goshen because of the nuts price. There's nothing else I feel can win it, other than something from left-field or lots of injuries.
That will be his biggest test. He jumped very well in the triumph but we'll be a different test vs the best. I think the bula/international and then haydock/sandown would be my route with him.
To be fair, other than the last, his jumping was much improved in the Triumph. He was pretty tidy all the way round.
There's a comment somewhere from Gary Moore that he'll aim him at the Fighting Fifth in November, and the Xmas Hurdle in December. Neither of which you'd think would be perfect for him. It also suggests he's not going to get any kind of meaningful break after his flat campaign given the Cesarawitch is in late September, and he needs to win a handicap somewhere first, presumably soon. You'd think then a run at the trials meeting at the end of January, and then the Champion Hurdle itself.
There's a comment somewhere from Gary Moore that he'll aim him at the Fighting Fifth in November, and the Xmas Hurdle in December. Neither of which you'd think would be perfect for him. It also suggests he's not going to get any kind of meaningful break after his flat campaign given the Cesarawitch is in late September, and he needs to win a handicap somewhere first, presumably soon. You'd think then a run at the trials meeting at the end of January, and then the Champion Hurdle itself.
Diamond Geezer
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GM on RacingTV today said they are looking at a 1m 6f handicap at Haydock on Sept 26th for him.
Cesarewitch is on Oct 10th
Cesarewitch is on Oct 10th
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It's potentially a tough old schedule isn't it? Four top end races between September 26th and the Xmas period, still needing to get more experience in over hurdles before March. And given he hasn't looked straightforward in the jumping department, I'd say 4 or 5 lifetime hurdles runs before going to the top table in a Champion Hurdle isn't enough, so presumably they need to take in another race somewhere before March as well.
There's also no time for Moore to let him down and properly refresh him. So in my opinion, it's unlikely he can go that many times to the well and still be in peak physical condition in March. That current plan doesn't really make sense if they're serious about the Champion Hurdle, and smacks of something not properly thought through, or even an afterthought. It tells me the Cesarawitch is their priority and not the Champion Hurdle, for which he could have had a proper campaign and been specifically targeted at it if they were serious. The Champion Hurdle smacks of Plan B if the 'flat plan' doesn't work. Also what if he wins the Cesarawitch and he gets a lofty mark. Will they not be tempted to target next seasons 'Cup' races on the flat. Surely they would, and if so they can't keep him on the go for 12 months.
And what kind of campaign can they realistically get in that let's him target the flat races they want, and then allows him to get at least three G1/G2 hurdles in before March, and still keep him at peak fitness? Or would anyone be happy that he has a fantastic chance of winning a Champion Hurdle after only 4 or 5 lifetime runs?
As I've said, if anyone has him at a double figure price fair enough, but anything less just strikes me as a poor bet.
There's also no time for Moore to let him down and properly refresh him. So in my opinion, it's unlikely he can go that many times to the well and still be in peak physical condition in March. That current plan doesn't really make sense if they're serious about the Champion Hurdle, and smacks of something not properly thought through, or even an afterthought. It tells me the Cesarawitch is their priority and not the Champion Hurdle, for which he could have had a proper campaign and been specifically targeted at it if they were serious. The Champion Hurdle smacks of Plan B if the 'flat plan' doesn't work. Also what if he wins the Cesarawitch and he gets a lofty mark. Will they not be tempted to target next seasons 'Cup' races on the flat. Surely they would, and if so they can't keep him on the go for 12 months.
And what kind of campaign can they realistically get in that let's him target the flat races they want, and then allows him to get at least three G1/G2 hurdles in before March, and still keep him at peak fitness? Or would anyone be happy that he has a fantastic chance of winning a Champion Hurdle after only 4 or 5 lifetime runs?
As I've said, if anyone has him at a double figure price fair enough, but anything less just strikes me as a poor bet.
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barjon
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Aye, agree with that. They’ve got to decide whether it’s to be flat or jumps. It’s asking too much to try for both.
