The Road to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2014

Yes, I think you have to take account of the 'race(s) within a race' scenario. Some of the collateral lines can be taken at face value whereas to do so with others can lead you into trouble.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Yes, there is one in the media who fits this description perfectly but there are plenty of people who compile speed ratings that make the game pay and some.

Speed ratings, sectional timings, draw stats, pedigree analysis etc. etc. are all useless if you don't understand probability and know how to bet.
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Isn't the guy you're referring to well-versed in probability anyway?
 
reet hard said:
Agree completely, but - steeped in mathematics as he is - it kinda holes the theory that understanding probability is key to making money betting horses.
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Aye fair enough, probably shouldn't have used the term probability. If you can't tell whether a horse should be 3/1 or 8/1, you've had it at this game basically. Folks like Willo wouldn't have a clue. Just goes to show that you can have all the intellect in the world and have every tool at your disposal but you can still be a skint member. It's sad really but as other allude to, it's the intellectual superiority of it all that most object to.
 
Interesting to remember that I recall reading in one of the bios of Lester that he and O'Brien wanted Alleged up stay in training but Sangster vetoed the idea
 
Ardross said:
Or which japanese horses will be ridiculously overhyped next year ?
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Do me a favour. There was far more substance to Harp Star and Just a Way's form than either Ectot or Avenir Certain's. I'd sooner back a Japanese than a Frenchie 3yo colt these days, that category of horse has gone in the toilet since the Jockey Club was reduced to 10f.
 
Euronymous said:
Do me a favour. There was far more substance to Harp Star and Just a Way's form than either Ectot or Avenir Certain's. I'd sooner back a Japanese than a Frenchie 3yo colt these days, that category of horse has gone in the toilet since the Jockey Club was reduced to 10f.
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Can't have that. Avenir Certain didn't get home but bar Treve travelled sweet until fading out of it.
Ectot clearly didn't run his race though there is no doubt he is a class horse.
Harp Star for sure had claims and I had her to be in the mix. Just A Way was never gonna win this.
 
Perhaps the Japanese may go the old route of bringing their horses over for a prep race like before and retain French jockeys like Peslier, Lemaire and co to ride them they may have a better chance.
Horses are definitely up to winning Arc; it just needs a little fine tuning.
Fair play to the Treve team; Heads are Arc legends as said here before.
 
I remember the doubts around What Taghrooda had beat before her Oaks. You know when you have seen a good one. I hope he gets to show it if staying in training.
 
Love the ignorance of the Far-East form continues, long may it continue. Harp Star's form was no worse than Taghrooda's. Gold Ship has posted high 120 performances in the past.

Also amused by the "Japanese are doing it all wrong" chat, was even in the RP the other day. Granted the jockey bookings were poor but they'd argue they know the horses. Harp Star and Gold Ship DID have a prep run!

At the end of the day, if you look at the % of rivals beaten they've been having it right off over the last ten years!
 
Maybe the ignorance of what is right under your nose.
You take the form of each horse on merit not where they are from.
Ultimately they are still waiting to win the race.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Love the ignorance of the Far-East form continues, long may it continue. Harp Star's form was no worse than Taghrooda's. Gold Ship has posted high 120 performances in the past.

Also amused by the "Japanese are doing it all wrong" chat, was even in the RP the other day. Granted the jockey bookings were poor but they'd argue they know the horses. Harp Star and Gold Ship DID have a prep run!

At the end of the day, if you look at the % of rivals beaten they've been having it right off over the last ten years!
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Gamla
is a lost case

treve is the best horse ever

and solemia was a far superior horse than Orfevre
 
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