The Road to the Grand National 2018

Just read the weights come out about Valentines day, so a couple days after the trial at Punchestown. I'll be keeping an eye on his entries.
 
Marble said:
B) Do you not think his price would contract a fair bit if he won a decent trial, (before and/or after) the weights coming out?
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Yes and I'd say if you really fancy him to win a decent trial (or even run very well in one) it would be wise to take the price but I'd wait until the morning of the trial race. You might well get more than 66/1 on Betfair by that stage and it's easier to lay off at shorter if you've already bet on the exchange.
 
Cheers. I just see a little possibility that with a bit of luck, he could grab a place at Aintree. The hope-bit is that he'll do something beforehand to justify my belief that 66/1 is an excellent each way price. I must admit it's likely I'm putting 2 & 2 together and getting 5. But faith and hope is always needed in these scenario's!
 
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Right now I'm thinking that Blaklion and Definitly Red, both at about 10/1, must be among the worst bets so far this season.

Blaklion killed his chance by winning at Aintree earlier in the season and Definitly Red killed his on Saturday there. His new mark of 167, which will probably be compressed to 165 on the day, means he'll need to be a better horse than the likes of Sizing John to have any chance. And he'll have to get round. I backed DR last season and his form this season suggests it wasn't a bad bet off 149 but there's no guarantee he'd have beaten One For Arthur on the day. He's now rated as though he smashed it out of sight.

I'm very happy with one of my early ante-post bets for this year's race. I backed The Last Samuri at 40/1 early in December and still think 20/1 might be generous. He's shaped so far this season as though he's improved a good bit yet he's been campaigned to disguise it nicely while getting him close to serious fitness. I think he'd run very well in the Gold Cup but the national is worth so much more money.
 
I like Blaklion a lot -looks a real Aintree specialist to me -could be matched at a short price in running -anyone laying him will need balls of steel.
 
I fancied Gold Present at the beginning of the season and nothing other than a decent increase in weight has changed my mind.

I'll be keeping an eye on how a few run over the next month or 2.
 
I have a feeling that thing is an utter beast DJ and capable of anything ! I'd be interested to see where it goes next.
 
Gold Present for me too.
Reckon he'll be getting about 10lbs from Blaklion so will race off about 11 stone dead.
 
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I was very surprised to see no Native River.

Total Recall and Gold Present would be my picks at this early stage, depending on what Phil Smith does to the Mullins horse.
 
Total Recall will be hammered for Newbury. You need only see what he did to Whisper to know.

Edit - just checked. It looks like Total Recall is on 156 (from 147). Makes sense. Whisper went up 8lbs.

I'm not sure 156 gets to the bottom of TR. It's a question of whether the hard race at Newbury did.
 
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Framing the weights should be fairly straightforward.

Below is the 'At A Glance' card from the RP site. I ordered it by OR (hope it transfers across with the link - if not just click on the OR column and it should do it automatically). We know Mr Smith compresses the top weights.

My guess is that he'll give BDM 11-10 (top weight) and let DR run off the same. He might let DR run off 165 / 11-10 and allow BDM to run of 164 but apart from that I think the only other alterations will be with anything with very good course form or which shows more between now and the publication of the weights. There's a slight danger he might hit Blaklion with an extra pound or two but I doubt it off such a high mark already.

I'd also suggest anything on 142 or less (from Arbre De Vie down - and that includes Thunder And Roses off just 141, which should please Marble) will need to show some form pretty soon or leave themselves open to missing the cut.

So you can pretty much go ahead and get studying.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2018-04-14/692569/at-a-glance


Edit again - it looks like the ratings of the Irish horses are as per the Irish handicapper so I'd add a notional 6lbs to the ratings to those rated below 150 (above that I think the mark is agreed by both the Irish & UK handicapper) and then adjust once the ratings for this race are known.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Total Recall will be hammered for Newbury. You need only see what he did to Whisper to know.

