The Road to the Grand National 2018

edgt said:
Westerner Point tackles the Becher Chase Saturday; backed in from 33 to 16 with Ladbrokes.
As game a horse as ever looked through a bridle owned and trained by a sporting bunch of guys near me; nobody will be cheering louder for him Saturday than me.
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They fancy him big time I believe.


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He might just be a bit of a good thing there. I have him some way better than Cause Of Causes. It wouldn't affect his handicap for the National either. TVM.
 
Save your money re Un Temps Pour Tout, he’s having the season off according to Pipe in today’s RP;

“It’s a shame but we’ve taken the decision to give him the rest of the season off and bring him back fresh in the autumn”
 
@!"£$%^&*@@##$&!!!!!!!

It actually contradicts what was said earlier (in the stable tour) that he was being saved for a spring campaign as he didn't come to form until then. It doesn't then make sense for him to be set for an autumn campaign, unless that campaign is to get him down 10lbs.

I also presume it means he isn't working at all well so best they look after him.
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Word round these parts is the Festival Cross Country is the objective, that's not to be saying he won't try for the GN as well

Just checked, there's a four week gap between the Festival and the GN meeting in 2018 so not an arduous task as it might be.
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Cross Country - Grand National is a pretty standard route.
 
Desert Orchid said:
@!"£$%^&*@@##$&!!!!!!!

It actually contradicts what was said earlier (in the stable tour) that he was being saved for a spring campaign as he didn't come to form until then. It doesn't then make sense for him to be set for an autumn campaign, unless that campaign is to get him down 10lbs.

I also presume it means he isn't working at all well so best they look after him.
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The brother has been on the phone. He read the article in full today (I might nip down the road and check it myself) and says the Ultima took a lot out of UTPT. I'm not surprised. I've said more than once it was a savage race run in a sensational time.

The brother reminded me the yard put Comply Or Die away for a couple of years before his National win and he went close the next season off a much higher weight. He thinks that's what they're doing.
 
Do you have a mark down for Gold Present? Is he to be handicapped to the max for this?

Had him down for National at beginning of the year, but after a Couple of good wins not sure he'd be well in with the handicappers.
 
Double J said:
Do you have a mark down for Gold Present? Is he to be handicapped to the max for this?

Had him down for National at beginning of the year, but after a Couple of good wins not sure he'd be well in with the handicappers.
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Currently rated 155
 
GP went up to 155 for his win the other week. I don't have any ratings noted next to the race so haven't checked it out but it's looking around somewhere in the mid-low 160s. He's probably improving too. I think I might have backed him in the Topham (need to check) last season so he'll probably be on my radar but I just wonder if he'll be well enough handicapped without that improvement.

I think a lot will depend on the CoC, unfortunately. If he pursues his misguided policy of producing artificially soft ground he'll kill the chances of half the field and will make it more difficult for those carrying the kind of weight GP will end up with.

I much prefer sleepers and big improvers lower down the handicap. I also prefer older horses in softer ground.
 
WPM when interviewed yesterday mentioned that Total Recall is possibly missing the Thyestes now and not chasing again until after GN weights are out.
Owner said the horse was still well handicapped according to WP so that may be of interest.
Possibly Bobbyjo followed by Gold Cup before Aintree or might take the Hedgehunter route and go GC in 2019.
 
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I’d be interested in Total Recall for sure off his current mark but he’s by Westerner and his form to date fits in with his progeny liking cut. Aintree can ride pretty quick, and it’s late this year (14th) so I’d be wary of an ante post involvement but if it turned up soft on the day he’d be a serious, leading fancy.
 
wilsonl said:
I’d be interested in Total Recall for sure off his current mark but he’s by Westerner and his form to date fits in with his progeny liking cut. Aintree can ride pretty quick, and it’s late this year (14th) so I’d be wary of an ante post involvement but if it turned up soft on the day he’d be a serious, leading fancy.
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Might be misunderstood here, but I'm sure the GN course has to run soft now due to safety issues for the horses. Someone more educated may know different.
 