It appears that they've just entered him for Champions Day at Ascot in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup as well.
That adds weight to the theory that they may be thinking of him as a 'Cups' horse if all goes well this season, and adds a further element of doubt to him even turning up in the Champion Hurdle.
To extend the debate further, if he wins either at Ascot or Newmarket, there has to be a good chance he bypasses a hurdles campaign, save for perhaps an easy pot in something like the Fighting Fifth before putting him in a field for three months. If he gets turned over rather than has no luck at Haydock, Newmarket, or Ascot, you'd have doubts about him being good enough for the Champion Hurdle anyway.
That adds weight to the theory that they may be thinking of him as a 'Cups' horse if all goes well this season, and adds a further element of doubt to him even turning up in the Champion Hurdle.
To extend the debate further, if he wins either at Ascot or Newmarket, there has to be a good chance he bypasses a hurdles campaign, save for perhaps an easy pot in something like the Fighting Fifth before putting him in a field for three months. If he gets turned over rather than has no luck at Haydock, Newmarket, or Ascot, you'd have doubts about him being good enough for the Champion Hurdle anyway.
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Diamond Geezer
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Alderbrook had three flat runs in the Autumn ( he had previous outings as well) and then won the Kingwell Hurdle prior to the Champion Hurdle, so it can be done.
That's true Roger, and it was a pretty remarkable performance. But there are still a multitude of differences between the two. Alderbrook's first novice hurdle was in 92' and his Champion Hurdle was in 95'. He was also a much more mature and experienced horse than Goshen is. Albeit the Moore's seem to think he can run in about twenty races between now and March. :lol:
It wasn't a great Champion Hurdle that Alderbrook won either. Simon Rowlands would have had a field day with it. A very slow race that turned into a sprint for the line. When Danoli still finished third, it shows just how much the race was run to suit Alderbrook. That he raced almost exclusivelyat, and was at his best over 10 furlongs says he was more about speed that the typical Champion Hurdle winner too.
He'd also had something like 25 lifetime starts as opposed to Goshen who's had 10, all at a much lower level than Alderbrook raced at. By the time of his Champion Hurdle he'd won the Prix Dollar beating Volachine, and was later beaten into second in the Grade 1 Prix Ganay at the same course, ahead of both Freedom Cry and Hernando. In other words his ability and performances on the flat are on a different stratosphere to Goshen's.
The mention of Alderbrook brings back really fond memories, and in hindsight it was a pretty audacious plan that Kim Bailey pulled off. Given the standards we see these days, I see what he did as very much a one off that's unlikely to be repeated.
It wasn't a great Champion Hurdle that Alderbrook won either. Simon Rowlands would have had a field day with it. A very slow race that turned into a sprint for the line. When Danoli still finished third, it shows just how much the race was run to suit Alderbrook. That he raced almost exclusivelyat, and was at his best over 10 furlongs says he was more about speed that the typical Champion Hurdle winner too.
He'd also had something like 25 lifetime starts as opposed to Goshen who's had 10, all at a much lower level than Alderbrook raced at. By the time of his Champion Hurdle he'd won the Prix Dollar beating Volachine, and was later beaten into second in the Grade 1 Prix Ganay at the same course, ahead of both Freedom Cry and Hernando. In other words his ability and performances on the flat are on a different stratosphere to Goshen's.
The mention of Alderbrook brings back really fond memories, and in hindsight it was a pretty audacious plan that Kim Bailey pulled off. Given the standards we see these days, I see what he did as very much a one off that's unlikely to be repeated.
The fact that he's trained by Gary Moore is enough to put me off. Yes, I know he did well with Sire De Grugy but that year when Sprinter first suffered problems with his heart was subsequently a dire one for 2m chasers (he was chased home by Somersby and Module FFS)
But I digress and the fact that Moore is planning an end of season flat campaign for Goshen proves my point IMO and while it could be short term financially viable - even with the reduced prize money - is more than likely to be detrimental to the horses chance in March a la Detroit City.