Edit - just checked. It looks like Total Recall is on 156 (from 147). Makes sense. Whisper went up 8lbs.

I'm not sure 156 gets to the bottom of TR. It's a question of whether the hard race at Newbury did.
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But similar to my question in the Cheltenham Handicaps thread, I have another re Total Recall's likely weight for Aintree:-

Mullins is clearly planning on running him over hurdles for now to protect his chase mark - he's a very short price for the h'cap hurdle on Saturday. And HRI won't touch his chase mark if he hoses up.

But when the BHA evaluate the horse on 13th Feb they use discretion to allot a weight to the Irish horses so assuming they have a figure in their heads for the horse now and let's call it 156, what's to prevent them from taking this Saturday's hurdling performance into account (assuming he performs well) and bumping his rating up a few lbs ?

I remember last year (or maybe 2016) they basically stopped Elliott running a horse or two at the festival by granting them high ORs based on their "potential".
 
Excellent point, wilsonl.

But TR is only off 125 over hurdles so if he's within a stone [over hurdles] of his chase ability he's entitled to have a good chance in that race. But his hurdles mark is so low I don't think it will impact upon his National weight.

There has to be a chance if something is off the same rating under both codes and suddenly improves the handicapper will take it into account. Rightly so, imvho.
 
Total Recall will be running off only 125 in that hurdle on Sunday , so how well would he have to win before Mr Smith could meddle with his chase mark of 156?
 
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I had considered how low his hurdles rating is - and therefore what he'd need to do to warrant a rise from the BHA - but it wouldn't be the first time he's given a horse an unfair rating purely because he doesn't like to be seen that people are trying to take the p1ss.

Of course it doesn't always stop them as Davy Russell would attest to.

Maybe I'm just being too cynical though.
 
Marble said:
I'm looking at Thunder And Roses for a little anti-post bet. He's an Irish National winner (2015), beating Rule The World, who went on to win this. Now I need to watch the replay of last years renewal, but I know that he was badly hampered by a loose horse and very unlucky when unseating rider. He's entered in a grand national trial at Punchestown in ten days, so can hopefully improve on his decent fourth place at Gowran last week. 66/1 looks a price worth speculating at for Aintree.
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Out tomorrow in Ireland. See how it goes.
 
I've did £2.50 each way for today and The National.

I've no doubt Tanlic will be ribbing me over this in 12 months time if (and when) it goes seriously wrong. :)
 
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Good luck, Marble.

If I owned him I wouldn't be looking to get within 10 lengths of the winner (so 10 lengths second would be okay) as I think he'll be off about 144 at Aintree and would probably be safe. There's always scope to run better after the weights are out and jump the queue of those on the same rating to improve your chance of making the cut.
 
Cheers just got in haven't seen it yet, pulled up apparently, where does that leave the situation.
 
Mr Smith will probably take no account of today's run. I wouldn't think it would affect his GN chances at all.

Edit - I suppose if Mr Smith was in a mood to spite Mr O'Leary (don't think he'd be the type) he could drop TAR to 137 and give him no chance of making the cut.
 
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The weights are supposed to be revealed today at a posh do in London.

Anyone know if it's a lunchtime beano or an evening one?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Weights announced publically at 7.30pm
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You would think the industry could get its act together.

7.30pm is too late to make the next day's RP and/or Weekender so in the case of the RP it will be Thursday before they'll be in the public print domain and the following Wednesday for the Weekender.

Having said that, iirc, the weights merited hardly a mention in last year's Weekender.
 
No the press are notified earlier in the day, but prohibited from making any announcements.

From Aintree Racecourse

On Tuesday, February 13, Racenews will send an embargoed release at 11am with reaction to the Randox Health Grand National weights from Phil Smith, John Baker (Regional Director North West, The Jockey Club) and a couple of trainers. This will have a STRICT EMBARGO FOR PUBLICATION of 7.30pm on Tuesday, February 13, when the Randox Health Grand National weights are made public.
 
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