Double J said:
Might be misunderstood here, but I'm sure the GN course has to run soft now due to safety issues for the horses. Someone more educated may know different.
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That’s the intention but it’s been Good to Soft the past three years and due to weather on the day was run faster than standard in 2017 & 2015. By over 7 seconds in 2015.

I appreciate standard times may count for less than usual given the unique nature of the race but there’s still a good chance it could be riding significantly quicker than TR may want

For all that his Newbury win did come on Gd-Sft in a time quicker than standard so maybe he’s an exception and is more versatile.
 
Here's a wee curiosity:

UTPT has gone blue at Betfair for the National this morning and is 'only' 50/1-ish.

All this a week or two after they said he was being given the rest of the season off.
 
I'm looking at Thunder And Roses for a little anti-post bet. He's an Irish National winner (2015), beating Rule The World, who went on to win this. Now I need to watch the replay of last years renewal, but I know that he was badly hampered by a loose horse and very unlucky when unseating rider. He's entered in a grand national trial at Punchestown in ten days, so can hopefully improve on his decent fourth place at Gowran last week. 66/1 looks a price worth speculating at for Aintree.
 
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The excitement takes another step up...

With the entries to hand, Joe Punter can pretty accurately forecast the weights for about 100 of the 105 entries so if he/she wanted to get ahead over the next fortnight they could do so. However, I will be waiting until after next weekend as there's plenty of good racing in the meantime.

It would be great if some bookie got ahead of the rest by offering NRNB or/and BOG at this stage!
 
Marble said:
I'm looking at Thunder And Roses for a little anti-post bet. He's an Irish National winner (2015), beating Rule The World, who went on to win this. Now I need to watch the replay of last years renewal, but I know that he was badly hampered by a loose horse and very unlucky when unseating rider. He's entered in a grand national trial at Punchestown in ten days, so can hopefully improve on his decent fourth place at Gowran last week. 66/1 looks a price worth speculating at for Aintree.
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Yes. In my preview last year I wrote:
Beat Rule The World in the 2015 Irish National and the latter won this off 7lbs higher so must have a chance off this 8lbs higher mark. 5lbs better off for ½ length with Pleasant Company from the influential Bobbyjo Chase (Roi Des Francs and Lord Windermere the best part of a furlong behind) for which the Irish handicapper has raised him 6lbs. Has no immediate entries for UK handicaps but likely to be 10lbs higher if he did. The main difference with Rule The World is that the latter had lots of Grade 1 hurdling form.
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He was one of many bets (!) I had in the race.

However that quote:
Has no immediate entries for UK handicaps but likely to be 10lbs higher if he did.
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would make me wonder what mark he'll be off here. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 10lbs. That would probably rule him out of calculations for me.
 
His Irish mark is 141 as his entry at Punchestown tells us. Fwiw, (as I may take a bit of 66's that freely available), i'd rather he runs well in the Punchestown trial (assuming he might run there?), and finishes in the first three or four. Then head to Aintree in good form, hopefully on a mark of about 148 (tops).

At least this way I'd know that I'll get a run for my money and he'll definately make the cut, stand a good chance and also give me pretty decent value at 66/1.

That would be my preferred option or eventuality in the lead up to this great race. I wouldn't want him going to Aintree in poor form as a 10 year old battling to make the cut at the foot of the weights that's for sure.
 
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Yes, a lot will depend on how Mr Smith views his runs since last spring. The Irish official has, as you say, dropped him 5lbs. I'd suggest Mr Smith might not be so reluctant to do so but what I don't know is whether his raised mark last spring was done in consultation between the two, as it is for higher-rated horses.

I'd agree that 148 is about as high as he'll be.

I'd also expect him to be 66/1 much nearer the day unless he does something dramatic after the weights are out.
 
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Couple of questions.

A) When are the weights out?
B) Do you not think his price would contract a fair bit if he won a decent trial, (before and/or after) the weights coming out?
 
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