The Ryanair Chase thread 2018

The best thing that could happen for The Biter is to get a lead all the way to the last. He can’t be beaten on tactics.

Cue Card would have been an irrelevance in the Gold Cup regardless, and Ryanir definitely the only logicsl place for his Festival swansong.
 
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Posted this over at my place yesterday and thought it worth putting up over here even though I've probably just thrown away a few quid.

I was having a think about this. I'd already posted that I put what I believed to be a throw away bet on the exchanges on Le prezien for this. I'm a fan of the horse and although betslo has stated he's not good enough I'd probably disagree although maybe I'd be pushing it to say he could win but I certainly think he's capable of running a big race here. I've backed him at prices around and over 400 on the machine (now to take out a touch over 5k) which would suggest he will be a NR. I've also backed him for the plate NRNB which looks like the more realistic target. However, I've noticed STD said that Romain de Senam is his best chance of a handicap winner (in the plate) as he's been crying out for better ground, I think that's fair enough comment. On going through the race I noticed just how many entries PFN holds in it, I also noticed that JP holds multiple entries in it including a few that would hold a solid chance.

I've then taken a look at the Ryan Air and JP only holds 2 entries Coney Island and Le prezien. Firstly Coney Island was supposedly on course to have a crack at the Gold cup. He then got his arse handed to him at Ascot completely took off his feet blundered and PU. Its doubtful we'd see him at Cheltenham at all now and even more doubtful that they'd think of re-opposing those that battered him at Ascot. Now, Le prezien probably only has 3 options he can either run in the Plate, The Jonny Henderson or the Ryan Air. With JP having loaded entries in both handicaps and Le prezien having a handicap mark that's effectively seen as a tough one to win a handicap off I'm half wondering whether they would just let him take his chance in the graded event. I certainly hope they might anyway.

Is he Good enough ? Well for sure he has a fair bit to find and he also struggles with his jumping sometimes. His run in the Paddy Power was when all things considered a very big run. Given the mistakes he made his position in the race and where he finished I thought it was a very good performance. Although he indeed flopped in the Caspian Caviar this might have been a case that he was feeling the effects of his run in the Paddy Power as both were run on desperate ground. The Paddy power form di hold up though to some degree in that race as Starchitect was on his way to hosing up when going wrong just before the last and other runners from the Paddy power held similar finishing positions with the exceptions of LP and Splash of ginge both flopped.

I once read a piece by Nick Mordin that stuck with me, he swore that the best time to catch a bad jumper was when fresh he made a case with it being something to do with Muscle repair. It was an interesting piece and it stuck with me whether it has the desired effect every time is another question.


I'd be more than happy with the prices I hold to see Le prezien take his chance here I think solid form from the Paddy power, being fresh and better ground to go on would certainly see him produce an improved performance and I think he'd run a really big race off what is certain to be a very strong pace.

If not I think he'll run a big race whatever he consents to line up in, he's a horse I like a lot and I'm not giving up on him after one poor performance in a bog.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Someone was asking about Dounikos on one of the threads, going for the RSA.
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Think it was Shane as he's bet him for the four miler. Ryan Air thread might not be the best place for the news DG but dare say he'll stumble across it.
 
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Wish you luck with that but Brian Hughes said the ground was against him last time out which means he's ground dependent so 12/1 on such a crucial unknown makes him poor value IMO.


Plus round Cheltenham.......can't see a race out at Aintree or Newbury he certainly won't see one out in a Ryanair round Chelters.................He'S RUN A LINE THROUGH HIM MATERIAL IN MY BOOK
 
I sincerely hope connections of Waiting Patiently just run the fu*cking horse, and cease-and-desist with all this “We don’t care about the Festival” contrarian sh*ite. It’s a moderate renewal if he doesn’t go.
 
f**k I don't want him to run I got UDS and Top Notch NR in some accies..........Waiting Paitently will love a lead if he runs and that is a huge worry.........unless it pi$$es down
 
The last thing you will want for UDS is rain. Not only would it suit WP, but UDS already very marginal on stamina, imo.
 
I disagree, PJ.

He is a wonderful sight when he is in full flow, but UDS runs a little too free for his own good. I wouldn't go so far as to say he 'held-on' last year, but they were definitely reeling him in over the last 2f furlongs, and on my viewing, it would have been very-close with Sub Loot, if he'd had to go one more furlong.

I put UDS pretty-much right on the edge of staying the Ryanair trip, and for all that he loves softer ground, I definitely have him down as vulnerable if it rides that way on Thursday.

If Waiting Patiently runs, I'd have him down as one of the bets of the Festival, to be honest. Soft ground would suit him down to the ground too, and the race will be absolutely run to suit him.

Cue Card will almost certainly set a frenetic pace, which I can see UDS not standing for. That pair will cut each-others throats until they're heading to the last; at which point Waiting Patiently will be produced on the bridle, and race clear; Cue Card not being able to go with him, and UDS running-out of steam up the hill.

But I fear that connections will bottle it with WP. It's a much poorer race for his absence, imo.....much poorer.
 
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WP connections would be crazy to bypass

They will never get a better chance with the horse

At this stage, it wont be stamina that beats him, maybe WP would get the trip better but UDS will be fine over course and ground
 
Waiting Patiently won't run though. Brian Hughes is pretty much telling everyone who will listen. I reckon UDS is one of the best value favourites at the Festival at the moment. There's absolutely nothing to beat him.

I'm not buying in to ground or stamina issues either. He's well past his choke out days. He settles easily, has good tactical speed,and wouldn't have been out of place in the King George at Christmas.
 
Maruco said:
I'm not buying in to ground or stamina issues either. He's well past his choke out days. He settles easily, has good tactical speed,and wouldn't have been out of place in the King George at Christmas.
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ruby couldn't keep a hold on him last year. bolted off into the distance after about 3 fences.

i'm a huge fan of the horse, as many are, but i'd not really considered backing him this year, felt he was going to be very vulnerable in a decent renewal but as time has gone on it's starting to look anything but

i might still consider Yorkhill if he pitches up and here and we get a price :blink:
 
Wylie must be pushing for him to run here. The race is completely falling apart and he's proven at the festival over this trip. The problem is that it's likely Ruby won't be back on board but that's probably true also if he ran in the Champion Hurdle.

All of a sudden Cue Card looks huge at 8's.
 
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