But I digress and the fact that Moore is planning an end of season flat campaign for Goshen proves my point IMO and while it could be short term financially viable - even with the reduced prize money - is more than likely to be detrimental to the horses chance in March a la Detroit City.
Grasshopper
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Whilst I agree that a late-season Flat campaign would likely compromise his Champion Hurdle chances, I wouldn't be quick to write-off Goshen's shot at the title, on experience alone.
This isn't like Our Conor going into open company against the likes of Jezki or the incomparable and legendary Hurricane Fly. He'll be going in against a bunch of absolute fu*cking no-marks in 2m open company, and with normal improvement, could certainly put himself in the mix, based on how good he was as a juvenile.
This isn't like Our Conor going into open company against the likes of Jezki or the incomparable and legendary Hurricane Fly. He'll be going in against a bunch of absolute fu*cking no-marks in 2m open company, and with normal improvement, could certainly put himself in the mix, based on how good he was as a juvenile.
He'll be burnt come March if they follow the current plan Grassy.
Hobbs tried it with Detroit City and it pretty much finished him. And that was with one less flat run than Gary Moore is intending.
Hobbs tried it with Detroit City and it pretty much finished him. And that was with one less flat run than Gary Moore is intending.
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Pretty sure sire de grugy started off his champion chase year by winning a handicap at Chepstow. I wouldn't worry about it for Moore. Are people saying that Hobbs couldn't be trusted with a good horse? If wait to see just what races he does run in before burying Gary Moore or the horse. Not sure why he would need to be cherry ripe for his first race in a haydock handicap off 88 at the end of September. (If that's where he ends up)
Grasshopper
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Not convinced by this comparison myself, Paul.
The flat run included, DC only had three other runs before the CH, winning all three. It wasn’t the campaign that got Detroit City beaten - never going a yard and jumping like a pig, is what got him beaten - and he looked all over a horse that had gone wrong physically therafter.
Clearly, there is a risk that Moore goes to the well too often, and if he’s serious about a Champion Hurdle campaign for the horse, he’d need to be mindful of that. But that’s not really my point, which was that the “big boys (and girls)” just aren’t that big, and he doesn’t have to make much more in the way of improvement, to make himself a contender.
He’s a toilet-bowl price though, I’ll give you that much.
Desert Orchid
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Re Goshen, this is from the review thread of this year's festival (which I'll bump too).
To be fair Hawk Wing, Sire De Grugy won a really weak Champion Chase when others didn't make it there. Just look at who was second and third. Somersby and Module. It didn't take much winning. Also when you look back at his races that season he didn't face the kind of opposition Goshen will need to, so he wouldn't have had to necessarily go to the well. He also started out later, plus he was an 8 year old so he should have been capable of standing more racing by that stage.
But I think your main point is that the Moore's have won and open Grade 1 at the Festival before?
The point was that as a young horse he'd been on the go in top races for a long time with no time to be wound down Nick, and by the time he got to the Champion Hurdle he was done for. He wasn't travelling before the mistakes happened and he was just flat. With Goshen, throw in at least one more race and an even earlier start as well.
I'm not totally convinced he'll turn up in March at all, and if they really think he's as good as they say he is they'll look after him a bit better than the current plan. For me it's one or the other with him. If he proves to be good enough on the flat they will be tempted to go for the flat stayers cups next season, and if he's not good enough his flat mark won't be in the range that makes him a Champion Hurdle winner anyway.
Grasshopper
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Still not convinced it's a fair comparison, tbh. Gohsen has only had 10 runs in total; including those which took him through his juvenile season. It's less extreme than DC, who had eight runs on the Flat before he was ever sent hurdling. I just don't see that Moore is 'over-facing' him in any way....though we may view it differently by Xmas, if he is serious about two Flat runs before the Jumps season starts.
Recall having the opinion at the time, that Detroit City (Stayer on the flat) just couldn't jump at a championship pace, which had little to do with how many races he'd had.
Do you guys eat,drink and sleep 'Cheltenham Festival' btw?
Pretty much Reet. You should come and join us. We might convert you! :lol:
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